NIBEGALISO - today
NIBEGALISO is a country covering several ecological zones extending from dry to wet
climatic conditions. The vegetation covering most of the land area is reflective of the diverse
climatic and topographic features of the country. The socio-economic situation of the country (GDP) classifies NIBEGALISO as a poor developing country. The multi-ethnic population is increasing dramatically and is concentrated in the urban centers and zones of active economic activity. Literacy level is in general considered good. The rural population (still in the majority) live subsistently off the land through agriculture and livestock.The availability of crude oil fetches a significant foreign exchange to the country. The forestry sector is run by a capable administration but the situation is continuously deteriorating due to demographic, anthropogenic and climatic pressures. At the same time, a relatively recent discovery of precious minerals is in the process of modifying the economic wherewithall of this young democratic republic.
NIBEGALISO - in 2020
Scenario 1
The fall of prices of raw materials in the world market had a devastating effect on the public
income and the promises the newly discovered mineral vanished into thin air. However, in
spite of the financial difficulties because of the government's dynamism, wise investments were made in priority sectors such as education, health, and research. These efforts are at present yielding fruits and the idustrial and services (technological) sectors are making significant progress generating numeroushigh value added employment. After a very long and difficult period following a reduction in financial resources, the agriculture and forestry sectors are actually better staffed, funded and strive to specialize in order to meet the competition stemming from global trade and the environmental exigencies of its population.
Scenario 2
The development of the mines in the southern part of the country totally changed the economic landscape of the country. In an unstable political climate, the inter-ethnic tussle for power intensifies. Although the production of precious minerals provide lots of financial returns, the social situation is continuously deteriorating due to lack of appropriate financing of priority sectors such as health, education and infrastructure. Given the permanent insecurity reigning in the country, the population are moving into the metropolitan cities which are being increasingly cut off from the rural areas. The rural population abandonned to their fate try to do the best they can for themselves. The forestry sector, without budgetry support or appropriate staffing, falls apart.
Scenario 3
In a context of social stability, globalization and the liberalization of trade encourage the emergence of a dynamic private sector and an organized civil society. The intense global competition had caused the closing down of mines but appropriate investments allowed for the development of the human resources potentials within the country. Partnerships with the outside world compensated in large measures for deficiences, enabling the country to keep on the path of positive progress through technology and service sectors. The opening up of fast communication routes in the sub region has created specialized zones of exchange and development. However, the technological progress left on its trail an abandonned rural zone. Fuel wood utilization has considerably diminished in favour of fossil fuels. Following international conventions such as those on carbondioxide sequestration or genetic conservation, the environmental constraints on the country are beginning to weigh on it. At the perifery of economic active zones, forest products are processed, nevertheless employment remains volatile due to rapid movements.
Objective of the exercise
The objective of this exercise is to delibrate and consider as a group, in the face of a given situation, the implications on the development of forestry sector so as to:
(a) prepare for an anticipated change and/or
(b) act to induce a desirable change
Exercise
For each scenario, ask the following two questions:
What does this augur for the forestry sector?
and as such what plan do I put forward for addressing the situation or what can I do now?
Please suggest
A) Two actions or areas of activity which ought to become priorityin order to better prepare the forestry sector to deal with problems generated by social, technical and econonmic contexts suggested above.
B) An initiative (reform) which the forestry administration should take to bring about the proposed actions and to better fulfil its role.
Résults of the discussions and proposals made on this hypothetical country
The participants were distributed into three working groups: the English speaking group (E), the French speaking group of the humid zone (H) and the French speaking group of the dry zone (S).
For the scénario 1
Group |
Priority 1 |
Priority 2 |
E |
· Investment in education , health, infrastructures · Good governance · Equitable distribution of wealth |
Establishment of forestry project in Agroforrestry and plantation development. |
H |
Financement cmpagne information sur le situation du secteur |
Renforceer les capacités techniques et orpérationnelles du secteur forestier |
S |
Sensibilisation globale (et du pouvoir politique) sur la dégradation forestière |
Sensibilisation société civile Médiatisation des conséquences |
For the scénario 2
Group |
Priority 1 |
Priority 2 |
E |
Investment in indusry and Agroforestry |
Intersectoral cooperation in sound plantation policy and agro-forestry |
H |
Renforcement de la recherche développement |
Diversification des activtés forestières : écotourisme ; transformation des produits forestiers. |
S |
Formation - éducation dans le secteur |
Gouvernance Décentralisation de la gestion forestière |
For the scénario 3
Group |
Priority 1 |
Priority 2 |
E |
Rural develpt strategies Incentives (salaries) to live in rural areas |
Increase fuelwood production source of energy |
H |
Reconstitution du couvert forestier |
Elaboration d'une législation adaptée - secteur privé - régulation des flx internationaux |
S |
- Dévelpt alternatives énergie de substitution - Technologies nouvelles |
Promotion politiques adéquates Développement coopération internationale Plantation industrielle |
General comment: the participants have mainly proposed activities to be developed in the future to face the proposed forecasted situation and not activities to be implemented today to be prepared for the consequences (positive or negative) of the possible proposed futures. The concept of prospective analysis has still to be developed.
