WESTERN AFRICA

Generally above normal rains have been received since August. Harvest prospects are generally favourable. However, torrential rains caused flooding in many villages and thousands of people were displaced. Infestations of armyworms caused damage to emerging millet, sorghum and maize in Atakora and Borgou departments.

Food supply is satisfactory in the south. Prices remain lower than in 1998 mainly because Sahelian countries imported less this year and farmers needed to sell more to compensate for low cotton incomes.

BURKINA FASO (10 November)

Harvest prospects are favourable following generally above normal rains since July. Cumulative rainfall is generally normal to above normal countrywide except in the east and west. Soil moisture was generally adequate for satisfactory crop development. Pastures are abundant and of good quality. The pest situation remained mostly calm despite some attacks of blister beetles and other insects on millet, maize or rice in several areas.

A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 2�448�164 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), 9 percent below the 1998 record but 2 percent above the last five years average. Millet and sorghum production decreased by 9 percent and 8 percent respectively while maize and fonio production increased by 10 percent and 29 percent respectively.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and prices of local millet and sorghum are low. However, some populations may be vulnerable following flooding or successive reduced harvests.

CAPE VERDE (10 November)

Significant and widespread rains since August permitted satisfactory crop development. Soil moisture reserves are adequate to meet crop needs in most areas. Maize and beans are developing satisfactorily, particularly in Fogo and Brava islands where good harvests are expected. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October estimated 1999 cereal production at a record 25 745 tonnes which is about 5 times higher than in 1998 and 1997 and the last five-year average. Following this record crop, the overall food supply situation will improve in rural areas affected by several successive poor crops. Markets are well supplied and stocks and planned imports or food aid for the year 2000 are adequate to cover needs.

CHAD (10 November)

Harvest prospects are favourable, reflecting above-normal rains in August and September. Pastures are abundant and the pest situation remained mostly calm. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 1 153 294 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), which is 15 percent below the 1998 record but 9 percent above the five-year average. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. However, impassable roads due to heavy rains in recent months have affected market supply. Prices of cereals decreased in rural areas as producers sold their stocks before the harvest. WFP distributed 1�337 tonnes of food in deficit zones (Mayo-Kebbi, Tandjil�, Logone occidental and Logone oriental) and 640 tonnes as emergency relief to refugees in Adr� in the east.

COTE D'IVOIRE (10 November)

Abundant and regular rains benefited crop development. Harvest prospects are favourable so far. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Cereal import requirement for 1999 (January/December), is estimated at 640�000 tonnes, mostly wheat and rice.

THE GAMBIA (10 November)

Harvest prospects are good, reflecting satisfactory growing conditions. Unusually heavy rains have been registered, notably in August. They caused substantial flooding, notably in the west. Cumulative rainfall is above normal as it generally exceeds 1000 mm, reaching up to 1723.4 mm in Sapu in south CRD. Pastures are adequate. No significant pest infestation has been reported. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 137�144 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), 20 percent above the 1998 level and 29 percent above the five-year average.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied. Vulnerable populations affected by poor crops in 1998 received WFP food aid of 2�671 tonnes of cereals, 400 tonnes of pulses and 167 tonnes of oil.

GHANA (10 November)

Growing conditions are satisfactory so far. Rainfall was well distributed and above normal from the second dekad of June to mid-September, favouring crop development. Army worm infestations were reported in the Upper East region, threatening millet and sorghum. In September, severe floods devastated three areas in the Northern Regions as major rivers burst their banks. Some 332�000 people have been made homeless by the floods (300�000 in Northern Region, 15�000 in Upper West Region and 17�000 in Upper East Region). The floods have destroyed farmlands, crops and livestock and caused an outbreak of cholera in some villages. Emergency assistance is underway for some 300�000 victims.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in the flooded areas. About 20�000 Liberian refugees remain in the country, receiving food assistance.

GUINEA (10 November)

Harvest prospects are generally favourable, reflecting adequate growing conditions. However, heavy rains in July/August caused crop damage. Thousands of people were displaced in Conakry due to floods.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except for displaced persons and refugees. According to UNHCR, some 366�000 refugees remain in the country. Over 14�000 have recently been moved away from the Liberian border following fighting in mid-August.

