Current and projected pulp production and consumption is shown in Table 15. OECD countries currently have a three-quarters share of world pulp consumption and production and are again dominated by United States of America and Canada. Non-OECD Asia and Oceania currently has a 17% share of global pulp production and a 19% share of global pulp consumption. The non-OECD regions are relatively insignificant. Broadly speaking, the non-OECD region as a whole is a very small net exporter to OECD countries.
Of the non-OECD countries, China is the only globally significant pulp producer and consumer. The Russian Federation, Brazil and South Africa are significant within their regions, but fairly small producers at a global scale. It should also be noted that non-wood fibre pulp accounts for a major share of the Chinese market (as it does in India).
Very little growth in production and consumption is expected over the period to 2010. Most growth is likely to occur in non-OECD countries, particularly Asia and Oceania but also, to some extent, South and Central America. Thus, the OECD share of future world production and consumption is expected to fall slightly to 70% and 72% respectively.
The forecast for pulp production and consumption growth is relatively low considering that, of all the product categories, paper consumption is expected to grow the fastest in the future. This is because the GFPM analysis presented here has assumed that the use of recovered fibre will increase in the total fibre furnish in line with historical trends.
The collection and utilisation of recovered fibre is largely policy driven, so the extent to which this material is used in the future is largely in the hands of government policymakers (not necessarily forestry policymakers, though). At the rates of recovery assumed in this analysis, there is still scope to increase recovery further, but much will depend upon the costs of collecting more material and the incentives or regulations requiring producers and consumers to do so.
Table 15: Current and projected pulp production and consumption by region and country
Region |
1996 |
2010 (projection) | ||||||
Production |
Consumption |
Production |
Consumption | |||||
(1,000 MT) |
% |
(1,000 MT) |
% |
(1,000 MT) |
% |
(1,000 MT) |
% | |
OECD - Europe |
33,958 |
19% |
39,859 |
22% |
43,425 |
21% |
44,035 |
21% |
OECD - Asia and Oceania |
14,367 |
8% |
19,604 |
11% |
17,714 |
9% |
22,601 |
11% |
OECD - Americas1 |
83,386 |
47% |
73,577 |
41% |
82,098 |
39% |
80,049 |
39% |
OECD total |
131,711 |
74% |
133,039 |
75% |
143,236 |
69% |
146,686 |
71% |
Russian Federation |
3,725 |
2% |
2,758 |
2% |
2,936 |
1% |
2,734 |
1% |
Romania |
247 |
<1% |
258 |
<1% |
273 |
<1% |
267 |
<1% |
Slovakia |
235 |
<1% |
203 |
<1% |
166 |
<1% |
168 |
<1% |
Bulgaria |
107 |
<1% |
77 |
<1% |
157 |
<1% |
91 |
<1% |
Slovenia |
101 |
<1% |
192 |
<1% |
95 |
<1% |
202 |
<1% |
Others |
214 |
<1% |
217 |
<1% |
1,001 |
<1% |
923 |
<1% |
Non-OECD Europe total |
4,629 |
3% |
3,703 |
2% |
4,628 |
2% |
4,385 |
2% |
China |
24,751 |
14% |
26,809 |
15% |
35,330 |
17% |
36,467 |
18% |
Indonesia |
2,635 |
1% |
2,143 |
1% |
2,753 |
1% |
2,810 |
1% |
India |
1,870 |
1% |
2,132 |
1% |
2,375 |
1% |
2,392 |
1% |
Thailand |
503 |
<1% |
718 |
<1% |
436 |
<1% |
1,007 |
<1% |
Turkey |
354 |
<1% |
500 |
<1% |
203 |
<1% |
621 |
<1% |
Others |
719 |
<1% |
1,196 |
1% |
3,327 |
2% |
3,853 |
2% |
Non-OECD Asia & Oceania total |
30,832 |
17% |
33,498 |
19% |
44,424 |
21% |
47,150 |
23% |
Brazil |
6,225 |
3% |
4,258 |
2% |
7,144 |
3% |
4,363 |
2% |
Chile |
2,123 |
1% |
479 |
<1% |
4,056 |
2% |
514 |
<1% |
Argentina |
822 |
<1% |
768 |
<1% |
1,005 |
<1% |
535 |
<1% |
Colombia |
307 |
<1% |
380 |
<1% |
476 |
<1% |
642 |
<1% |
Venezuela |
