4.  TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AQUACULTURE BY REGIONS IN COUNTRIES

4.1  Introduction

This section of the report describes the rate of development in terms of growth in production in various regions and countries. Completeness and accuracy of growth indicators vary among countries because of inadequacies of statistical reporting systems. In some cases it has been necessary to estimate production and to correct obvious inaccuracies.

The discussion in this section is based on production and growth statistics by countries listed in Tables 3.1 and 3.2 and summarized by regions in Table 4.1. For comparison of aquaculture production with other food production indicators, Table 4.1 includes annual growth in percent for all foods and for fish harvest from wild stocks.

4.2  Analysis of Trends among Regions

The rate of development of aquaculture during the period 1975–1980 varied on a regional basis from 7.64 percent per year in Asia to -12.97 percent in Africa as indicated in Table 4.1. The rate of development among regions can also be compared on the basis of increased production, in tons of product per year, and by increases in food supplies in grams of aquaculture products per capita per year. On the basis of increase in product, the rate of development varies from 319 333 t/year in the Asia and Oceania region to -2 356 t/year in Africa. On the basis of increased product per capita, the rate of development varies from 123 grams/capita/year in the Asia and Oceania region to - 5 grams/capita/year in Africa (Table 4.1).

4.3  Analysis of Trends among Countries

Countries with recorded aquaculture production include at least 21 in Asia and Oceania, 22 in Europe, 2 in North America, 15 in Latin America and the Caribbean and 27 in Africa (Table 3.1 and 3.2). Ideally the present study should have included an analysis of trends in all of those countries. However, reliable statistics and direct knowledge of the status of aquaculture development made it necessary to select only a sample of representative countries for the analysis in this section.

Analysis of trends among countries is also complicated by variations in physical environments, species and many other factors which will be discussed in another section of the report. This section will describe differences in the rate of development in various countries.

1.   Asia

A number of Asian countries have impressive records of aquaculture growth during the period 1975–1980. In some this is a continuation of aquaculture which began decades or centuries ago and which continues to expand from a relatively large base adding large amounts of food to the domestic supply and in some cases, providing product for export. Such countries include China (including the province of Taiwan¹), Japan, India, Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand. Within this group the rate of aquacultural development varies by country and by commodities as shown in Table 4.2.

¹ Taiwan is considered separately from China in this section as the character of its development is somewhat different from the mainland and as production data are separately available.

* “China” indicates the PRC less Taiwan Province on this table

Mollusc production based on meat weight (15 percent of total weight)

The rate of aquaculture development in the seven major areas ¹ listed in Table 4.2 is compared on the basis of increased production as percent per year, additional tons per year or additional grams per capita per year.

Seaweed production was excluded from this analysis because it is a major commodity only in China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines. Also since seaweed statistics are based on wet weight, large changes in landings result in small changes in the usable product.

Mollusc statistics are reported in FAO statistical reports on the basis of whole weight even though the edible meat represents only about 10–20 percent of the total weight. Recorded statistics including whole weight of molluscs were used as the basis for this study. However, Table 4.2 includes columns showing production changes on the basis of meat weight of molluscs.

Using meat weight instead of whole weight of molluscs made significant changes in the statistics for those countries with large mollusc production. On this basis Thailand's total production would change from an increase of 8.65 percent/year to a decrease of 5.31 percent/year. China's production figures would decrease from 8.99 to 3.87 percent/year whereas Japan's production figures would increase from 4.45 to 8.90 percent/year.

Production by the three commodity groups, finfish, molluscs and crustaceans listed in Tables 3.1 and 3.2 and summarized in Table 4.2 provide a better basis for analysis of trends in these seven areas. Finfish production increased in all countries except Thailand adding 26 040 tons in India but a decrease of 8 127 in Thailand.

Mollusc production on a whole weight basis increased in four countries but decreased in Japan in the Philippines. This resulted in an increase in supply which ranged from 167 672 t/year in China to a slight decrease in the Philippines. On a meat weight basis this resulted in an indicated increase of 25 150 t/year in China, 2 660 t/year in Thailand and smaller amounts in the other countries.

Crustacean culture expanded in all of the countries except Japan and production exceeded 1 000 t/year in three countries yielding significant increases in income.

The detailed discussion of production trends in the seven major aquaculture areas of Asia will not be repeated for other groups of countries. This was presented here as an example of the kind of analysis which will be needed to provide an adequate basis for understanding trends on a country and regional basis. It is obvious from this example that the basis for reporting production must be carefully selected to avoid the biases which make analysis difficult or lead to erroneous conclusions. Also it is important to develop a reliable set of conversion factors to permit valid comparisons among areas and commodities.

