ANNEX 1. THE TECHNICAL PRESENTATIONS

a) The FOSA Process - Information note

What is the Forestry Outlook Study for Africa ?

The Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (acronym - FOSA) is an initiative led by FAO and carried out in partnership with all African nations, the African Development Bank, the European Commission, regional and sub-regional inter-governmental organisations, the World Bank and others. The Forestry Outlook Study for Africa was endorsed by African countries at the 11th Session of the Africa Forestry and Wildlife Commission (AFWC), held in Dakar, Senegal in April 1998. Activities under FOSA commenced in October 1998, and will run through July 2002.

FOSA is a process for analysing the future potential of the forestry sector to contribute to the well being of African citizens through its economic, social and environmental functions. FOSA will analyse the status, trends and driving forces shaping African forestry; provide a region-wide vision of the sector to the year 2020; and identify policies, programme and investment options that will help move the sector in desirable directions.

FOSA is the most recent study in FAO's long-standing series of regional forestry outlook studies. FAO will draw upon past experience, in particular the recently completed Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study which took a more comprehensive approach to the analysis of the forest sector than had been done by previous regional outlook studies. FOSA, however, has three new features: it will rely heavily on collaboration with major lending institutions active in the region; it will incorporate efforts to improve the information base upon which the analyses depend; and, it will have a strong sub-regional emphasis.

What is the purpose of FOSA ?

The primary objective of FOSA is to serve the forestry sector development needs of African countries. FOSA will help countries incorporate a longer-term vision into their planning horizons, put national information into a regional context, place forestry into a larger economic and social context, and will also provide better investment opportunities for the forestry sector. Besides providing a framework for the countries of the region to shape their own national programmes, FOSA will form a basis for the review of forestry portfolios of lending institutions, investors, development partners and the private sector.

Why have a sub-regional dimension ?

The sub-regional approach adopted by FOSA is important because Africa is a continent of contrasts. A few countries have some of the world's richest forests; others are dry, desertified and severely lacking in forest cover; while most have only modest natural forest endowments which permit mainly local subsistence use. Some countries have very active plantation programmes, while others do not. Similar contrasts apply to wildlife resources. There is also a wide diversity of institutional arrangements and policy approaches to forestry in the region. The most realistic way to capture Africa's diversity is to carry out sub-regional analyses. The study will cover all continental and island African countries, divided into five groupings: North, West, Central, East and Southern Africa¹.

Who are the partners in FOSA ?

The active participation of Africa's national experts and institutions is key to the success of FOSA. The study will rely to the maximum extent possible on national and regional expertise. All the countries of the region have been invited to play their part in setting the agenda for FOSA, participate in its implementation, supply sector information, and share its analysis and results. FOSA focal points identified by each African country will ensure that not only governments, but also the private sector and civil society become involved.

FAO seeks wide partnership in the implementation of FOSA with international, regional and sub-regional organisations. Already, the African Development Bank, the European Community, and the World Bank are active partners. Linkages will also be made with the African Timber Organisation, the Economic Commission for Africa, UN Environment Programme and other regional and international organisations with mandates related to the forestry sector. Close association is sought with broad-mandate sub-regional organisations (e.g., ECOWAS, CILSS and SADC²⁾. These will help provide a framework and focus for participating countries. NGO and private sector partners will also be sought.

What will be FOSA's main products ?

FOSA will produce six major final reports: one regional overview document and five sub-regional outlook reports. The sub-regional reports will provide a view of the forestry sector today, analyse the effect of factors driving change in the sector, indicate policy and programme options for affecting the direction of forestry, provide a view of the sector in the year 2020, and analyse investment opportunities.

Supporting documents produced by FOSA will include baseline papers, a country outlook paper for each African nation, a number of thematic papers of key issues in forestry (providing regional analyses, but with information presented at sub-regional level where appropriate), and a major study on the institutional framework for forestry in Africa.

What is the FOSA process ?