GUINEA-BISSAU* (10 November)

Abundant and well-distributed rains in September and October favoured crop development. Cumulative rainfall is above normal and soil moisture reserves are sufficient for satisfactory crop development. Rice has been transplanted in swamps. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 11 to 15 October estimated the 1999 cereal production at 138�666 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), which is 6 percent above last year�s output but remains below the 1997/98 pre-crisis level and below average. Production of coarse grains increased, while that of rice decreased due to flooding and pest attacks.

The overall food supply situation has improved after the conflict. However, some populations are still facing food supply difficulties, notably in urban areas. Repatriation of refugees is underway and displaced persons and returnees are receiving food assistance.

LIBERIA* (10 November)

Growing conditions are favourable so far but crop prospects remain constrained by continuing civil disturbances in some areas. The 1999 rainy season has progressed satisfactorily with generally well distributed and above-normal rainfall. Output is expected to be similar to or above last year�s level, except in the north where fighting broke out in Lofa County in August. Agricultural production has been increasing in Bong, Bomi, Montserrado and Nimba counties, but not in Maryland, Sinoe and Grand Kru where poor roads have made access to farms difficult. With the exception of Lofa County, relative peace prevails elsewhere in the country and has exerted a positive influence on farming activities. The cultivated area should be substantially higher than in 1998, with rice production expected to be around 80 percent of pre-war level and 100 percent for cassava. Although a shortage of basic agricultural inputs was a limiting factor for farmers, it was minimized by substantial distribution of seeds and tools and improved technical assistance to resettling farm families. In Lofa County, most of the estimated 25�000 displaced people are farmers who will not be able to harvest their crops. Several thousands have been displaced from Voinjama and Kolahum in upper Lofa to Tarvey in lower Lofa.

The overall food situation has improved significantly in 1999 as rice production in 1998 was up to 70 percent of pre-civil war levels, compared to 25 percent in 1995, and cassava production reached almost 100 percent of pre-civil war levels compared to 50 percent in 1995. Food supply on the urban markets is relatively stable, and in general, prices are relatively lower than in 1998. Food supply in rural areas continued to be tight, particularly during the rainy season when roads are in poor condition. Resettlement and rehabilitation activities have allowed refugees and internally displaced persons to return to their homes. However, humanitarian programmes for Liberian returnees and Sierra Leonean refugees were disrupted by insecurity and looting in Lofa county, where the nutritional and health conditions of displaced people has deteriorated. About 90�000 refugees from Sierra Leone remain in Liberia. The country continues to rely heavily on food aid.

MALI (10 November)

Abundant and well-distributed rains since August benefited crop development and maintained adequate soil moisture in most productive zones. Pastures of good quality are available across the country. Surveys reported isolated Desert Locusts in a few areas in the Timetrine and the Adrar des Iforas. During September, mature adults and swarms were reported near Aguelhok, Tessalit and in the Tilemsi Valley, and numbers are expected to increase in these areas and could extend to parts of Tamesna. Once vegetation starts to dry out, some concentration and grouping may occur. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 25 to 29 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 2�951�633 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), exceeding the previous 1998 record by 17 percent. The estimated output is 28 percent above the five-year average. Production of rice increased by 13 percent and 41 percent respectively compared to 1998 and the average for the last five years, while coarse grains production increased by 17 percent and 23 percent respectively. Following two successive bumper crops, the overall food situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and cereal prices remain low. Although some areas may be in deficit, no food aid is required.

MAURITANIA (10 November)

Prospects for rainfed and recession crops are favourable, reflecting abundant precipitation which, however, caused flooding of irrigated rice fields. Abundant rains in mid and late August and September, combined with the high level reached by the Senegal river, caused substantial flooding in Brakna, Gorgol and Trarza, in the Senegal river basin. An inter-agency mission has been organized to assess the impact of these floods. Pastures are in good condition. Low numbers of Desert Locusts were reported in September in Brakna west of Moudjeria, in Tagant near Tidjikja, in the Akoukar region near A�oun El Atrous and north of Nema. Limited breeding started in early September and is expected to continue in Brakna and Aouker A�oun, and will almost certainly extend to Trarza, northern Assaba and the two Hodhs. Once vegetation starts to dry out, locusts are likely to concentrate and form small groups. Some may also start to appear further north in Inchiri and Adrar. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated aggregate cereal production in 1999/2000 at 250�900�tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent) which is 28�percent above the 195�444�tonnes harvested in 1998/99. The food situation is likely to improve in rural areas following this good harvest, except in the flooded areas. Food distributions are underway for the affected populations. WFP distributions also started in September for 161�692 people in Aftout and Affol� affected by poor harvests in 1998.

