The Change Drivers

As mentioned before, the major part of Angolan population is more concentrated along the coastal zone, recognised for its development as a consequence of colonial policy. This long traditional trend is nowadays aggravated by the civil war faced by the country. The coastal zone is characterised by scarcity of vegetation cover despite of the scattered tree species such as Brachystegia, Julbernardia and Isoberlinia commonly found especially in the plateau. There is also an important presence of Hiphaene spp., Adansonia digitata associated to Coleosperma mopane, Spirostachys africana and various leguminosaceae such as Acacia spp., Burkea, Faidherbia albida among others.

The pressure made on forestland cover is intense and extensive due to population living in the coast to satisfy their basic needs. Therefore, forest constitutes the main source of income for many families living in rural areas, specially undertaking charcoal production activities. Another fact no less important is the expansion of shifting agriculture, responsible of large devastated land cover areas per year, very difficult to assess in terms of extension.

The degradation caused by urban inhabitants is more noted around the main cities and towns for energy supply and at some extent for agricultural practices, undertaking small-scale farm activities. An important number of these inhabitants are war displaced coming from rural areas. Fuelwood and logs for different purposes are certainly the main forest products more needed by the population. This fact is alarming in the coastal zone according to Angola Environment Status Quo Assessment Report carried out in 1992 by IUCN. In the inland part of the country the tendency seems to be favourable for the single fact that the interior population is lower comparing the occupied area and the access to the forest resources is almost difficult due to the lack of security. Therefore the conservation of forestry resources could be optimal if pressure on it were not relevant. However, the lack of study assessment may not allow to absolutely confirming the fact.

In search of definitive peace lasting four years and UNITA's statement-movement in armed conflict and the formation of a national reconciliation government in April 1991, entrusted to unleash the last peace process phase signed in Lusaka in November 1994, with the MPLA government, Angola has again entered in civil war.

Economic growth

On perspectives of petroleum and diamond sectors growth, it is foreseen, in the first case, that the growth in volume production reach 43% in 1991, (vouching a million of barrels in 2000).

On the basis of presupposed presented, the government admits that there can an increase for the Angolan economy during the programme's observance at a medium rate of 10%.

On the optics search, the public investment growth at a pearly medium rate of 13,2%, should directly be associated with the economic infra-structures recovery efforts. The private investment should also have a fundamental increase about 6% per year.

Finally, it is estimated that imports increase in a low rhythm compared to GDP on a flexibility basis, varying in 0.3-0.5 intervals. It is foreseen that imports reach about US$ 3 200 million in 1998, and about US$ 3 800 million in year 2000. Taking into account the chosen strategy the external debt paying off, there is a tendency towards actually decreasing in financial needs at about US$ 1 159 millions in 1998. This is due to the following reasons: a reduction of public current transfers, of which should be re-orientated to emergency help for the support to investment. On these conditions, it is hoped a net project of US$ 116 million in 1998 and of US$ 94 million in 2000. In relation to prior tendencies, a gradual increase is anticipated of official donations and of commission credits, without considering the PRC actions (community rehabilitation programme), which will develop prom US$ 130 million in 1998 to US$ 195 million of in 2000. The direct foreign investment will be very important in terms of external capital resources, with about US$ 530 million in 1998, progressively increasing to US$ 636 million in 2000.

The total donation available applied in the GDP scope related to 1998 reached US$ 632 millions, corresponding to donations of general State - Budget - general incomes in US$ 216 millions value and external sources (FAD, Portugal and Brazil credit livers, of about 356 millions of dollars). On relation to FAD (Arab Fund of Development) including the donations affected to non - utilised sectors in 1991 totalled US$ 150 million. The budget attribution by sectors was confronted by a limitation factor well identified, which circumscribe to the fact that the credit lines with Brazil and Portugal are essentially linked to big projects, namely of Capanda, water supply to Southeast of Luanda and the country's political administrative centre.

On the field of social sectors, it is to note the donation of about US$ 40 million with the objective to expand the proportional basis to qualitative improvement of the ministered teaching and in about US$ 42 million for health, to rehabilitate and improve the country's various structures.