165 |
<1% |
358 |
<1% |
124 |
<1% |
195 |
<1% |
Others |
139 |
<1% |
227 |
<1% |
498 |
<1% |
718 |
<1% |
Non-OECD Americas |
9,781 |
5% |
6,470 |
4% |
13,303 |
6% |
6,966 |
3% |
South Africa |
1,547 |
1% |
1,177 |
1% |
1,888 |
1% |
1,693 |
1% |
Swaziland2 |
200 |
<1% |
.. |
.. |
99 |
<1% |
.. |
.. |
Morocco |
104 |
<1% |
60 |
<1% |
9 |
<1% |
68 |
<1% |
Kenya |
66 |
<1% |
71 |
<1% |
143 |
<1% |
143 |
<1% |
Egypt |
60 |
<1% |
124 |
<1% |
77 |
<1% |
105 |
<1% |
Others |
154 |
<1% |
276 |
<1% |
204 |
<1% |
344 |
<1% |
Africa total |
2,131 |
1% |
1,708 |
1% |
2,419 |
1% |
2,353 |
1% |
Non-OECD total |
47,373 |
26% |
45,379 |
25% |
64,774 |
31% |
60,854 |
29% |
World total |
179,083 |
178,418 |
208,009 |
207,540 | ||||
Notes: 1. It is not really possible to compare actual consumption and production in 1996 with the projection for 2010, because the projection is a projection of the trend and consumption and production in 1996 was significantly above this trend. Consequently, the growth trend in consumption and production is higher than the appearance given here.
2. Net exports of sawnwood from Swaziland were greater than officially recorded production in 1996, so consumption can not be accurately estimated..
Current and projected paper and paperboard production and consumption is shown in Table 16. As with the market for pulp, OECD countries have a dominant share of the global market for paper, accounting for nearly 80% of global production and 75% of global consumption. However, OECD countries as a whole are net exporters to non-OECD countries.
Again, China is the only non-OECD country with a significant paper market and non-OECD Asia and Oceania holds the largest global share of paper production (15%) and consumption (18%) of all the non-OECD regions.
As with other product categories, the share of the global market held by OECD countries is expected to decline by 2010. Production share will fall back 3% to 76% as less developed countries expand their production capacity more rapidly than OECD countries. Consumption share will fall back only slightly, by 1% to 74%.
Paper consumption growth in most non-OECD countries is expected to exceed growth in the OECD countries by a wide margin. However, due to the currently extremely low levels of consumption in many of these countries, this is not expected to change the picture of global supply and demand by very much in the near future.
In terms of future paper (and pulp) production, the main uncertainty about the forecast presented here concerns the large area of pulpwood plantations which have been established in many tropical countries over the last decade or so. The potential volume of fibre which can be produced from these plantations is huge and this is shown in the projections of the GFSM. However, although these potential supply increases are incorporated in the GFPM, the latter is somewhat constrained to follow trends starting from existing patterns of production capacity. If large volumes of cheap available fibre in Asia and South America were to suddenly emerge over the next 10 years or so, this could change production costs and result in a shift in manufacturing capacity into these regions.
The extent to which this might occur will depend on several factors including: the ease with which the complex processing technology required for pulp and paper manufacturing can be introduced into many of these countries; the comparative cost of other factors of production; and the competition for this resource from the reconstituted panels sector (see above). If conditions are favourable, production could shift on a scale which is noticeable at the global level. If not, some of these countries could be left with a large resource without a market.