FOSA is an integrated process synthesizing and consolidating inputs from different sources. Baseline studies on (a) socio-economic features of Africa and (b) forest cover and land use of Africa form the starting point, giving an overview of the situation and providing an essential statistical basis for use at the national, sub-regional and regional levels. The most critical input for FOSA will come from country level outlook papers. These, prepared through consultation at the national level involving all the key sectors and stakeholders, will provide the future direction of change and indicate how forestry sector would look like in the year 2020. Further, a number of thematic papers on selected topics, including one on forestry institutions in Africa undertaken by the World Bank, will provide sub-regional and regional overviews of key issues. The country outlook papers and the thematic papers will be synthesized to prepare the sub-regional outlook reports, which in turn will form the basis for preparing the regional outlook report.

What will FOSA do and when ?

FOSA's specific activities are scheduled as follows:

Oct 1998-May 2000:	Improvement of the availability of national level forestry data
Sept 1999 - Mar. 2000:	Preparation of two baseline papers: social and economic features in Africa; and forestry in land use in Africa
Sept 1999 - Apr. 2000:	Convening of FOSA planning meetings, one for each sub-region
Sept 1999- June 2000	Preparation of study on the institutional framework for forestry in Africa
January - Nov. 2000	Preparation of country outlook papers, one for each African nation
March-Nov. 2000:	Preparation of thematic papers
Oct 2000 - Sept 2001:	Preparation of the drafts of the five sub-regional reports
Sept. 2001- Dec 2002:	Preparation of the draft executive summary/overview report for the African region
Jan - April 2002	Extensive review and revision of the draft reports
April-July 2002:	Presentation of the documents for endorsement at the African Forestry and Wildlife Commission and the Near East Forestry Commission.

What are the management and coordination arrangements ?

FAO is providing technical leadership for FOSA and is responsible for the final content of the study. The ADB is providing major financial and technical support to the study. Supporting bodies include the following:

· FOSA task forces in FAO and the African Development Bank - for both technical and logistical support of the programme. The FAO task force will comprise a wide range of technical experts in FAO Headquarters, forestry officers in the Regional and Sub-Regional Offices for Africa and the Near East (North Africa). The FAO focal points are: Ms Susan Braatz (FAO Rome) and Mr. Peter Lowe (FAO Regional Office for Africa). Mr. Frank S. Kufakwandi is the designated focal point for the ADB.

· National focal points for FOSA - each country has been invited to nominate a FOSA National Focal Point for the study. These focal points may identify two other partners (contact points) in each country to cover the private sector and non-governmental/civil society perspectives. The national focal points are invited to attend the sub-regional planning meetings (and other meetings as the need arises) and will be responsible for the production of the country outlook study and for provision of other support at the country level in the implementation of FOSA.

· Expert Advisory Group - made up of about 10 regional forestry experts who will provide technical advice on the study. The group will meet for planning of the study and for the discussion/review of the final reports of FOSA.

b) The Outlook - principles

Translation of the Power point presentation available in the French version of the workshop report.

Slide 1 

Definition

Outlook : is a science which aims at studying the technical, scientific, economic and social causes that speed up the evolution of the modern world and the prevision of the situations which could come from the conjugaed influences.

Perspective : a) hope (or fear) of events considered as possible although distant ; b) way of considering events or things.

Slide 2

What is it ?

Not a prediction of the future !

But

An intellectual work

To diminish the uncertainties attached to the choices and the decisions realed to the future

Slide 3

Why ?

The outlook is a efficient tool for the management of the natural resources

Future = space for freedom if :

- anticipated

- not mortgaged

Our Century passes on untreated problems !

Slide 4

The Forestry Sector is in a constant and rapid evolution

· Complex management

· Changing and evolutive functions

· Speeding up of trade off

· Collective responsibilies of forested areas

Help for decision making is needed !

Slide 5

Tool for experts

· Environment and outlook have common interests

- System analysis = envir./ecological / population = slow systems

- Concerned by the long term

- Concerned by the public wealth

· Estimate of the uncertainties and the risks of the actions and decisions which have impacts on the future

· Reinforce the principle of Precaution

Slide 6

The Principle of Precaution

· Normative reference - recognised as international rule - which permits to decline any offer or activity if there is a risk to damage the health or the environment.