The investment related to Agriculture involved US$ 14 million directed to developing actions and the rehabilitation of infrastructures. However, the transforming industry sector for the three years, 1998-2000 depends to the adaptation of a private sector programme, specially of micro, small and medium enterprises, creation of conditions for the re-industrialisation, implementation of imports substitution programmes and exports promotion.

The macro-economic evolution

Limits exist for the inflation rate, according to a decreasing tendency of from 32% in 1998, to 20% in 1999, and 15% in 2000. There is a programme reduction of public deficit comparing to GDP, estimating it to 14.0 in 1998 , 9.5 in 1999 and -2.8 in 2000 respectively. These limits are based on progressive reduction of the needs of the public sector financing.

There is a programme reduction of external deficit measured by the CTB Current Transactions Balance comparing to GDP. Consequently, and taking into account the strategy for the foreign debt paying off, it is foreseen a decreasing tendency in the needs of the economic financing of about US$ 1,159 million in 1998.

The estimate of these financing needs are based on the set of presupposed explained as follows:

A traditional reduction of current public transports of which will be re-oriented to the emergency aid for investment support. On these conditions it was expected to a US$ 116 million net profit entrance in 1998, and of US$ 94 million in 2000.

With regard to the former tendency, it is anticipated a gradual growing of official donations and commercial credits without considering the PRE-Economics Rehabilitation Programme actions which should develop an increase from US$ 130 million in 1998 and US$ 195 million in 2000.

The direct foreign investment should fulfil a very important share in the active of foreign capital resources with about US$ 530 million in 1998, progressively increasing to US$ 636 million in 2000.

The investment plan 1997-2000

The general objectives of the Investments Programme for the Basic Network are as follows:

the technological digitalisation;

the service quality improvement;

the telephone density increase and imbalance reduction between region;

the after diversity; and

the resources reduction and the creation of alternatives.

The concentration areas of the investment programme are as follows :

access network (terminal network);

projects with high operational leverage;

potential projects of service quality; and

cost of outwork projects.

The investment programme has subjacent of the access universal policy to telephone and that is why not only follows a telephone density objective as well as a telephone penetration objective (quality of served municipalities). For the materialisation of enunciated objectives, an investment effort is required until the year 2000 as of 45 million of dollars per year of which above 70% in foreign currency.

More important aims:

Reach telephone curative with a penetration of 500 served localities in the year 2000, reducing the actual in balances between Luanda and Provinces.

Reach a digitalisation degree of the basic network of 90% in the year 2000 and of 100% in the year 2002;

Ensure a minimum profit of 8% in investment capitals, with an indebted tax not higher than 50%;

Reach the number of 20 for the active workers ratio for 100 lines in service in the year 2000 and a number of 200 lines in the year 2003; and

Have a quality level of 80% of the international standard in the year 2000 and of 95% in the next year.

On quality and service terms, the programme objectives are to significantly increase the rate of telephone communications efficiency, such as in local system, long distance and international. The number of claims for 100 telephones will also significantly come down, as well as the medium period of break down recovery.

Foreign trade

In 1991 imports totalled US$ 1.6 billion and annual exports US$ 3.4 billion. The chief imports were textiles, foodstuffs, heavy machinery, and iron and steel. Petroleum accounted for some 90 percent of the exports, which have traditionally included coffee, diamond, sisal, fish and palm oil. Since Angola's independence, Portugal has been replaced by the United States of America as the country leading destination for exports. Other export destinations are Germany, Brazil, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Belgium and Luxembourg which conduct their foreign trade as a single entity. Portugal remains the leading source for imports, followed by the United States of America, Brazil, the Netherlands

Evolution of main product exports

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Value, US$ million

1994 1995 1996 1997* 1998**

Crude oil 2 817 3 416 4 645 4 493 1 095 767

Diamond 57 75 148 128 32 115

Coffee 0,8 5,3 5,2 4,7 2,0 1,2

Total export 2 875 3 496 4 798 4 493 1 129 883

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The Forestry sector represented by the Institute for Forestry Development is administratively under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, with administrative and financial autonomy. The IDF is broadly represented in all 18 provinces of the country. According to its mandate, the IDF is responsible for guiding, managing, defining, monitoring and controlling normative procedures with regard to the sustainable development, utilisation and conservation of forest state in order to fulfil the basic needs of the population and contributing to the socio-economic aspects of the country and to the welfare of its inhabitants as well.