Table 16: Current and projected paper production and consumption by region and country
Region |
1996 |
2010 (projection) | ||||||
Production |
Consumption |
Production |
Consumption | |||||
(1,000 MT) |
% |
(1,000 MT) |
% |
(1,000 MT) |
% |
(1,000 MT) |
% | |
OECD - Europe |
75,544 |
27% |
68,652 |
25% |
103,608 |
26% |
95,186 |
24% |
OECD - Asia and Oceania |
41,581 |
15% |
42,645 |
15% |
61,676 |
16% |
61,876 |
16% |
OECD - Americas |
106,634 |
37% |
97,911 |
35% |
133,247 |
34% |
130,881 |
33% |
OECD total |
223,759 |
79% |
209,208 |
75% |
298,531 |
76% |
287,943 |
74% |
Russian Federation |
3,212 |
1% |
1,788 |
1% |
4,252 |
1% |
3,563 |
1% |
Slovenia |
460 |
<1% |
368 |
<1% |
1,013 |
<1% |
910 |
<1% |
Hungary |
363 |
<1% |
522 |
<1% |
457 |
<1% |
753 |
<1% |
Romania |
332 |
<1% |
320 |
<1% |
433 |
<1% |
402 |
<1% |
Slovakia |
327 |
<1% |
190 |
<1% |
321 |
<1% |
377 |
<1% |
Others |
698 |
<1% |
1,049 |
<1% |
1,788 |
<1% |
2,031 |
1% |
Non-OECD Europe total |
5,392 |
2% |
4,238 |
2% |
8,263 |
2% |
8,036 |
2% |
China |
30,253 |
11% |
32,917 |
12% |
50,980 |
13% |
48,098 |
12% |
Indonesia |
4,386 |
2% |
3,372 |
1% |
5,014 |
1% |
4,278 |
1% |
India |
3,025 |
1% |
3,369 |
1% |
4,338 |
1% |
4,340 |
1% |
Thailand |
2,241 |
1% |
2,506 |
1% |
1,863 |
<1% |
3,081 |
1% |
Turkey |
1,235 |
<1% |
1,772 |
1% |
1,128 |
<1% |
1,366 |
<1% |
Others |
1,856 |
1% |
6,414 |
2% |
6,403 |
2% |
14,610 |
4% |
Non-OECD Asia & Oceania total |
42,996 |
15% |
50,350 |
18% |
69,728 |
18% |
75,772 |
19% |
Brazil |
5,885 |
2% |
5,574 |
2% |
7,714 |
2% |
6,376 |
2% |
Argentina |
1,108 |
<1% |
1,630 |
1% |
947 |
<1% |
2,006 |
1% |
Venezuela |
735 |
<1% |
799 |
<1% |
1,047 |
<1% |
801 |
<1% |
Colombia |
676 |
<1% |
961 |
<1% |
1,194 |
<1% |
1,236 |
<1% |
Chile |
597 |
<1% |
606 |
<1% |
910 |
<1% |
873 |
<1% |
Others |
540 |
<1% |
1,968 |
1% |
2,005 |
1% |
2,690 |
1% |
Non-OECD Americas |
9,541 |
3% |
11,538 |
4% |
13,817 |
4% |
13,982 |
4% |
South Africa |
1,871 |
1% |
1,708 |
1% |
2,439 |
1% |
2,616 |
1% |
Egypt |
221 |
<1% |
483 |
<1% |
232 |
<1% |
824 |
<1% |
Kenya |
129 |
<1% |
149 |
<1% |
268 |
<1% |
276 |
<1% |
Morocco |
106 |
<1% |
239 |
<1% |
189 |
<1% |
356 |
<1% |
Tunisia |
90 |
<1% |
154 |
<1% |
66 |
<1% |
219 |
<1% |
Others |
278 |
<1% |
671 |
<1% |
420 |
<1% |
926 |
<1% |
Africa total |
2,695 |
1% |
3,405 |
1% |
3,614 |
1% |
5,217 |
1% |
Non-OECD total |
60,624 |
21% |
69,531 |
25% |
95,421 |
24% |
103,007 |
26% |
World total |
284,383 |
278,740 |
393,952 |
390,950 | ||||
The last section of this report showed the broad inter-regional trade flows of wood and wood products and previous parts of this section have noted some of the world's major wood and wood product importers and exporters. Before concluding, this section will present a little more detail about some of the main trade flows of wood and wood products currently taking place.
