FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/99 - THE UKRAINE (25 June)
Given normal weather until the completion of the harvest, the 1999 cereal and pulse harvest is expected to recover from last year's drought reduced 29.5 million tonnes. (FAO estimate), despite the widespread economic difficulties, shortages of inputs, heavy weed infestation and untimely frosts in May.
Spring grain planting is virtually completed. Despite an earlier start, planting progress is not as rapid as last year but indications are that the target of 4.8 million hectares sown (and reseeded) to spring grains (excluding maize) on the public farms will be achieved. As winter grains were sown on about 7 million hectares, the aggregate area sown to grains is likely to decrease by about 1 million hectares to 14 million. However, given better weather, the area harvested could remain similar to last year's and average yields are likely to recover somewhat. Soil moisture reserves for spring crops have been replenished. Overall, growing conditions have been satisfactory although unseasonably cold weather in May caused some crop damage and crops in some central areas now need more rain urgently. Official reports of crop damage on 1.3 million hectares are proving exaggerated and in part represent farms' attempts to reduce debt repayment obligations and retain output for private disposal. Winter grains have benefited from the good spring weather and are, on the whole, in good condition. Th latest official estimates indicate that only 0.8 million hectares, or about 11 percent of the crop were affected by winterkill compared to 1 million hectares last year. Grain production on private farms and household plots is likely to increase.
Given normal weather conditions, 1999 grain production is tentatively projected at 31.8 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes more than last year. Output of wheat could increase by at least 1 million tonnes to reach 18 million tonnes and that of coarse grains could increase by 1 million tonnes to 14.5 million tonnes, if the expected shift to barley this spring occurs. In view of current dry conditions, these forecasts are highly tentative. Farmers' practice of hiding substantial quantities of marketable grain in response to the official prohibitions on grain shipments until all debts to the budget and pension fund have been cleared, add further uncertainty to forecast and supply analysis. Despite the lower harvest, the country is likely to export close to 5 million tonnes of cereal in the current marketing year. By end April, 4.5 million tonnes of cereals (including 3.4 million tonnes of wheat) had already been exported officially.
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