There is a considerable amount of knowledge available about the techniques to achieve various dimensions of sustainable forest management. Thus, although there is some uncertainty about the precise effects of forest management over the long-term, it is generally believed that enough is known to manage forests on a more sustainable basis. However, it is also estimated that a significant proportion of the world's forests is not managed in a way that could be described as sustainable. The questions facing forestry policymakers around the world therefore, are: why is this the case and what actions would encourage the wider implementation of sustainable forest management practices?
It is against this background, that this working paper has been prepared as part of an FAO input to the World Bank Forest Policy Implementation Review and Strategy. The paper discusses the future market conditions that may have an impact on the development of sustainable forest management and describes the implications of these for future action by governments, FAO, the World Bank and other international agencies to support its implementation.
The first part of the report describes broad global trends in supply and demand and then the analysis focuses on the likely future developments in markets by region and forest product. Part two of the report describes some of the implications of these trends for the management of forest resources then examines important issues in forest product processing, marketing and trade.
Some specific topics covered in the report include: the future availability of forest resources; future land-use changes (in terms of both expansion of agricultural land and reservation of natural forest areas); the development of forest plantations and other non-forest resources such as trees outside of forests; trends in technology; the impact of globalisation on forest products markets and forest management; the importance of issues such as forest certification; and the impact of sustainable forest management prescriptions on future potential wood and fibre supply.
A number of background papers have been prepared on some of the specific topics covered in this report. Papers on technological developments were produced by experts from the US Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory in Madison, Wisconsin, the Forest Research Institute of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur and FAO's Wood and Non-wood Products Utilization Branch. A separate forest plantations study has been produced by one of this reports authors and a study of future wood fuel supply and demand is currently being produced. These reports will be issued separately as part of the FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study working paper series.
The main forest products supply and demand projections used in this report were produced by the University of Wisconsin at Madison and future fibre availability was assessed using FAO's Global Fibre Supply Model. Draft versions of this report have also been reviewed by a number of external experts in this field, including: J Ball; A Baudin; J Bourke; D Boulter; D Brooks; and A Contreras.
FAO would like to express its gratitude to all the contributors to this paper and to thank everyone that has provided comments on earlier drafts of this work. FAO will continue to explore, with member countries, the ways in which sustainable forest management can be implemented with greater success and to assist with implementation through its technical and normative work programmes. In this respect, we would welcome comments on all aspects of this study from readers.
Lennart Ljungman
Director
Forestry Policy and Planning Division
AAC |
Annual allowable cut - the amount of timber which may be cut in a given period, usually determined by considerations of standing volume of growing stock, rate of growth and forest condition. |
APEC |
Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum |
ASEAN |
Association of Southeast Asian Nations |
APFSOS |
Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study (FAO, 1998) |
CARICOM |
Caribbean Community |
CIFOR |
Center for International Forestry Research |
ETTS V |
The Fifth European Timber Trends Study (UN, 1996a) |
EQ (m3 EQ) |
Cubic metres of roundwood equivalent - i.e. the volume of roundwood required to produce a specific volume or weight of forest products |
EU |
European Union |
Exp |
Exports |
FAO |
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations |
FRA (FRA 90) |
Forest Resource Assessment (the 1990 Forest Resource Assessment) - a periodic assessment of the area and condition of the world's forests carried-out by FAO (see, for example: FAO, 1995). |
FSC |
Forest Stewardship Council |
GDP |
Gross Domestic Product |
GFPM |
Global Forest Products Model (see: Tomberlin et al, 1999) |
GFPOS |
Global Forest Products Outlook Study (see: Whiteman, in prep) |
GFSM |
Global Fibre Supply Model (see: FAO, 1999a) |
HRD |
Human resources development |
IRR |
Internal rate of return - the percentage rate of return given by an investment during its life |
IRW |
Industrial roundwood (roundwood used for purposes other than as a source of energy) |
MERCOSUR |
Mercado Comun del Sur or "Common Market of the South" |
mt or MT |
Metric tonnes |
NAFTA |
North American Free Trade Agreement |
NATTS |
North American Timber Trends Study (UN, 1996b) |
NGOs |
Non-governmental organisations |
OECD |
Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development |
OSB |
Oriented strandboard |
Prod |
Production |
SFM |
Sustainable forest management |
SME |
Small and medium-sized enterprises |
UN |
United Nations |
UNECE |
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe |
WCMC |
World Conservation Monitoring Centre |
WTO |
World Trade Organisation |
WTP |
Willingness to pay |
WWF |
World Wildlife Fund |
