It is difficult to foresee at this range (1997) how GTOS will develop in the next century even though that century is less than three years away. Known global changes will continue and new issues are certain to come to the fore. Political and commercial developments throughout the world are changing rapidly. In some areas living standards are improving and in other parts the reverse is true. Telecommunications systems, home and office computing facilities, and personal electronic information and leisure capabilities are making such rapid advances that by 2010 it is likely that major accessories and users of GTOS type data may well be individuals from the general public. GTOS will have to respond positively to these changing conditions and changing users. Also scientists will have developed better, more realistic models with greatly improved predictive capabilities.
These models will need improved precision and accuracy in variable measurements which will have to be reflected in GTOS procedures. Observations on new variables will be called for as scientific understanding of environmental processes increases. Better links between science and development will result in more sensitive indicators, and improved indices and other relationships for determining social and ecological responses to global change. Socio-economic data gathering techniques will improve at all levels allowing more meaningful application of global change data to national development. GTOS programmes will have to take these new developments and approaches into account. The actions given below are just some of the more likely avenues along which GTOS may develop.
1. Global environment inter-connections (Category A)
In the first decade of the next century there will be increasing scientific perception that the planet must be viewed as a functional entity in which what happens in one part can influence what happens in all other parts; everything is interconnected to some degree. The recent realization of the global consequences of the El Niño phenomenon is an example of these inter-connections that has just achieved worldwide prominence. The global effects resulting from the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo is another example. It will, therefore, become increasingly important to observe the state of the planet as a whole.
2. GTOS and the global state of the environment (Category A)
To observe the global state of the environment efficiently in a meaningful but cost-effective way it will be necessary first to identify and define a carefully selected set of core variables to be monitored worldwide. This is more difficult than it may seem because few environmental issues are actually global in nature. Most occur at local or regional level, often with large differences in the natural and socio-economic factors affecting them. They are considered global when they occur throughout the world with such frequency that they seem global by distribution. Nevertheless, many scientists consider that it is possible to identify and define a key set of core variables that will indicate the state of the global environment and its perturbations and potential changes. Once identified, data on each of these key variables will have to be gathered routinely for decades to come. Related tasks for GTOS in the 21st century will include:
Core variables (Category A)
GTOS will play an active part in identifying and defining a limited set of key core variables that can be used to observe the state and trends in the global environment. GTOS will be the lead observing system in identifying the terrestrial variables of this key set. Each of these core variables will be one that is crucial to important environmental functions and processes. Some of these variables will also be measured from space using Earth observation satellite systems. A change in the state of a given core variable will mean that there is a change occurring in the functions or processes in which this variable is involved.
GTOS Global Warning Network
(Category A)
Watchdog observations: GTOS will have a set of internationally designated core watchdog observing stations carefully placed around the world, perhaps 400 in number. These will routinely measure the same equally carefully chosen, internationally agreed, set of core variables using harmonized measurement techniques and the same quality assurance and quality control procedures. GTOS should establish a GTOS Global Warning Network which objective will be to keep the global terrestrial biosphere under constant observation. Through it GTOS will draw attention to any significant perturbations in the state of any of the core variables being observed. The causes and likely consequences of these perturbations can then be examined. This GTOS network will thus function as a global security alarm system that keeps the globe under constant observation but when an intruder appears (i.e. there is a significant change in the state of one or more of the observed variables) it will sound an alarm and call for an investigation. Such a system will allow the unexpected to be noticed and acted upon.
Hopefully, the GTOS Global Warning Network will be linked to similar networks in GCOS and GOOS, or there will be a single integrated Global Observing System Global. Such a global watchdog observing system will be of fundamental benefit to all nations, and to national planners and scientists alike. It will coordinate with other existing sectoral, humanitarian, food security, early warning systems.
(Category A; as required)
1. GTOS special observations
At times it will be necessary to obtain data and information on an environmental factor or effect which is not included in the normal observing system networks. This may entail setting up one or more special purpose observing networks. These may be global in scope or they may be local, or regional, depending on the factors involved and their distribution. Related tasks for GTOS in the 21st century will include:
Special variables
Through data obtained from its Global Warning Network, its normal observing networks, and its participation in assessment activities, GTOS will assist in identifying environmental variables not normally observed but about which information is now required. Where necessary GTOS will design and ensure the operation of an appropriate GTOS Special Purpose Observing Network.
Special Purpose Networks
Special observations: These are made through special, probably limited-life, networks created to measure one or more variables not normally observed and which have been identified as being of concern or interest either on theoretical grounds, or because they have been found to be involved in an unexpected perturbation observed by the GTOS Global Warning Network or a similar system. Thus a GTOS Special Purpose Network would be concerned with the origin, transport, deposition and targets of a particular specified element, chemical, substance, or group of substances. These networks may be constructed as a network of existing networks in the normal GTOS manner, or they may be specially created for the purpose, if funding is available.
1. Background
The environment has become part of every aspect of everyday life and the demands for environmental information are now far beyond the status and trend data traditionally supplied through global environmental monitoring networks. Information pertaining to the environment is now increasingly required to support and guide socio-economic and environmental policy processes, financial resource allocation, and action planning at national, regional, and global levels. This in turn means that global monitoring and reporting activities must provide many different types of information derived from many different sources and pertaining to many sectors of society. Sustainable development activities will probably grow into the largest programme area of GTOS. Related tasks for GTOS in the 21st century are given below.
