FORESTRY OUTLOOK STUDY FOR AFRICA (FOSA)
SOME KEY QUESTIONS/ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION IN THE CONTEXT OF IDENTIFYING FUTURE SCENARIOS OF FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA
(Draft for discussion and comments)
The Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (FOSA) is designed to provide the future scenario / scenarios with regard to the development of forestry in the Region. Although the focus is on the broad pattern of development for the Region as a whole, considering the fact that forestry development is integral to the overall socio-economic development, one should expect considerable differences between countries. Even sub-regional focus will be misleading in the sense that the initial conditions obtaining in the countries within a given sub-region are different and the development path will be determined by a number of country-specific social and economic factors. Nevertheless, in providing regional and sub-regional overviews as also to facilitate developing outlook papers at the country levels, there are several common questions that will help to define the probable future scenarios. A provisional list of issues/ questions that may be considered for discussion are provided below:
Demographic and economic changes:
1. Impact of population growth and urbanisation on forestry in Africa. Average annual rate of growth of population in Africa during 1995-2000 is estimated as 2.36%. Although this is expected to decline to about 1.94% during the period 2015 -2020 the population is estimated to increase to 1,186 million in 2020 from the present level of 783 million. Are we likely to witness a significant decrease in forest cover on account of this? Will there be significant structural changes in the economies such that the pressure on forests will be to some extent mitigated?
2. Recent studies on the impact of HIV/AIDS suggest that several countries would face a number of problems on account its impact on demography, life expectancy, availability of skilled labour and increasing cost of healthcare. What are the possible impacts - direct and indirect- of AIDS on forestry?
Deforestation:
3. What will be the scenario for deforestation in Africa by 2020? Between 1990 and 1995 the deforestation is estimated as 3.748 mllion ha. Will this trend continue, decline or accelerate? Which are the countries where deforestation would have been reduced/ arrested/ reversed by 2020?
4. Will there be diversification of the economies that dependence on land will decline to such an extent that deforestation would also decline? Will the existing resource use pattern, and the demographic changes permit this?
Economic liberalisation and globalisation:
5. What will be the impact of economic liberalisation and globalisation on forestry in Africa? Will this perpetuate the traditional role of Africa as a producer of raw material and not as a processor?
6. What are the comparative advantages of the African forestry sector which will enable it to play a key role in the development of the countries?
7. What has been the impact of structural adjustment programmes on forestry? Considering the fact external debt has been a major constraint in enhancing investment, what are the possible direct and indirect impacts of reducing debt on forestry?
Role of Africa as a producer of wood and share in global trade:
8. Will Africa emerge as an important forest products producing region by 2020? What are the opportunities for the emergence of such a scenario? Or which of the countries/ regions have the potential to emerge as leading producers of tropical timber? Among the five regions in Africa, which are those having considerable potential to emerge as leaders in wood production and processing?
9. What are the opportunities for Africa to emerge as a major net exporter of forest products? And under what conditions?
10. Certification and labeling of forest products is emerging as critical especially in determining access of forest products to certain markets. Will certification and labeling expected to become widely adopted in Africa? What are the emerging scenarios in the context of changing direction of trade? What are the factors that will encourage widespread use of certification and are these factors likely to become important in the next two decades?
11. Africa has a strong traditional forest products-based handicrafts sector. There is also a growing furniture industry. What are the opportunities for developing these further in the context of emerging market opportunities and improvement of technologies? Will it be possible for African handicrafts and furniture producers to tap this niche market?
Shifts in the use of forests:
12. Currently fuelwood and charcoal forms the most important produce from the forestry sector and most of it is collected from forests, wastelands and agricultural lands, largely dependent on natural regeneration. Will there be any significant shifts from wood fuel to other sources of energy or will there be increasing commercialisation of wood fuel to encourage public and private investment in wood fuel plantations?
13. In a number of countries, eco-tourism centred on national parks and game reserves has emerged as an important activity. What are the long-term potentials for eco-tourism in Africa? What are the conditions under which eco-tourism could become an important activity?
Institutional changes:
14. Many countries in Africa are bringing about institutional changes in forestry, especially through enhancing private sector involvement. Privatisation of forest plantations under the forest departments has been pursued in a number of countries. What are the conditions under which privatisation could enhance investment in forestry?
15. What is the experience of community based forest and tree management in Africa? What are the lessons that can be learned from these? Under what conditions community based approach is sustainable? Which are the countries and situations where community based management will find wider acceptance and under what circumstances it will be less relevant? Could we expect a significant increase in the role of community initiatives in forestry in Africa?
16. Many African countries are in the process of decentralisation of administration, empowering the provincial, district and local level organizations in development administration? What are its implications on forestry? Will the local level organizations be in a position to implement sustainable forest management?
Investment in forestry:
17. What is the scope for increased foreign investment in the forestry sector in Africa? Will this be centered on (a) harvesting and (b) processing or will there be an increase in reforestation and afforestation?
18. What is the scope for increased domestic investment in forest conservation and management? Considering the present condition of the economies, could we expect significant public sector outlay on forestry?
19. What are the opportunities for Africa to tap funds under CDM in support of forestry development? Is this likely to be an important source of funding or will it be a short-lived phenomena with only marginal impact? What are the comparative advantages of Africa in getting a large share of the CDM funds?
Role of science and technology:
20. What are the directions of development in science and technology in forestry in Africa? Is there sufficient/ adequate investment to facilitate the generation of scientific knowledge appropriate to the needs of Africa? Will forestry in Africa be driven largely by the internal science and technology capability?
21. What is the probable impact of developments in information technology in Africa? Will it make any significant difference in forestry or such impacts will be only marginal? What will be the possible impact of information technology on forestry? Specifically what are the areas there is considerable potential for its application? Or will information technology will percolate to a small section of the urban, well-to-do people and remain inaccessible to the majority, perpetuating the "information-divide" that already exists.
