The 1999 wheat harvest was mostly complete by the end of October, somewhat later than normal due to cool and rainy weather during the season. The later harvested crops are reported to have suffered some yield loss due to frost damage. The latest official forecast puts 1999 wheat output at 25.9 million tonnes, some 7 percent above last year but about 5 percent below the 10-year average. Aggregate coarse grain production is expected to decrease in 1999 to 25.8 million tonnes, 3 percent lower than last year but 6 percent higher than the 10-year average.
The November USDA crop report put the 1999 aggregate wheat (winter and spring) output at 62.8 million tonnes, about 10 percent down from 1998 and slightly below the average of the past five years. Planting of winter wheat for harvest next year was reported to be more than 90 percent complete by 7 November, which is about normal for the time of season. However, the overall condition of the crop is somewhat down on the previous year, mostly reflecting persisting dry conditions over the past few weeks, particularly in the southern Plains and the Pacific north west. On 7 November, 50 percent of the crop was assessed to be in �good to excellent� condition, down from 66 percent a year earlier, and the worst since 1992. With regard to the final area to be sown to wheat this autumn, there remains considerable uncertainty. With current new crop prices (futures prices) for wheat lower than those at the same time last year, there is little incentive for farmers to increase plantings and they may continue the shift towards alternative crops in search of better returns. The outlook for the 1999 coarse grains crop remains generally satisfactory. The USDA's November forecast put aggregate coarse grain production at 266 million tonnes, about 6 million tonnes below last year. Maize harvesting was virtually complete by early November and the latest estimate of output has been revised up slightly to 242 million tonnes. However, at this level, production would still be some 2 percent below last year. The barley, oats and rye crops are also forecast to be down somewhat compared to 1998 but a larger sorghum crop is in prospect. The estimate of paddy output in 1999 remains unchanged at a record 9.6 million tonnes.
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