In Canada, the official March seeding intentions report pointed to a marginal reduction in the wheat area compared to the previous year. Planting started in early may but progress during the month was slow due to wet conditions. Furthermore, the cool wet weather is reported to be favouring disease build-up, which may prove detrimental to crops. However, assuming an improvement in the weather and normal conditions prevail in June and July, farmers could still manage to meet their planting intentions and wheat output in 1999 is forecast at about 23.5 million tonnes. The area sown to coarse grains is also forecast to be reduced somewhat this year as farmers are expected to switch land to other non- cereal crops. Although much still depends on the weather for the remainder of the planting season, aggregate coarse grains production in 1999 is tentatively forecast to fall to about 25 million tonnes, compared to nearly 27 million tonnes in 1998.
Aggregate (winter and spring) wheat production in 1999 is officially forecast at 61.1 million tonnes, 12 percent down from the previous year, mostly reflecting a significant reduction in winter wheat plantings and lower yields expected after last year�s records. The estimate of winter wheat plantings remains unchanged at 17.6 million hectares, about 7 percent down from the previous year and the lowest level since 1972/73. However, favourable winter weather conditions have resulted in lower winter kill-out rates and the reduction in the harvested area is expected to be less significant. With regard to the spring wheat crop, planting was almost complete by mid-May and the area is forecast to increase by some 1 percent to 7.95 million hectares. Maize planting got off to a slow start in late April due to wet weather. However, conditions improved in May and by the end of the month, planting was virtually complete, ahead of the 5- year average. The final area sown to maize should be about 30 million hectares, 2 percent down from the previous year, as indicated in the USDA�s 1999 Prospective Plantings Report. Assuming yields are on trend, the 1999 maize output is expected to decrease by some 3 percent. Aggregate 1999 coarse grains output in the United States is forecast at about 263 million tonnes. Planting of the 1999 paddy crop is nearing completion and a record output of about 9.4 million tonnes is anticipated, 11 percent up from the previous season. The forecast is based on USDA�s March Prospective Plantings, which reports that farmers are expected to plant about 1.5 million hectares to rice, up by over 100 000 hectares from the previous season and the second highest on record. A survey of the actual planted area will be conducted in June.
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