SOUTHERN AFRICA
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in May forecast the 1999 cereal production at 533 000 tonnes, which is 11 percent below last year�s, mainly reflecting the impact of renewed displacement of rural people. Production of cassava, an important staple, is estimated to have declined slightly from last year, while bean production declined by an estimated 21 percent. For the 1999/2000 marketing year, domestic cereal supply, estimated at 562 000 tonnes, falls seriously short of national consumption requirements. Cereal import requirement for 1999/2000 marketing year is estimated at 505 000 tonnes, which compares with actual cereal imports of 420 000 tonnes during the previous marketing year. Of the estimated cereal import requirement, the Mission estimated that 325 000 tonnes would be imported commercially, leaving 180 000 tonnes to be covered by food aid.
In addition, the Mission highlighted the need to allocate land for cultivation by IDPs and the provision of the necessary agricultural inputs for the next season starting in October.
Harvesting of 1999 coarse grains is underway. Prospects are unfavourable. Abundant rains at the beginning of the season allowed an expansion in area planted to cereals and benefited crop establishment. However, a dry spell and high temperatures in February, followed by irregular and below average precipitation negatively affected crops. As a result, production is forecast to remain below average though above the poor crop in 1998.
Despite the reduced harvest, the overall food supply situation is anticipated to remain stable in 1999/2000 (April/March) reflecting the country's import capacity.
Harvesting of 1999 cereal crops is underway. Abundant rains from October to January pointed to a marked recovery in cereal production this year. However, below-average precipitation and high temperatures from February to mid- April, mainly in March at the critical growth stage, negatively affected crops. Favourable rains from late April could not prevent a reduction in yields, particularly of maize. As a result, cereal production is forecast to be below average though higher than the reduced harvest last year.
The food supply situation is satisfactory following adequate commercial imports in 1998/99, estimated at 109 000 tonnes of maize and 47 000 tonnes of wheat.
Harvesting of the 1999 main rice crop is well advanced. Prospects are favourable despite delayed rains and prolonged dry spells in some central areas. Overall, rainfall has been generally abundant during the season. Heavy rains in southwestern parts resulted in localized floods but overall benefited crop development. The incidence and negative impact of cyclones have been limited this season. Similarly, the locust situation has been generally calm. Control measures, coordinated by the Government and FAO teams, considerably restricted the impact of locust on crops. 1999 rice output is expected to be higher than last year.
The food supply situation is expected to improve during the 1999/2000 marketing year (April/March), particularly in drought-prone southern areas, where the price of rice increased last year. For the first time in recent years no department in the south will be classified as being in serious food supply difficulty.
A bumper 1999 cereal crop is being harvested. This reflects generally abundant rains during the season, particularly in southern areas. In northern parts, despite a delay in the rainy season, precipitation was above average allowing some recovery of crops. Improved input availability also contributed to a sharp increase in yields. Latest official forecast indicate a maize crop close to 2.4 million tonnes, one-third higher than last year's normal level. Cassava output is expected to increase by 12 percent to 944 000 tonnes. Production of other cereal and non-cereal crops is also anticipated to be good.
The country, which has been importing maize in recent years, is expected to have some 500 000 tonnes of exportable maize surpluses in marketing year 1999/2000 (April/March).
Harvesting of the 1999 coarse grains is well advanced. Abundant rains during the growing season resulted in localized floods and crop losses in central and southern parts, but overall benefited crop development. Production of the main maize crop is expected to increase for the fifth consecutive year, also reflecting a slight increase in the area planted. Exportable surplus of maize are anticipated. Outputs of beans, cassava, groundnuts and vegetables are also estimated to be good.
Reflecting the good harvest, prices of basic staple are declining. The overall food supply situation is to remain stable in marketing year 1999/2000. However, in several districts of the Inhambane Province, where excessive rains resulted in losses of crops, housing and infrastructure, food aid is required for some 70 000 most affected population. The Government has asked for international assistance. Continued assistance is also needed for large groups of vulnerable population.
Harvesting of the 1999 coarse grains is almost completed. Provisional forecasts point to an output 25 percent higher than last year's poor level but still below average. Output of millet and sorghum is forecast to double to 60 000 tonnes but that of maize, at 7 000 tonnes, is just half that of 1998. The area planted and yields were affected by erratic and poorly distributed rains from the beginning of the season. Prolonged dry spells and high temperatures in January, February and March lowered yields.
The tight food supply situation, following the drought- reduced 1998 cereal crop, has eased somewhat with the arrival of the new harvest. Cereal import requirements are forecast to decline to some 130 000 tonnes in the 1999/2000 marketing year (May/April).
Harvesting of 1999 coarse grains is near completion. Official estimates indicate maize production at 6.8 million tonnes, some 16 percent lower than last year and below average. Rains during the season were abundant but irregular. Heavy rains and floods in mid- February coupled with a dry spell in late February/early March negatively affected yields. The decline in production also reflects a slight reduction in the area planted, due to diversion of land to the more profitable sunflower, production of which is estimated at 945 000 tonnes.
Harvest of the 1999 maize crop is completed. Preliminary estimates indicate an output around the normal level of last year. Abundant rains in the first part of the season led to an increase in the area planted but a prolonged dry spell from January to March sharply reduced yield potential. Most affected by the dry weather are the southern parts of the country, where poor harvests have been gathered. Overall, preliminary estimates indicate a 199 maize output around the level of last year.
Harvesting of the 1999 coarse grains, mainly maize, is well advanced. The outlook is favourable and the output is anticipated to recover from the poor crop of last year. Maize production is expected at a normal to above-normal level of 1 million tonnes, which is 82 percent higher than in 1998. Abundant rains during the growing season, particularly in southern areas, resulted in localized floods and crop losses but overall benefited crop development. However, in northern areas late and erratic rains have resulted in reduced yields in parts. Production of other basic staples, mainly cassava, is also good this season.
The food supply has eased with the arrival of the new harvest into the markets. Prices of maize are declining and are below their level of a year ago. Maize import requirements in marketing year 1999/2000 (April/March) are forecast to decline sharply from the previous year to about 250 000 tonnes.
Harvesting of the 1999 coarse grain crops, mainly maize, is near completion. Despite a significant increase in the area planted and good rains at the beginning of the season, crop yields were adversely affected by excessive rains in January and February. Latest forecasts indicate a maize output of 1.54 million tonnes, 5 percent above last year, but still below average. Millet and sorghum production is also forecast to decline.
Prices of basic food commodities have increase sharply since the same period last year, reflecting the unsatisfactory harvest and low carryover stocks. The food supply situation in the 1999/2000 marketing year (April/March) is anticipated to be tight. Maize import requirements are estimated at about 500 000 tonnes.
Back
to the table of contents