In parallel to IDF, there is the Directorate of Agriculture and Forests. This organ created early 90, poorly represented in the national sphere is only operating at the head quarter in Luanda. As main tasks, this institution is called to formulate policy and guidance for both components, i.e. in agriculture and forest fields.

Participation of other government organs

The other government organ to whom responsibility lays on to secure the implementation of the policy capable to ensure the conservation and protection of natural resources is the Secretariat of Environment created in the beginning of 90 before to become effectively Ministry of Fisheries and Environment in 1998. This very important partner of the Ministry of Agriculture is at embroidery phase. Its association to fishery can be a negative aspect for developing a sound environmental policy, however its existence is a very positive asset.

Apart from these there is a lot of government institutions with linkage to the forestry sector such as the Ministry of Energy and water, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Industry just to mention a few, able to contribute enormously to the development of the sector, and everyone has a particular role to play in the overall context.

Participation of the private sector

The participation of other sectors to the development of the forestry sector continues to be a great challenge for the institution in charge of the forest. Private sector is considered to be as one of the key factor to enhance the production of wood, non-forestry products and non-wood products for local consumption and export. However its participation is hampered by various factors such as the unrest, being the main cause for access to the forest and the inadequate policy still in place with regard to land tenure among others.

Participation of the civil society

The civil society plays an important role in the development of the forest sector. It is important to take into consideration the needs of different interest groups in the society, and to define the roles of which each major group should play for the development of the sector. The participation of the rural communities which constitute one of the marginalised groups of the society will require major attention due to its important contribution to the sustainable management of the forest resources.

Participation of NGOs

The national NGOs are big in number, but still very limited in field actions In relation to forestry sector, there is a good impact from the society together with international NGOs operating in the country, though mainly in social sectors. The expectation is that after the unrest their contribution will be valuable for the sustainable development of the forestry sector, by assisting it to carry out field programmes and projects identified through previous studies already finalised, specially with regard to the management of the forest resources.

Soon after the independence the country opted to centralised economic system for its development. This system implanted in the country took almost fifteen ( 15 ) years until the beginning of years 90, when Angola shifted from centralised economic system to free market system. During the fifteen years period, the government made a statement declaring the industry as decisive factor for development and agriculture as a basic factor. Unfortunately the system did not work as expected. However, the results achieved brought with big concerns still weighing for redressing the situation of the agriculture and industry sectors. As a consequence, good infrastructures have been lost, distorted many potential investors left the ground leaving the country.

Large agriculture land areas were nationalised and government units have been created and at some extent, given to the people without adequate production means to implement government policy.

As a consequence, production drastically decreased, capital investment in agriculture became a critical issue, productive units were abandoned and the war situation took a great magnitude over the country.

The beginning of ninety brought minor changes on ground with the introduction of agricultural reforms, but there is still too much to do in terms of investment policy, since the country continues to do not absorb significant foreign investments in agriculture activities field. However, extensive agriculture activities have a negative impact toward the forest, large areas are substituted by crop production. This trend is still not relevant in the country for the fact that the agriculture so far in place are still very weak, mostly practised by small-scale farmers. Even the land tenure is not a real serious problem in Angola, the lack of adequate land classification is bringing with some constraints, forcing rural people to opt to marginal lands to satisfy their domestic needs in terms of production crop and monetary income.

Land is for many rural inhabitants in Angola and Africa as well, the basic mean providing food, services and income for sustaining their lives. It is reported that actually around 60% of the population of the country lives in rural areas. Also to note that the unrest is the major cause contributing negatively to the self-reliance of the population in terms of food production. A very important number of its inhabitants, especially the war refugees relay on United Nations donations with emphasis to World Food Programme, WFP while during the colonial era the country was a self-sufficient in food production.

Angola with its immense natural resources and in a peace atmosphere associated with good policy of investment could be able to produce enough food for its inhabitants and ensure exports toward other countries in the SADC region and at some extent outside of the SADC community.

