FAO�s latest forecast puts aggregate 1999 cereal production in the EC at almost 202 million tonnes, some 4 percent below last year but above average for the past 5 years. The decline is largely due to reduced area (5 percent increase in the compulsory set-aside requirements) and adverse weather. Wheat output is now estimated at 97.6 million tonnes, 5 percent below 1998. The reduction occurred mostly in France, where output is estimated at 37 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes below 1998. Other significant reductions among the EC�s major producers are reported in Denmark, Spain and Germany. Aggregate output of coarse grains is now forecast at 101.6 million tonnes, 4 percent below last year. In the EC, harvesting of the 1999 paddy crop is in progress and the expectation is for output to be close to last year�s official estimate of about 2.6 million tonnes.
The 1999 cereal output is estimated to have fallen to about 0.5 million tonnes (including 0.3 million tonnes of wheat). Adverse weather affected autumn wheat planting and farmers� preference away from traditional cereals towards more lucrative cash crops continues to limit cereal area. Food assistance continues to be provided to remaining Kosovar refugees and vulnerable population groups.
The aggregate 1999 grain and pulse harvest is officially reported to be only 3.7 million tonnes. This record low output, is the result of severe economic problems coupled with adverse weather (May frosts, hot and dry conditions in June/July). Given the high levels of inflation, the degree of market interference exercised by the government and the consequent shortages of most items in the official distribution chain, it is likely that the actual level of output is higher. Official data indicate that yields of potatoes, vegetables and fodder are also down, and livestock numbers are being reduced. . In view of the second poor cereal harvest in succession, nearly 25 percent less than last year's, the official reports indicate that the country will need up to US$100 million to import up to 1.5 million tonnes of cereals including�0.5 million tonnes of foodgrains. It is uncertain if this large quantity of feedgrains will be mobilized. Aggregate cereal imports in 1999/2000 are tentatively estimated at 1.2 million tonnes. Demand for livestock products remains high, mainly for export to the Russian Federation in payment for fuel, but foreign exchange constraints limit feedgrain imports. As of 1 January 2000, the Belarus rouble is to be redenominated with one new rouble replacing 1000 old Belarussian roubles.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (3 November)
Indications are that the 1999 cereal harvest could remain close to last year's 1.1 million tonnes. Although the area sown to spring maize increased, untimely rains resulted in lower yields. The area sown to winter crops remained stable. The economy has been negatively affected by civil unrest in the region but indications are that the crop and overall food supply situation have not been unduly disrupted.
Latest (official) estimates put 1999 wheat output at 3 million tonnes, higher than earlier expectations but still lower than last year and below average. The fall was largely due to reduced planting and a fall in fertilizer use. As of early November winter wheat planting for harvest in 2000 was reported to be well advanced, with some 600�000 hectares already planted under generally favourable conditions. The pace of planting is ahead of last year. Total area planted is expected to reach about 1 million hectares. Some 150�000 hectares of barley has also been planted.
The 1999 cereal harvest fell by over one third to 2.1 million tonnes, in response to economic problems which reduced winter and spring grain plantings and untimely rains which reduced yields. Early indications are that the area sown to winter wheat, for harvest in 2000 is likely to recover from last year's 150�000 hectares, but by 20 October, the target area of 293�000 hectares had not yet been achieved. Overall, the cereal supply situation in 1999/2000 is likely to remain satisfactory, as there are substantial wheat carry-in stocks. Even with the reduced 1999 crop, farmers are experiencing difficulties obtaining payment for sales to the millers and processors.
Latest official estimates put aggregate cereal output in 1999 is estimated at 6.9 million tonnes, slightly up from last year with better yields more than offsetting a reduction in area. Of the total, wheat is estimated to account for just over 4 million tonnes.
The early outlook for winter cereals for harvest in 2000 is satisfactory. The 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated at 625�000 tonnes, some 10 percent less than output in 1998 in view of reduction in the area sown in response to import competition. In 1999/2000, cereal imports are forecast at nearly 200�000 tonnes.
Latest estimates put 1999 wheat output at 2.6 million tonnes, almost 50 percent lower than 1998. The fall was due to sharply reduced plantings and severe rains and flooding. In contrast, coarse grain output is estimated to be up slightly reflecting a larger maize crop which more than offset reduced output of the other coarse grains. As of late October, winter grain planting was reported to be progressing normally with wheat planted on some 60 percent of the expected 1.1 million hectares.
The 1999 grain harvest is expected to fall by 5 percent to 925�000 tonnes as the winter grain area declined in response to low cereal prices. Private trade in grain is not encouraged and farmers feed grain on farm or sell to mills. The official intervention prices this year are Lats 67 for top grade wheat and rye. This is higher than the market price of Lats 60-63 but the volume that will be purchased depends on the availability of funds. High production costs, (old machinery, small farms etc) make exports, also of meat, not competitive although small quantities are bartered. Imports are limited to about 70�000 tonnes, mainly of bread quality wheat per annum.