2. GTOS Sustainable Development Unit (Category A)
GTOS should develop (but not fund) an international mechanism for providing advice and guidance to individual governments on adapting or creating cost-effective national observing systems tailored to particular governments that will enable a government to obtain the data and information that it needs for managing its renewable natural resources, including agriculture, pastoral, and other managed ecosystems, in ways that are sustainable. This mechanism will also provide, where necessary, advice on how best to finance all, or parts, of the national observing system. The mechanism will grow naturally out of the earlier work of GTOS but it will undoubtedly require the creation of a small unit within the GTOS Secretariat specifically for this purpose. Additional funds to support the unit will have to be sought.
3. National statistical data
(Category B)
Many nations, including developing countries, routinely gather national statistics, including environmentally related data, for national economic planning. Many local organizations also gather environmentally related data. These data often form the basis of national state of the environment reports which regularly summarize the status of current national environmental knowledge. These data are increasingly becoming available to non-national users. In many cases they are high quality, completely reliable, and are accompanied with very good metadata. In other instances, however, this is not true and the data can only be used with caution. Nevertheless, national statistics do present a potentially valuable source of terrestrial data that could be used by GTOS provided national harmonization, quality assurance and quality control procedures used in their gathering are to internationally acceptable standards, and reasonable metadata are available.
GTOS should develop an association with national statistical offices with a view to not only obtaining national data but also assisting countries to improve the quality and reliability of the environmental and renewable natural resources statistics they collect. Additional data could be made available to countries through GTOS. This association could be developed through the proposed GTOS Sustainable Development Unit. GTOS association with national statistical programmes will help GTOS to be seen to be more relevant to the development needs of countries.
4. Satellite data (Category B)
Data obtained from sensors in space will become more reliable, better in quality, more readily available, and cheaper. GTOS systems will develop improved ways to verify and use space data in their assessment and analytical models. This applies particularly to the use of space data for global change studies of ecosystem changes (extent, species composition, and quality) including biological diversity aspects. An important future function for GTOS will be to help guide countries, particularly developing countries, into better more efficient use of space data for sustainable development purposes. GTOS should catalyze co-operative studies between countries and the space agencies.
5. International sustainable development activities (Priorities B and C)
A number of international sustainable development initiatives will be undertaken in future years. These will range from improving the definition of sustainable development to long-term case-studies to demonstrate the feasibility, applicability and practical benefits of sustainable development concepts. Some will be within the framework of United Nations activities, while others will be national or regionally sponsored. GTOS must ensure that it is actively involved from the beginning in all the major international sustainable development programmes, and is fully aware of all other sustainable development actions. GTOS staff must take part in important sustainable development programme meetings both to learn more about national sustainable development needs, and to inform about GTOS. An association of this sort will improve the relevance of the sustainable development aspects of the GTOS programme, and will further enhance the reputation of GTOS among developing countries.
(Priorities A & B)
Great strides have been made in recent years in the development of environmental and ecological function models that approximate closely to the real world. This process will continue in the future. The scientific community will, therefore, be constantly refining and clarifying its data needs and better defining the accuracy and precision with which measurements should be made. New variables will be emphasized as research reveals their importance. There will then be calls for more data on these variables in order to answer specific scientific questions. GTOS must, therefore, continue to work closely with the scientific community and with the major international scientific programmes. This close association will help to make the GTOS programmes more meaningful to the world as increased scientific knowledge is translated into practical applications so improving human living standards and social well being.
(Category A)
There has been a marked increase in environmental awareness in the last decade. People all over the world have begun to realize that they really can be affected by a changing environment. This has resulted in worldwide increased demand for soundly based, scientifically reliable, easily understood information about the environment, how it works, why it is thought to be changing, what these changes will mean to people, and what can be done about it if these changes are not beneficial. This demand peaks at times of oil spills, nuclear releases, industrial accidents, volcanic eruptions, droughts, floods and other environment related incidents.
GTOS must develop a series of clearly written, authoritative, well illustrated but brief pamphlets on environmental problems as they effect terrestrial systems and people. Additional funds should be sought to translate them into major languages appropriate to different regions (eg Arabic, Chinese, French, Spanish, Russian, etc.). GTOS must be prepared to issue frequent authoritative update bulletins on individual environmental incidents and situations as they arise. This should include television interviews, press conferences, radio statements, and web site material, in addition to the more traditional press releases. Properly done this will considerably benefit the long-term reputation and recognition of GTOS and its work.
(Category A)
The question of involving governments in the work of GTOS and in its support has been touched upon in several parts of this Implementation Plan. Ultimately, the future of GTOS, as with all the Global Observing Systems, rests with governments. Without their active technical and financial participation there can be no effective GTOS. Some form of Intergovernmental Advisory Mechanism for GTOS would, therefore, be an advantage since it would not only overcome potential political difficulties but would ensure the financial future of GTOS.
Establishing an Intergovernmental Advisory Committee or Panel on GTOS, similarly structured, for example, to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is one possibility that should be explored. The preparatory work for setting up such a mechanism would include securing funds for holding the first meeting, and for increasing the size of the GTOS Secretariat to cope with the extra work load that supporting this panel would entail. This approach, if carefully formulated, would ensure that governments have a real say in how GTOS is developed and run even though GTOS remains a United Nations activity.
FIGURE 5: Example of a thematic project
