With respect to the forest sector, some observers would say that Latvia, " … has a long way to go …" – others, that Latvia, " … has come a long way …". This report favours the last perspective, as it more accurately captures the significance of the progress that has been achieved in recent years – and the measures that have already been initiated to continue and advance that process.
The brief conclusion presented below should be framed in the context of the constraints to further analysis arising from limited data sources and statistics and, as yet, limited participation by private sector interests. In this respect, what follows may more accurately be considered mid-term observations rather than conclusions.
Major conclusions having macroeconomic relevance to issues related to the optimisation of Latvia’s forest sector, in general, and its forest management structures and institutions include:
Latvia’s forest management practices must be upgraded to maximise the productive capacity of its forestlands.
Stumpage rates and revenues, if calculated according to a more conventional market oriented approach, would be higher.
Forest harvesting development planning is inadequate to support the planning needs of both the LSFS and the private sector.
The range of tenure arrangements should be broadened to accommodate a wider range of operators.
There are existing private sector operators who can form the basis of an internationally competitive manufacturing sector.
Latvia’s macroeconomic environment is progressively creating a "level" playing field for forest sector investors. Associated governance and institutional arrangements will most favour operators capable of operating under internationally competitive terms. The normal rationalisation that this climate supports will "weed out" less efficient operators and optimise forestland benefits overall.
A major effort is necessary to revitalise the FS human resources component. This is especially the case at the Regional and District level.
It is only possible to provide a rough estimate of the forest sector’s contributions to Latvia’s national economy. This will remain largely so until a more statistically rigorous and credible analysis accounts for Latvia’s timber supply, the products it produces, and the associated manufacturing and sales costs.
It is possible to say that the country’s forest resource currently represent, at their present stage of development, a major contribution to its economy. This will continue to be the case for several years to come. Because of the potential rates of growth that can be realised here, the forest sector’s contribution will increase in both absolute and relative terms. Its own output will likely grow rapidly as the FS addresses a number of critical issues – many of which have been discussed throughout this report. Its percentage of national output overall, will also grow – at least until a greater number of other sectors’ rates of growth overtake that of the forest sector’s. More exact estimates of the trajectory of the sector’s development may be possible towards the end of this project.
