FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/99 - SOMALIA* (5 June)
The outlook for the 1999 main “Gu” cereal crop, accounting for some 80 percent of annual production in normal years, is unfavourable. The area of maize and sorghum is expected to decline as a result of delayed and erratic rains since the beginning of the season, coupled with unusually high temperatures that resulted in the wilting of crops. Water levels in the Shabelle River are also reported to be below normal, reflecting below-average precipitation. In addition, armyworm infestations have been reported in Lower and Middle Juba, Lower Shebelle, Bakool and Hiran regions. Insecurity in parts has also disrupted planting.
In the North-west, scattered showers in March were followed by light rains in April which improved pastures, water supplies and livestock conditions. However, the rains did not provide enough moisture for crops to develop. A joint mission by FAO and the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) in May estimated the area of cereals planted at 5 000 hectares, about 30 percent below last year. In North-eastern parts, rains in April improved pastures.
The already difficult food supply situation is anticipated to deteriorate in coming months, with population movements accelerated by renewed fighting around the town of Baidoa. Current estimates indicate that some 70 000 people have been displaced by food shortages and insecurity. A WFP relief food shipment of 5 000 tonnes of maize, to be distributed over the next four months for 500 000 people in southern Somalia, arrived in early June.
Saudi Arabia formally lifted a livestock import ban, imposed early last year on the Horn countries, on 25 May 1999. This is expected to bring much needed relief to livestock producers. Local markets in the Northwest and Northeast are reported to have responded immediately with an increase in livestock prices and activity.
A reduced 1999 Gu cereal crop would be the seventh bad harvest in succession. This would compound an already precarious food supply situation.
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