The 1999 grain harvest is estimated to have fallen by almost 25 percent to 2.1 million tonnes in response to a percent reduction in the area sown and lower yields. Low grain prices and recession in the livestock industry following the devaluation of the Russian rouble as well as the accumulation of livestock and grain stocks has contributed to the reduction in area. In contrast, the areas sown to oilseeds and that under perennial pasture increased. Despite the lower harvest, the overall food supply situation is likely to remain satisfactory in view of the substantial carry-forward stocks of cereals.
Difficulties in marketing last year's crop and adverse growing conditions have reduced the area sown to grains and average yields. The aggregate 1999 grain harvest is anticipated to fall to 2.1 million tonnes, (from 2.5 million tonnes in 1998) in response to an 11 percent reduction in the area sown to wheat and dry conditions, which affected spring grains. Despite the reduced harvest, 1999 cereal production will be adequate to meet domestic food needs and significant commercial imports of cereals are not expected in the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June). However, government purchases of bread grains are proceeding slowly. The government planned to purchase 100�000 tonnes of food wheat at US$ 91 per tonne from this year's harvest but has obtained only 42�000 tonnes to date.
The 1999 cereal output is estimated at about 26.5 million tonnes, somewhat below last year�s bumper harvest but above average of the past five years.
1999 cereal output is estimated at about 16.5 million tonnes. The wheat harvest is now forecast at only 4.6 million tonnes, compared to 5.2 million tonnes in the previous year, due to smaller plantings and also reflecting crop damage due to floods and torrential rains in the summer. In contrast, the summer maize crop is expected to recover to about 10 million tonnes from last year�s low level. Winter wheat planting is well underway and is expected to cover about 1.3 million hectares this autumn.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (4 November)
Current production this year is projected to be above last year's poor crop, despite a sharp reduction in area and locust infestation in parts. Although growing conditions have been mixed, overall yields were 8 percent higher than last year. Yields were much higher in the area from North Caucasus to the Ural Region and in part of East Siberia. East of the Urals growing conditions were generally better but inflation, shortage of inputs and untimely rains in parts, led to delays in harvest and lower yields than last year. Official sources forecast 1999 grain and pulse production at 58 million tonnes (bunker weight) or 53 million tonnes cleaned weight. However, in view of restrictive grain marketing policies and shortage of cash, there is consensus that production estimates are underestimated by as much as 10-20 percent. FAO, therefore, forecasts 1999 grain output at about 59 million tonnes, 11 million tonnes higher than official output in 1998. Aggregate grain area fell by 8 percent to 46.8 million hectares. This decline is due to increased winterkill in 1999 (2.75 million hectares compared to 2.1 million hectares in 1998) and a 3 million hectares decline, to 35.4 million hectares, in spring area. Hot/dry weather in summer further reduced the harvested area. The grain supply situation in 1999/2000 will remain tight, with no possibility of stock replenishment following the sharp drawdown last year. In addition, economic problems and policies which act as a disincentive to farmers, point to little improvement in output next year. Therefore, the tight supply situation is likely to continue and priority will have to be given to meeting human consumption needs. The livestock sector is likely to remain under pressure. FAO estimates minimum cereal requirement in 1999/2000 (including 1 million tonnes of pulses) at 70 million tonnes. Against this requirement, cereal availability, with rice in milled equivalent and opening stocks is estimated at 63 million tonnes, leaving an import requirement of at least 6 million tonnes to be covered by commercial imports and food aid. Outstanding deliveries of food aid pledged in 1998/99 amount to about 2.7 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes wheat, 125�000 tonnes of rice, about 800�000 tonnes of maize and 300�000 tonnes of rye), leaving an import requirement of 3.2 million tonnes to be met commercially. Between 3.7 and 4 million tonnes of cereals were mobilized commercially in 1995/96 and 1996/97. With a good harvest and a sizeable export surplus of up to 7 million tonnes in neighbouring Kazakhstan, this level of commercial imports should be feasible in 1999/2000. In view of tight supplies and distribution problems, the government has requested over 4 million tonnes of grain in food aid, including 1 million tonnes of food quality wheat, and 1 million tonnes of soybeans. Such a large additional quantity of aid for the second year in succession risks making the country dependent on food aid. However, given that there is a shortage of feed grain along with a distribution problem, it may be possible to provide assistance in the form of maize, soybeans and meal, which do not compete directly with the domestic production The unfolding humanitarian crisis in Chechnya has led to the displacement of some 250�000 people, mostly to neighbouring Ingushetia. The government of Ingushetia, a small country of 300�000 inhabitants, has requested international assistance to feed and shelter the large number of refugees. These people are urgently in need of humanitarian assistance, food, shelter, blankets and health supplies. Their plight will get worse as the winter advances. The intensified military action in Chechnya has resulted in deaths and serious damage to infrastructure, property and agriculture. Although the plight of the refugees in Ingushetia and other neighbouring areas is a cause of immediate concern, the food security of the civilian population trapped in the capital, Grozny, is rapidly deteriorating. Substantial humanitarian assistance will be required in the coming months. The outlook for winter grains, for harvest in the spring of 2000 is unfavourable. Some 12.4 million hectares have been planted, compared to 13.2 at the same time last year.