· Doen't reduce the risk but creates the debate

· Social actors facing the risks

- request for expertise

- public debates

Slide 7

FAO experience

· 1946 - Forests and forest products- world situation

· 1976 - Development and Forest Resources in Asia and Far east - 1961 - 1991

· 1981 - Agriculture towards 2000

· 1986 - European timber and prospects ot the year 2000 and beyond

· 1998 - Asia Pacific Forestry towards 2010 - report of the Asia Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study.

Slide 8

Outlook in the forestry sector in France

· Two directing stream lines

- clear interest of the forest

- the importance of the « filière bois »

· 4 main scenarios

- Forests = source of industrial wood

- Industries and multi- functions

- All territorial

- Separation of spaces and functions

Slide 9

Who can propose an outlook ?

For a start,

anyone having a good common sense and able to organize a trip for his family

..... and to apply the same principles to the forestry sector.

Slide 10

Approach

· Collective work on thelong term based on methodological principles

· Needs rigor and imagination (avoid pre-conceived ideas, find original and pertinent ideas)

· Important role of the animator (coordination)

Slide 11

Methods

· Trends extrapolation : time series, i.e. woodfuels

· Scenarios building

· Historical analogy

· Collective opinion or Delphi method

Slide 12

Proposed method : organized reflection based on common sense

1° step : Identification of the engine of changes

2° step : outlook when changes are normal

3° step : description of a pessimistic and a optimistic situation

4° step : finally description of a desirable scenario

-----------------------------------------c) Terms of reference of the FOSA Focal Point - in ppt.



d) The country Outlook Paper

Preparation of the country outlook paper is one of the most critical and important first steps in developing the sub-regional and regional forestry outlook reports. The main objective of the country outlook paper is to take a forward look at the forestry sector in the country. Starting from the present status of forestry in the country, the paper will seek to visualise the most likely situation that will develop as regards forests and forest industries during the next 20 years and to assess the likely implications - economic, social and environmental - of the developments in the sector. It will do this by identifying the important forces of change (change drivers), and based on a critical analysis of these, predict how these are likely to affect the sector. The report will indicate the assumptions made about policy, institutional and technological changes. It will also take into consideration intersectoral linkages.

A. Time frame:

The country outlook paper should be provided to FAO not later than 30 September 2000 for North, West, and Central Africa; and 30 November 2000 for East and Southern Africa.

B. Length of the country paper:

30 - 40 pages excluding the annexes.

C. Contents of the country paper:

The following outline is indicative and needs to be adopted to meet the specific needs of each country. The objective of the outline is to indicate the whole scope of possible issues that may be considered in visualising the future. Some countries, however, will find that certain of the points listed below are not relevant to them, and thus will not be included in their paper.

Suggested Outline for the Country Outlook Paper

1. Introduction:

· Objectives of the paper.

· Background (one or two pages on the current status of the forestry sector, with detailed information to be provided as tables in the ANNEX)

2. The Change Drivers:

Given the current situation, identify the factors that may bring about changes in the forestry sector during the next two decades (until 2020):

· Socio-economic changes (population, urban-rural distribution of population, changes in per capita income, distribution of income, social development indicators, poverty, etc.)3;

· Overall economic performance, anticipated changes in the relative role of the different sectors, impact of economic liberalisation policies., etc;

· Policy and institutional changes (ongoing efforts to make changes with regard to ownership and management of resources and expected changes; probable changes in policy and institutional arrangements that determine management of forest and tree resources);

· Developments in the agriculture sector and their implications on forestry (e.g.: diversion of forest land, increased dependence of marginal farmers and landless on forests); probable changes in the dependence on land for employment and income; degree of self-reliance in food production;

· Industrial development and its direct and indirect implications on forestry (including the demand for raw material, shift of labour from land based activities). Will the industrial development be adequate to absorb the increase in labour force?

