This section defines the framework of the study. The reader will recognize that the scope of the study is broad and that the current efforts represent an initial thrust at defining, on a global, regional and national level, the factors influencing aquacultural production and growth. Additional methodologies are suggested for refining what is clearly a broad brush analysis and the need for more reliable data is described.
The specific objectives of this study are defined in the terms of reference provided to the study team as follows:
“Most predictions concerning the rate of increase and potentials for the production of fish and related products through aquaculture have been based primarily on resource considerations, e.g., on the availability of land and water, trained personnel, investment capital, etc., and little consideration has been given to external constraints such as consumer demand, competition with other means of producing animal protein and fats, and the competing demands for space and other resources to meet other societal needs. It is of some importance to the Fisheries Department to make assessments of the potential growth of aquaculture production which are as realistic as possible and to determine in what forms aquaculture is likely to be most competitive with other types of food production systems. It is proposed to convene a small working group of staff and consultants over a period of about one month to examine the above problems with the following terms of reference.
1. Review trends in the development of aquaculture in those countries where there is sufficient information available, and determine what significant differences exist, if any, among countries and/or among regions in their rates of development with particular reference to growth in production;
2. Advance hypotheses which might explain such differences as are found, considering ecologic and economic factors, the attitude of government toward aquaculture, and measures taken to promote and regulate its development;
3. Elaborate one or more strategies for developing medium to long range forecasts of the growth of production of fish and related aquatic products through aquaculture, which would be useable and useful for planning at national and global levels;
4. Suggest efficient and practical means of acquiring the data/information needed for making and improving such forecasts.
It is not intended that this study attempt either to measure the social and/or economic benefits of aquaculture, nor to propose the means to do so. This latter task, while also of use, could well be the subject of another exercise.”
1. Data
The data available for aquacultural production are of limited quality and extent, imposing severe limitations on the quantitative methods of analysis for predicting changes in production or in validating fully the methods themselves.
2. Time
The scheduled time, four weeks, defined the extent of the effort. Although, a longer time may not have produced better concepts, it would have produced a more finished document.
This study emphasizes production and, as such, may seem to ignore those programmes, such as training or research, which do not produce immediate results. This is a function of the assignment and not the importance of things other than those directly related to production.
Aquacultural production is that portion of fisheries production achieved through human intervention involving physical control of the organism at some point in its life cycle other than at harvest. This intervention can range from minimal, such as the trapping of shrimp seed stock in coastal lagoons to cause an eventual increase in harvest, to maximal, such as the production of trout in closed systems. Inherent in such a broad definition is the difficulty of collecting production data, as the role played by aquaculture in certain capture fisheries is not always clear. Thus, basic data from different countries and different times may not correspond to this definition.
The cultural techniques used during the control period include Extensive where all of the nutritional requirements are derived from natural sources without conscious human intervention, Semi-intensive where the carrying capacity of the system is enhanced through intentional fertilization and/or supplemental feeding, and Intensive where all of the nutritional requirements are met from external sources. As a practical matter, these definitions based on feeding requirements can be further correlated with space requirments with intensive culture requiring the least space per unit of production and extensive culture the most.
Not included in these definitions of Aquaculture is production resulting from the initial stocking of open water bodies to produce a self- propagating species such as is found for tilapia or carp.
Organizationally, aquacultural production will be described as Subsistence where activity is typically integrated into the other food production activities of a family or group of families and the product is consumed primarily by the producers or bartered with immediate neighbours, Domestic where the activity is based primarily on production to be used within the country with payment being made in the local currency to the producer through established market channels, and Export where the activity is based primarily on production for export to other countries with payment being made to the producer through marketing cooperatives or brokers and through established international marketing channels.
The sections of this report may initially appear independent of one another. In one section there is a review of present aquacultural growth rates, in another an analysis of maturity in aquacultural production, in another a snapshot of growth compared to factors within the countries and regions and finally a more abstract econometric approach to estimating growth. Despite the appearance of independence, the authors did seek conceptual unity among the sections.
Section 3 contains a description of basic aquacultural production statistics which is followed in section 4 by an analysis of the trends in aquacultural growth. These demonstrate both on a country and region basis the relative importance of aquaculture and whether production is expanding, contracting or stable. A description on how to obtain short-term predictions of production is given at the end of section 4. Section 5 follows with an analysis of Aquaculturally Developed Countries (ADC's). The concept of ADC's is introduced to guide planners as to the current upper ranges of aquacultural production. In other words, an analysis of growth from section 4 may suggest growth at 100 percent per year. This rate of growth clearly could not be sustained forever and the description of ADC's offers a basis for first estimates of reasonable expectations in terms of production.
Section 6 contains a detailed analysis of the factors that influence growth, i.e., what factors cause aquacultural production, globally and regionally, to accelerate or decelerate. The factors used in this analysis are based on expert opinion, both in written reports and discussions with FAO regional experts. The basic data on factor evaluation are provided as well as initial and proposed methods of analysis.
Section 7 describes an econometric approach to making medium and long-term forecasts with combinations of measureable (e.g., income per capita) and judgemental data. Because the data are not sufficient, only a general methodology is suggested as defined by the factors which should be included in an analysis.
Section 8 discusses the relationship of aquaculture to agriculture and capture fisheries.
Section 9 provides recommendations relative to data gathering and information dissemination.