NIGER (10 November)

Growing conditions have been generally favourable during the rainy season. Cumulative rainfall is above normal. Good pastures are widespread. Infestations of grasshoppers and other insects are reported in Diffa, Tahoua, Maradi and Zinder departments. Low numbers of Desert Locust adults may be present and breeding in central Tamesna and on the western side of the A�r, but as vegetation starts to dry out, the numbers will decline. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 25 to 29 October estimated the 1999 cereal production at 2�832�600�tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent) which is about 5 percent below last year�s record of 2.98 million tonnes but is 23 percent above average. Production of rice increased by almost 25 percent while that of coarse grains decreased. The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and prices of cereals are low as cereal traders sold their stocks before the harvest.

NIGERIA (10 November)

Rains started later than normal over northern Nigeria, reaching these areas only in late May. However, despite the late planting, crop production is expected to be normal to above normal following widespread and abundant rainfall up to the end of October. Due to heavy rain, three hydroelectric dams released water in the Kaduna, Benue and Niger rivers in early October, causing flooding of villages located along the river banks and population displacements. The Nigerian Government estimates that about 300�000 people have been affected by the flooding, and that several thousand hectares have been flooded in 5 States (Sokoto, Adamwara, Borno, Kwara and mostly Niger State). Most displaced people have lost their homes and most of their crop fields, and have temporarily settled on higher ground. About 6�000 hectares of sugar cane plantation, expected to produce about 25�000 tonnes of sugar, have been flooded in central region. The south-eastern Bayelsa State and five districts in the Niger Delta (in the municipalities of Patani, Oshimili South, Ndokwa East, Burutu and Bomadi) have also been affected by floods. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in the flooded areas.

SENEGAL (10 November)

Overall crop prospects are favourable, reflecting widespread and generally above normal rainfall in August and September. The Senegal River overflowed its banks, causing flooding, notably in Saint-Louis region. Pastures are abundant countrywide, benefiting from regular rains since July. Infestations of grasshoppers and other insects are reported in several areas. Prospects for recession crops are good as large areas have been flooded in the Senegal River valley. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 25 to 29 October estimated 1999 rainfed cereal production at about 962�000�tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), which is 7 percent above the five-year average. With recession and off-season crops estimated at about 47�000 tonnes, the aggregate cereal production amounts to 1�009�100 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent). The overall food situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and the price of rice is stable. Prices of local cereals are low. However, in the flooded areas in Diourbel, Kaolack, Fatick regions and in the S�n�gal river valley (Dagana, Podor, Matam, Bakel), localized food supply difficulties are likely.

SIERRA LEONE* (10 November)

Growing conditions have generally been favourable since the beginning of the season, despite reduced rains in late July and in August. Security conditions have improved in many rural areas but might not affect the 1999 production substantially. Output is expected to remain close to last year�s level despite favourable climatic conditions so far. Insecurity in major parts of the country at the beginning of the season prevented the delivery of agricultural inputs and disrupted agricultural activities. Recent fighting in the northern towns of Makeni and Lunsar interrupted food deliveries. Following the peace agreement in early July, the security situation improved and allowed emergency and rehabilitation activities in the country. Food distribution is underway following the reopening of main roads from Freetown to Bo and Kenema, and from neighbouring Guinea to Kambia. However, the amount of food is insufficient to meet the needs of the large number of returnees and displaced persons, particularly in the north and the east. Current estimates put the number of displaced people at 700�000, whose nutritional status is reported to be precarious. A recent inter-agency food needs assessment mission to Kailahun area estimated the total population in the visited towns at about 15�000 inhabitants of whom some 3�000 may be Sierra Leonean refugees who fled Lofa county in Liberia due to renewed insecurity. Even with successful implementation of the peace agreement, the country will continue to rely heavily on food assistance for several years.

TOGO (10 November)

Harvest prospects are favourable reflecting widespread and above-normal rains during the growing season. Soil moisture reserves are adequate and so far the pest situation remains calm. Floods have been reported in Kara, Plateaux, Maritime and Savanes regions. The worst affected regions is Savanes where at least 1�000 hectares of arable land have been inundated, hundreds of homes and over 100 bridges destroyed, and 800 km of roads made impassable, isolating villages and affecting an estimated 42�000 people. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory.


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