· Developments in the services and other sectors ( e.g. tourism) and their potential impacts;

· Changes in energy use and their implications on forestry, including potential changes in use of non-wood energy sources that will alter the degree of dependence on biomass energy resources

· Developments in infrastructure and communications;

· Trade liberalisation;

· Policy changes in the forestry sector;

· Technological changes in the forestry and allied sectors;

· Trends in investment in the forestry sector (increase or decrease and the source and type of investment)

· Other factors that may contribute to changes (positive and negative) in the forestry sector

3. Forestry Sector in 2020:

Visualise the most likely situation that may develop in the forestry sector during the next two decades. Specifically identify the situation with regard to the following in the year 2020, taking into account the impact of the change-drivers described in Chapter 2:

3.1. State of forests and plantations:

_ Area under forests, forest cover, growing stock;

_ State of natural forests (including area under sustainable management, level of application of criteria and indicators of SFM, contribution of natural forests to wood production, etc.);

_ State of plantation forestry - area and productivity, proportion of the contribution of plantations to wood production, degree of sustainability of plantation management;

_ State of trees outside forests - area and their role in production of wood and non-wood products;

_ Status of non-wood forest products - changes in the nature of products and their contribution to income and employment;

_ Conservation of biodiversity and protective functions of forests (area expected to be under parks and protected area systems; area to be under systematic management for their protective functions; changes in management practices in production forests for the reason of conservation of biodiversity);

_ State of park management and eco-tourism (indicate the most likely changes).

3.2. State of forest industries:

_ Probable state of forest industries in comparison with the present situation (indicate the type of industries, the main products, state of technology, the markets served by the industries, etc;); which of the present industries would have survived and flourished and which of these would have perished?

_ Competitiveness and the comparative advantages of the forest industries.

3.3. Wood demand - supply situation:

_ Anticipated degree of deficit/ surplus with regard to different products;

¬ Industrial round wood and other products;

¬ Woodfuel and other biomass based energy supply;

_ Degree of dependence on imports to meet demand.

3.4. Social and economic implications:

_ Contribution of forestry to income and employment and its relative role vis-a-vis other sectors;

_ Other social functions, including food security (In what way they are expected to be different from now?)

3.5. Forestry and environment:

_ Conservation of biodiversity; (will forest-based biodiversity be better conserved, and how?)

_ Other protective values of forests (what would be the role of forests with regard to watershed protection, arresting land degradation, control of desertification, sequestration of carbon, etc, in comparison with the present situation. Are these functions expected to be better fulfilled and how?)

3.6 Institutional framework for forestry

_ The structure and functions of forest and wildlife administrations;

_ New roles for the private sector and local communities in forest management;

_ New arrangements in forestry education and research

4. Change facilitation: What needs to be done?

· Factors that are critical for improvement of the situation or to avoid undesirable outcomes;

· What kind of changes are required: within the forestry sector and outside the forestry sector;

¬ Policy and institutional changes;

¬ Enhancing investment in forestry;

¬ Technological changes.

· Feasibility of the changes and how to strengthen the positive factors and mitigate the negative effects;

· Roles and responsibilities of various agencies (governments, private sector, NGOs, civil society, donor agencies, etc.)

5. Summary and conclusions

· Important findings of the country outlook paper.

ANNEXES

1. List of the major studies/reports on forestry and related areas produced within the last 10 years.

2. Statistical tables relating to forestry, forest industries and production, consumption and trade of forest products (refer to the FAO Yearbook of Forest Products; indicate differences where they exist).

3. Investment in forestry sector during the last 5 years (by government, private sector and ODA).

4. Country socio-economic indicators (taken from FOSA's social and economic background document).

5. List of reports/studies relating to other sectors relevant to developing the outlook for the forestry sector.

1 The country groupings by sub-region are attached. They are based on those used by the African Development Bank. They differ from FAO's regional groupings.

2 ECOWAS-Economic Community of West African States; CILSS-Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel; SADC- Southern African Development Community.

3 the demographic and economic data should be taken from the social and economic baseline study