Unfortunately, the GFPM in its current formulation, does not produce projections for country-to-country or region-to-region trade flows, but only produces projections for exports and imports (to the rest of the world) for each country. The model is also based on economic rationality and fails to capture some of the significant impacts of trading policies on trade flows. However, an attempt will be made to describe some of the changes in trade flows which may occur over the period to 2010, based on a careful interpretation of the model's results and a general appraisal of current trends in wood and wood products trade.
In terms of international wood and wood products trade, a handful of major exporting and importing countries appear at the top of the trade tables for nearly all products. To a large extent, major producers are also major exporters and major consumers are also major importers. The only exceptions to this rule are United States of America, Japan and China which are both major producers and importers of some wood products.
Of the OECD countries, major exporter countries include: United States of America (industrial roundwood and all products); Canada, Finland and Sweden (most products); and Australia and New Zealand (industrial roundwood). Of the non-OECD countries, major exporters are: Russian Federation; Chile and Malaysia (industrial roundwood and some products); Indonesia and Brazil (some products).
Major importers in the OECD include: Canada and Finland (industrial roundwood); Japan and Republic of Korea (industrial roundwood and most products); and United States of America, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and France (some products). The only major non-OECD importer is China. The main trade flows by product are set-out below.
Industrial roundwood. The largest trade flow of industrial roundwood occurs between countries on the Pacific Rim. Six countries (United States of America, Russian Federation, Chile, Australia, Malaysia and New Zealand) export industrial roundwood to Japan, China and Republic of Korea. Together, these activities accounted for around 50 million m3 of industrial roundwood trade in 1995 or 43% of the global total of 113 million m3. The only other major industrial roundwood trade flow is from United States of America to Canada (4.5 million m3).
Industrial roundwood (tropical). Despite the attention given to tropical roundwood trade, trade flows of tropical logs are actually very small (14% of total industrial roundwood trade). The only major exporter is Malaysia which, joined by Papua New Guinea and Solomon Isles, exports to Japan, Republic of Korea and China. African exports are also fairly low. The two largest exporters (Gabon and Cameroon) export to a range of European and Asian Countries.
Sawnwood. Total trade in sawnwood in 1995 was 107 million m3. Exports from Canada to United States of America accounted for 40 million m3 of this. Exports from Canada and United States of America to Japan and from Sweden and Finland to the rest of Europe accounted for much of the rest of world trade. The Russian Federation and Malaysia are the only significant non-OECD sawnwood exporters and exported to a broad range of countries.
Wood-based panels. Total trade in wood-based panels amounted to 41 million m3 in 1995. Two trade flows are significant: Malaysia and Indonesia to China, Japan and Republic of Korea (8.7 million m3 , mostly plywood); and Canada to United States of America (4.6 million m3, mostly particleboard).
Pulp. Pulp trade is, perhaps, the most interesting of all because major countries involved in the total trade of 33 million MT in 1995 can be found on four continents. The trading patterns are also quite complex. The largest individual trade flow is from Canada to United States of America (4.5 million MT). Significant trade flows also occur between these two countries and Europe and Sweden and Finland and the rest of Europe. Canada and United States of America are joined by Brazil and Chile as major exporters to Japan, China and Republic of Korea. However, Brazil and Chile are also significant exporters to United States of America. Outside Asia, this is the only major trade flow from non-OECD countries to an OECD country.
Paper. The main trade flows in paper products are similar to the trade flows in sawnwood. Canada exported 11 million MT to United States of America in 1995 (out of total global trade of 69 million MT). The other main trade flows were from Canada, United States of America, Finland and Sweden to the rest of Europe. Interestingly, Asia is not a major trader in paper products. Only China is an importer of minor significance. Japan chooses to manufacture most of its own needs from recycled fibre and imports of industrial roundwood (much of which is imported in the form of chips).