However the development of agriculture may also bring negative impacts if corrective measures are not observed. Agriculture so far carried out is intensive, requiring big areas for crop and livestock production activities. Therefore, the degradation of forest resources and the loss of important biodiversity in terms of quantity and quality could be another problems and being so, the forestry sector and other stakeholders are called to look at critically there aspects.

The industrial sector similarly to the agriculture still presents the same picture. The country has became after the independence a major dependent vis à vis to the external market in goods and services. The industrial sector continues operating under its full capacity. Most of the units are closed and abandoned. The new policy to recuperate the industrial park is still in a grass root phase, and is not operating accordingly for the same reasons related to security problems. Efforts are made in order to bring foreign investors in this important sector of the national economy. However, there is a need to elaborate more on issues concerning the investment policy and to the other hand, peace will continue to be a decisive factor to guaranty the successful of the industry development, specially for the forest industry almost paralysed and other vital economical sectors of the country.

There is no doubt that the development of industry brings with deep changes in the ecosystems. In one hand it can be favourable for the forestry sector development and in particular with the forestry industry because it is expected that all industrial sector will tend to grow. However a suitable and adequate environmental policy must be put in place and be applied accordingly. In this context the country should be able to adhere and implement appropriate regional and international conventions and treaties among which CITES, CBD, ITTA just to mention a few.

Forests generate many services for the development of almost all sectors in Angola. Multiple functions derived from the forests constitute a good reason to value the forest as far as almost 80 percent of the population of the country depends to forest resources. Therefore, there is a range of functions fulfilled by forest largely present in Angola such the productive function, providing divers forest products, i.e. wood products and non-wood forest products for different purposes, wood fuels and biomass energy, crop production and grazing; protective functions such as conservation of ecosystems ( soil, fauna and water ); ecotourism and recreational functions.

As for the public works (including housing) there should be put at disposal about US$ 65 million for the rehabilitation of communication means. The beginning of the infra-structures rehabilitation of the electrical energy and water supply suggestions can absorb about US$ 103 million, including the donations corresponding to Capanda and to the new water supply project to Southeast of Luanda. The donation for the recovery of harbour, highway and import infra-structures, including budgets for the transportation means, is estimated at about US$ 42 million while for mail and telecommunications sectors the amount reaches US$ 16 million.

Angola's road system consists of about 72,600 km of roads, of which 11 percent are paved. The road network is inadequate for such a large area and is supplemented by a relatively well-developed internal air service, provided by the country's national airline. The total operated railroad track is about 2 950 km. The principal line, the Benguela Railroad, links mineral-rich Zambia and Katanga of RDC with the Atlantic port of Lobito. Because of instability, it was closed to international traffic from 1975 and has since operated sporadically. The country's chief ports are the cities of Lobito, Luanda and Namibia.

The beginning of the 90s was characterised by policy change to entire life of the country. Therefore the state has given up to centralised economic system trade to adhere to free market economy for the development. Despite of the war situation, the country has been achieving some good results in various areas. However, many things must be done in order to bring adequate and sustainable investments. Legal instruments in use should be in accordance with investors policy. The adhesion of the country to regional, such as COMESA and international trade conventions as well as their application to the ground is likely desired and encouraged. Therefore suitable mechanisms for their development and implementation remain a major task of which is expected to the state as vanguard to play a capital and decisive role. A trade liberalisation of important economic domains will in a certain way, bring substantial changes in the development of the economic sector of the country.

Changes operated within the forestry sector at the beginning of the last decade brought some improvements by separating the production and normative role of the government. The two government institutions leading the forest sector have a clear role to play for the development of the forestry sector. The National Directorate of Agriculture and Forest is responsible of normative issues while to the Institute for Forestry Development corresponds the implementation of policies. Private sector has a productive mission, communities and other classes have specific mission to fulfil in the process. Therefore participation approach is one of the important tool to be achieved by the sector.

