In northern Africa, land preparation has started for planting of winter crops, but was delayed by below-normal rainfall in September/October. Aggregate 1999 wheat output is estimated at about 13 million tonnes, some 9 percent below last year. The coarse grains crop is estimated at some 11 millions tonnes, similar to last year. Weather conditions were mixed in Morocco and Algeria, where cereal output has been well below average due to poor rainfall, while conditions in Egypt and Tunisia were favourable and above-average cereal output is expected.
In western Africa, a bumper crop is anticipated in the Sahel for the second consecutive year, due to favourable weather conditions. Rains were timely, except in Senegal, where some replanting was necessary. Widespread rainfall, however, caused serious localized flooding in The Gambia, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad. 1999 cereal output in the nine CILSS countries is estimated by FAO/CILSS at a record 10.9 million tonnes, some 2 percent above 1998 and 16 percent above average. Record crops are anticipated in Cape Verde, The Gambia, Mali and Mauritania, whilst above-average output is anticipated in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Senegal. Output, however, remained below average in Guinea-Bissau following civil strife in 1998. In coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, harvest prospects are generally good in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea and Togo but are less favourable in Nigeria and Ghana, following serious floods. Liberia and Sierra Leone remain heavily dependent on international food aid despite some improvement in food production.
In central Africa, crop prospects are generally favourable in Central African Republic and Cameroon, but civil strife in both the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to hamper agricultural activities. In Kivu, main season planting is underway, but prospects are poor due to insecurity.
In eastern Africa, early prospects for secondary "Deyr" season are poor in Somalia, due to poor rains and population displacement. In Kenya, output is forecast to fall sharply due to drought and pest infestation. In Tanzania, poor rains affected planting of main season crops in most areas. In Uganda, recent rains favoured the 1999 second season crops. In Ethiopia, floods and drought earlier reduced main season crop yields. In Eritrea and Sudan, prospects for the 1999 main season cereals are favourable.
In southern Africa, wheat harvesting is well advanced. The outlook is unfavourable, due to another reduced harvest in South Africa, which accounts for 80 percent of sub-region's wheat production. Dry weather reduced planting and output is forecast at 3 percent below last year. Planting of 1999/2000 coarse grains is underway.
In Asia, recent cyclones, storms and floods devastated several parts. In India, a cyclone devastated large parts of Orissa state, causing extensive crop damage. Overall, however, well distributed rains revived prospects for main season rice after erratic rains earlier. In China seasonably dry weather in late October, favoured harvesting of summer crops and planting of winter wheat, but drought/high temperatures earlier affected maize. Production is forecast to be lower than in 1998. In Viet Nam, heavy rain and floods resulted in extensive damage in central coastal areas, though overall rice prospects for 1999/2000 remain favourable. Also in Cambodia, despite localised floods in late October, prospects for main wet season rice remain satisfactory. In Bangladesh, notwithstanding floods in north/central parts, monsoon rains this year have been generally favourable for development of main aman rice. In Pakistan, seasonably dry conditions favoured summer crops and preparations for rabi planting. In Indonesia, rainfall increased moisture supplies for main season rice transplanting. In Japan, storms and heavy rainfall in October, resulted in localised flooding and some crop damage to rice in the south. In DPR Korea, rainfall at important stages of maize development (May-July) was well below normal, seriously affecting yields. Agriculture in the country also remains heavily constrained by lack of essential inputs. In the Philippines, heavy rains in late October, affected maturing (main) rice somewhat. However, overall rice output this year is expected to be much higher than in recent years. In Sri Lanka, land preparation/planting of main (Maha) rice, to coincide with the north east monsoon rains, is underway. Above-normal rainfall in September/October supplemented soil moisture and was generally favourable for planting. In Afghanistan, prospects for the 2000 winter grains are uncertain due to insecurity in important crop areas. Poor rains are hampering planting of winter grains in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. In the Asia CIS countries, 1999 production is forecast to recover to 24 million tonnes from 17 million tonnes in 1998. The 1999 wheat crop is forecast at 6 million tonnes higher mainly due to higher yields in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Georgia. Production of coarse grains is forecast at 4 million tonnes compared to 3 million tonnes in 1998. Elsewhere, the outlook is less favourable, except in Georgia where favourable conditions offset area reduction and output could increase by 10 percent.
