I. Background

Although a number of smaller – scale fuel consumption has been carried out in different parts of Lesotho – notably, in the case of woodfuel, the Marketing studies of Steele and Ncholu 1983) and Wickstead (1984) the authoritative study was that of GoL / GTZ National Energy Survey. This was carried out in two stages: Rural Sector Energy Consumption (1986), Urban Sector Energy Consumption (1987), sampling 2000 rural and 500 urban households in all districts.

The consumption data was analysed by the Department of Energy. Future energy needs were forecast, energy sources were quantified, and projections were made of the future contribution from these sources towards meeting the forecast needs to the year of 2010 using the stated assumptions The assumptions included the rate introduction of the more efficient Appropriate Technology Section (ATS) produced ‘Mabotle’ household stove, the rate of introduction of house ceiling and wall insulation, the increased production of crop residues used for fuel, the increased use of paraffin etc.

The energy consumption data and the forecasts of the energy needs and supply were presented in the Lesotho Energy Master Plan (LEMP), with recommendations on how best to avoid future energy deficits. The proposals for woodfuel production were by far the greatest in energy units, and were presented as a very urgent emergency program requiring the planting of the equivalent of 7500 ha of fuelwood annually from 1986 to 2010.

However, additional data were collected after the initial surveys and the original data were up- dated. It took account of the reduced rate of trees planted since 1987, the fact that the use of cowdung as a fuel would almost certainly continue in spite of GoL’s desire that firewood be planted and used as an alternative, that Mabotle stoves were selling at a reduced rate etc. On the Energy demand side, the future demand for energy was considered under two different scenarios – anticipating different rates of electrification, different rates of introduction of draught –controlled stoves with dampered flues etc.

A revised version of LEMP was drafted in 1991. In respect of firewood, it reduced the target to planting the equivalent of 6000 ha of firewood trees every year until 2010. During discussions on the draft revision, the FD pointed out that a steadily – rising demand for firewood called for a steadily – increasing annual planting program at the appropriate rate to meet the demand in the year when each year’s trees ‘mature’ for firewood. (The division emphasised that the LEMP supply forecasts assumed that trees would be successfully grown, not simply for a target of trees being planted).

The Forestry Division drafted a phased planting program on this basis (see Table 2.5.6), using as safe planning figure for a program shared between the private sector and the Government of Lesotho (GoL) that tree planting might require 20% increased targets to accommodate the somewhat poorer production experienced in successful private planting.

Surveys performed in more than 2000 rural and 500 urban household in all districts of Lesotho for the development of the LEMP indicated that nearly three quarters of the total energy demand of Lesotho is met by biomass fuels in the forms of wood, shrubs, animals dung and agricultural residues. 88% of the residential energy demand is covered by such biomass, and in rural areas, it is close to 95%, the only other fuels consumed in reasonable quantities being mineral coal and paraffin.

Table 1: Structure of energy use by Rural Households (1986)

Origin: Table adjusted from Table 3.1 in volume I Part II of the LEMP (1988) ‘Energy Resources and Technology Assessment’. The LEMP table gave values for firewood and cowdung but no Total cost for these fuels.

Notes on Table 1:

1 terajoule (TJ) is 1 million megajoules (MJ) and therefore, 1 TJ / tone is 0.001 MJ / kg

The specific gravity of paraffin is given in ‘The Economist Measurement Guide’ as 0.79, and therefore a cubic metre of paraffin weights 750-kg.

* The consumption data were determined in the rural component of the National energy Survey 1986. The difference between "firewood" and "shrubs" in response in the Survey was generally based on stem diameter. There was no clear and consistent differentiation between "firewood" and "shrubs". Young shoots and small branches of exotic tree species were usually called "Shrubs" whereas thick pieces of firewood from indigenous trees were usually called "firewood". Essentially, "firewood" and "shrubs" should be grouped.

** A cost / tone of cowdung of M7.50 / tone was given in the LEMP Table. In general, cowdung is not a purchased fuel, however, and pages 5 – 16 of LEMP Volume I Part I reveal the figure of 7.50 / t to be the economic value of cowdung. The figure of 7.50 / t was therefore ignored, as LEMP does for shrubs (the collecting of which costs time).

It is also noteworthy that the value of M7.50 / t was calculated on the basis of a 20% maize yields increase from fields manured at a particular rate. In fact, records over several years show that, after manuring at a 1.5 times higher level (as recommended by the MoA), maize yields are increased by at least 200% for three years. Using this increase with the 1987 ruling selling price for maize, the economic value of cowdung should have been M40.00 / t – less the economic costs of applying it (ignored in the LEMP table and text).

*** If the economic value of cowdung is included in the table, then the economic value of crop residues should also be included. This value was calculated in the LEMP text in terms of ignoring the costs of gathering any of the residues. It is more appropriate to include only the prices of fuels that are purchased.

Table 2: Fuelwood (trees and shrubs) resources

MAI: Mean Annual Increment

Near densely populated areas, mostly lowlands

Near sparsely-populated areas, mostly mountains

* The original Table used a specific gravity of 0.55, but the text used 0.6. The table has been amended accordingly.

Origin: Lesotho Energy Master Plan Table 3,5 page 3-12.

Table 3: Afforestation rate to close the energy gap

Source: May 1994

Total Area required by 2004 assuming eucalyptus planted under Forestry division control = 152,604 ha.

Total Area required by 2002 assuming pines planted under Forestry Division control = 133, 577 ha.

Total Area required by 2004 assuming eucalypts planted privately =183,125 ha.

Total area required by 2002 assuming pines planted privately = 160,292 ha.

Notes on Table 3

The targets are based on the LEMP estimate of the fuelwood gap for 1984 (175 000 tons) becoming 680 000 tons by the year 2010.

It is assumed that the LEMP afforestation targets were based on eucalypt with plantation yields at 72 cum. / ha (48 t / ha) from plantations cut at 6 years. If trees are used which are harvested at a greater age because they grow more slowly, they have to be planted that much earlier, even if yielding the same 72 cum. / ha when actually cut).

The eucalypt fuelwood gap before 1998 could only be met by planting for more than the 1998 requirement and then cutting the excess even earlier, and similarly for the ‘pine fuelwood gap’ before 2000. This is not feasible, nor very desirable sylvi-culturally).