The forestry sector has as a mandate to satisfy the basic needs of the population in terms of wood, forest products and services in order to contribute to the socio-economic life of the Nation. However there is a set of tools required to fulfil this purpose. Research is without doubt an important element to bring change in field actions undertaken by the sector as a whole. In this context, the private sector will have a great role to play by bringing biotechnology in country, despite of the interest shown by the Ministry of Science and Technology.

4.11.1. Regulatory Existing Instruments

According to Law No 13/88 of 16 July, the Council of Ministers authorises foreign investments, but may delegate the power to authorise, depending on its nature and size to the Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Finance and Ministry in charge of the branch of the activity to which the project relates.

There are three investment regimes:

Prior declaration, for investments between US$ 250,000 and US$ 5 million.

Prior approval, for investments between US$ 5 million and US$ 50 million.

Contractual for investment exceeding US$ 50 million.

Timber extraction and wood processing industry which involve the granting of concession falls under the contractual regime and must be specifically negotiated.

In special cases and depending on the importance of the investment to the national economy, bodies may be granted the following:

Exemption from, or reduction of income tax for set periods.

Exemption from, or one or more occasions and for set periods, of customs duties on imports of capital goods, accessories or spare parts, as well as on raw materials or other materials which do not exist in the country.

Exemption from, or reduction on one or more occasions of customs duties on exports.

The Ministry of Finance must authorise the transfer of net profits. Annual transfer of profits and dividends may be phased over the time if, by virtue of their size, they are likely to worsen balance of payments difficulties.

Trees planted outside of forests and natural scattered trees are almost everywhere in the country, specially where the ecological factors are favourable. Bringing together all trees outside forest in a country like Angola, it is evident that it will represent a very significant forestland area, able to fulfil the basic needs of many inhabitants in the country, apart from the plantations and natural forests. There is a will among many farmers to create forest in their individual farms. This trend is incessantly increasing in the country and it is expected that for the forthcoming years considerable forested areas be established in Angola. The only constraint for the time being is that there is no means to assess the extend, of TOF and at some extent its real value in the national economy as contribution.

The Constitution of 1992 approved the Law 21-C/92 the Law of Concession or so-called "Land Law". There is a clearly stated principle that local community land rights will be protected in the preamble of the Land Law; it recognises different forms of land access, including acquired by previous owners. These aspects are positive, however this law is based on the old concepts and reflects the old ideals of State following central planning principles.

This Law does not cover all national territory, excluding areas of public domains such as National Parks and Forestry Reserves, urban areas, airports, coastline, military and other public areas, just to mention a few. And to stress also, the same fails to cover in any but the most tangential way, the systems which regulate land access and rights for at least 95% of all units in the country.

Land use potential

The country represents immense land and forest resources and conflicts for land use are not a constraint since territorial area is relatively bigger comparing to the population size of the country. Arable land is estimated at about 8 million ha, forestland 54 million ha, permanent pasture land 33 million ha, mountain and shrubland 28 million ha, and others 4.9 million ha. During a large period, land and forest were in a very few proportion submitted to ownership for work according to the ideals of the State, but this trend did not work and new policy on Land tenure was necessary to be put in place and the equitable right of land concession as well.

Conflicts between different interest groups are inevitable in the future unless an appropriate political frame be found in order to accommodate possible conflicts raised. Indeed, Angola is a very large country but the best land will quickly disappear as it acquires new value as a productive asset after a good political atmosphere be established in the country.

As mains people's issues almost affecting the entire country aspects follow are mentioned:

Food security threatened as production shortfalls are translated into shortage in consumption;

Poverty, malnutrition, high proliferation of diseases and like malaria, tuberculosis AIDS even in few proportion;

Shortage of fuelwood supply as for as most of inhabitants depends on wood energy and in many areas they cannot afford it enough to fulfil their basic requirements;

Shortage of wood for multiple use

Scarcity of suitable productive land for crop and pasture production;

Weak support from the government institutions responsible for addressing people's issues;

Decreased urbanisation of most inhabitants;

Displaced and re-settlement of rural people largely affected by the war.

Permanent political instability; and

Special attention will be given to the support of women in the promotion of forest management, training of professional and technical forestry personnel, forest conservation through participation approaches and funding of small-scale farm forestry. Linkages between established women's groups and forestry extension should be vigorously promoted and developed.