In Central America and the Caribbean, storms and floods in September/October affected harvesting of 1999/2000 first season cereal crops and planting of second season crops. Despite losses in maize, near-average output for the year is forecast in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua, while production is likely to be below average in Honduras. In Mexico, the worst affected country, average output is expected as no serious damage occurred in maize production areas. In Cuba, hurricane "Irene" damaged banana plantations and minor foodcrops, but food supplies remain satisfactory. In Antigua and Barbuda major damage to housing and infrastructure has been caused by Hurricane José, while the country, as well as other small island states, are presently being threatened by Hurricane "Lenny".
In South America, 1999 wheat harvesting has begun in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay while it will commence in Chile in December. Early forecast points to average output. Planting of 1999/2000 coarse grain crops is also underway in these countries. In Andean countries, in Bolivia, harvesting of 1999 second season (winter) wheat is complete while planting of 1999/2000 first season cereal crops has begun in parts. In Ecuador, harvesting of 1999 second season maize has begun and above-average output is forecast. In Peru, harvesting of 1999 wheat and maize is complete and an above-average output is forecast. In Colombia, despite heavy rains and flooding in main maize areas, near-average output is provisionally forecast. In Venezuela, heavy rains and flooding also affected crops and below-average maize output is expected.
In Europe, aggregate 1999 cereal production in the EC is forecast at almost 202 million tonnes, some 4 percent lower than last year but above average. The decline in output is largely due to a 5 percent increase in compulsory set-aside and adverse weather. Latest information also confirms lower 1999 cereal output in several eastern European countries due to reduced planting and/or adverse weather. Winter grain planting is underway throughout Europe under generally satisfactory conditions. In CIS countries west of the Ural Mountains, indications are that 1999 cereal and pulse output may be marginally above last year's drought-affected crop. FAO forecasts aggregate cereal and pulse output in Belarus, Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine at 92.5 million tonnes, some 2.5.million tonnes more than in 1998. Aggregate wheat output in these countries is forecast at 48.4 million tonnes, compared to last year's drought reduced crop of 48.8 million tonnes. Aggregate production of coarse grains is tentatively forecast at 41.5 million tonnes, some 2.7 million tonnes more than 1998. In the Russian Federation, FAO provisionally forecasts total grain output at 59 million tonnes, some 5 million tonnes above last year. In the Baltics, low grain prices depressed planting and output is forecast to fall to 3.7 million tonnes from 4.5 million tonnes in 1998. In the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, (Serbia and Montenegro), 1999 wheat output was 2.2 million tonnes, some 27 percent less than 1998. Despite disruption caused by war and shortages of fuel and spare parts, indications are that spring area increased and coarse grain production is officially put at 8.6 million tonnes. In Croatia, 1999 wheat output almost halved and area and yields of coarse grains also fell, due to economic problems and excessive rains. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, the current outlook is for both wheat and coarse grain production to remain stable at about 200 000 tonnes and 900 000 tonnes respectively.
In North America, winter wheat planting in the United States for harvest in 2000 is complete. Dry conditions favoured fieldwork but adversely affected crop condition in parts. Early indications indicate little change in area from last year's reduced level. Officially, 1999 wheat production is put at 62.8 million tonnes, about 10 percent below 1998 and coarse grains at 266 million tonnes, 2 percent below 1998. 1999 paddy output is estimated at a record 9.6 million tonnes. In Canada, the bulk of 1999 harvesting is complete, later than normal due to rain and cool temperatures. Wheat output is estimated to be above last year, while production of coarse grains has declined.
In Oceania, the outlook for 1999 winter wheat and coarse grains in Australia remains favourable following abundant and timely rainfall. Official forecast points to a well-above-average crop of 21.9 million tonnes, while production of coarse grains is expected to decline somewhat as a result of lower planting.