The 1999 cereal production is estimated at 3.4 million tonnes, just below last year and slightly below the average of the past five years. A sharp reduction in wheat output to 1.2 million tonnes has been only partially offset by a larger coarse grains crop (mostly barley and maize).
The 1999 cereal output is estimated at about 500 000 tonnes (including 155 000 tonnes of wheat), 15 percent below last year�s good crop and below the average of the past five years. The winter wheat area fell and adverse summer weather is reported to have affected yields.
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (11 November)
The 1999 cereal production is estimated to be slightly above last year�s crop at about 770 000 tonnes (including 380 000 tonnes of wheat). As of late October some food aid was still being distributed to the remaining Kosovar refugees and host families.
Indications are that the aggregate 1999-grain harvest is no better than last years-poor 29 million tonnes. This poor result is mainly due to hot and dry conditions in June and July, which exacerbated the effects of economic difficulties, shortages of inputs, heavy weed infestation and untimely frosts in May. Provided the 1999 maize crop reaches 1.5 million tonnes, as is likely, FAO forecasts the aggregate 1999 cereal and pulse harvest at 28.4 million tonnes, nearly 1 million tonnes less than last year's good harvest. Output of wheat is provisionally estimated by FAO at 16 million tonnes, about 1 million tonnes less than last year, and that of coarse grains at 11.7 million tonnes compared to 11.4 in the preceding year. Again this year, many regions placed controls to the free movement of grain and efforts by the government and regional authorities to recover debts owed by farmers have probably resulted in understatement in actual yields. The validity of this year's harvest estimates may also have been affected by the recent elections; persistent rumours of hryvnia devaluation after the elections and well-publicised moves by the government to regulate grain exports. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that 1999 will see the second poor harvest in succession. Indications are that the area sown to winter crops has reached 7.9 (of which 7.1 million on the former state farms). Growing conditions for winter grains have not been good but have improved in the last few weeks. Despite another poor harvest, the food supply situation is likely to remain satisfactory. Even at the reduced level, domestic wheat production far exceeds the aggregate requirements for human consumption. The country exported 5.8 million tonnes of grain, including 4.4 million tonnes of wheat in 1998/99. Official reports indicate that the country had already exported 1,9 million tonnes of cereals from this year's harvest by October, including 1.5 million tonnes of wheat. However, the availability of animal feed will remain highly constrained. Current indications are that it is more profitable to export feed grains than to sell on the domestic market and cereal exports are likely to continue in 1999/2000, but at a reduced level. FAO tentatively forecasts cereal exports at 3.8 million tonnes, including 2.3 million tonnes of wheat.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (4 November)
Official reports indicate that sharply higher spring grain yields have offset the reduced planted area, bringing aggregate cereal production in 1999 to 8.6 million tonnes compared to 8.7 million tonnes in 1998. The wheat harvest is put at only 2.2 million tonnes, some 27 percent less than last year. Lower average yields, some 15 percent down, exacerbated the reduction in the area sown during the autumn. The area sown to winter wheat fell to around 700�000 hectares mainly in response to economic difficulties, particularly rapid inflation and shortages of inputs, as well as persistent and untimely rains at planting and harvest. Official harvest estimates put the 1999 maize harvest at between 5.8 and 6 million tonnes. Spring sowing operations were considered a strategic priority. Official reports indicate that the spring crop target area - 2.5 million hectares, including 1.5 million hectares of coarse grains - was achieved, despite floods in July, and chronic shortages of farm funds and inputs, disruption of labour and damage to fields and other infrastructure. The area target for winter crops, to be harvested in the spring of 2000, is set at 1.1 million hectares. Included in this target are 850�000 hectares of wheat (actual in 1998/99 was closer to 700�000 ha) and 150�000 hectares of barley (1998/99 130�000 ha). Chronic shortages of fertilizer and agrochemicals will also depress yields, pointing to another poor wheat harvest next year. Substantial carry-forward stocks from 1998/99 are available. Even if, according to official estimates, the overall cereal supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory, there are a large number of economically and socially deprived people and internally displaced who will require targeted assistance to get through the winter, not only with food but also with shelter and heating. Some 825�000 socially and economically vulnerable people are assessed to need 74 300 tonnes of food aid over 6 months. In the Province of Kosovo, the output of all crops was severely disrupted by hostilities and large-scale population displacement. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the Province in August, forecast wheat production in the province in 1999 at about 113�000 tonnes, 65 percent lower than estimated output in 1997. This will meet only 30 percent of the domestic requirement. Output of maize, at 57�000 tonnes, is forecast to be only 20 percent of average. In addition, the normal spring/summer vegetable harvest was almost zero and there has been widespread looting and slaughter of livestock. These losses will have both nutritional and economic consequences in the coming year. Although the Republic of Serbia is a net exporter of cereals, the Province of Kosovo has a wheat import requirement in 1999/2000 marketing year of an estimated at 228�000 tonnes, of which 143�000 tonnes of emergency food aid deliveries/pledges are scheduled up to the end of 1999, leaving an uncovered import gap of about 85�000 tonnes.
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