Several other Asian areas considered in this study began the 1975–1980 period with relatively low aquaculture production compared to the group discussed above. These areas can be separated into two groups on the basis of their rate of development as shown in Table 4.3.

The rate of aquaculture development in Asia does not appear to be related to the commodity group produced. Among the major aquaculture countries, the commodity groups contributing significantly to increased production included: finfish (in four areas), molluscs (in three areas), crustaceans (in five areas). Among the countries with lower production but good growth, the commodity groups contributing significantly to increased production included finfish (in four areas) and molluscs (in two areas).

Aquaculture is obviously well developed and growing throughout Asia as indicated by the encouraging expansion in 12 of the 15 areas listed above. Therefore it may be more productive to examine commonalities among the countries of this region rather than differences. This will be explored further in another section.

2.   Europe

Six countries in Europe have relatively large aquaculture production (over 40 000 t per year). Significant growth in production has occurred in four of them as shown in Table 4.4.

¹ “Area” is used in this section in a number of places rather than country in recognition of the fact that some statistical divisions do not have country status.

Production of molluscs increased significantly in France and Italy. In France oyster production was restored and expanded by introduction and culture of the Pacific or Japanese oyster Crassostrea gigas following the virtual demise of the European flat oyster Ostrea edulis and the Portuguese oyster Crassostrea angulata from diseases. Mussel culture increased somewhat in Spain and Italy. In contrast oyster and mussel culture decreased in the Netherlands because of disease problems and destruction of habitat.

Finfish culture increased in all countries except the Netherlands.

Among those European countries starting with a relatively small base of aquaculture production 10 of 17 had rates of development ranging from 5.0–38.0 percent/year. Decreases in production occurred only in Germany, D.R.

Finfish aquaculture predominated in this group of countries with rapid growth in production in most countries, low growth in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland and Yugoslavia, and decreases in Germany, D.R.

In contrast, mollusc culture which was a major activity in only three countries decreased in Germany, F.R. and in U.K. and increased slightly in Sweden.

In summary, aquaculture production has increased generally in Europe and there are well known reasons. Where aquaculture has decreased there are identifiable adverse factors such as diseases of osyters, destruction of habitat, deterioration of water quality competition for space and of course production economics and market consideration. These and other factors will be discussed in a later section.

3.   North America

Finfish production has expanded in Canada and USA from 1975 to 1980. In Canada this expansion has been largely in the culture of salmonids. In USA production of catfish, trout and salmon has increased significantly.

Mollusc production decreased in USA according to FAO records. However, US fishery statistics (1975 and 1980) and the US National Fishery Plan (1980) indicate an increase in oyster production by aquaculture from 90 900 t (shell weight) in 1975 to 107 750 t in 1980., Likewise production from clam farms increased from 6 000 t to 11 840 t (shell weight) during this period. Therefore, for purposes of this study, USA mollusc production was revised to 96 900 t in 1975 and 119 890 t in 1980 (Table 3.1).

The figures for production of crustaceans in USA were also corrected for purposes of this study, to reflect the rapid expansion of freshwater crawfish culture.

In total, North American production from aquaculture increased rapidly from 1975 to 1980 with significant growth in production of finfish, molluscs and crustaceans.

4.   Latin America and the Caribbean

Ten of the 13 countries producing finfish had rates of development above 5.0 percent per year. Two countries reported negative rates of development for finfish production.

Mollusc production was reported in only five countries. The reported rate of development in Cuba and Venezuela was positive whereas that in Chile and Mexico was negative. Production in Costa Rica was estimated to be stable during this period.

Ecuador produced shrimp only and this increased from 900 to 4 600 t during the five year period. Similar developments began in Panama and Peru during the period and production is increasing. Meanwhile some expansion of marine shrimp and freshwater prawn culture occured in Costa Rica.

In summary, finfish culture in the Latin American countries, starting from a small base has expanded slightly. Mollusc production has decreased, but crustacean farming has expanded greatly.

The expansion of extensive and now semi-intensive culture of shrimp in Ecuador has provided some employment and income to local residents even though this development has depended in a large measure on foreign investments. Expansion of industrailized shrimp culture to Panama, Peru and perhaps Brazil could provide similar benefits.

Although aquaculture has grown in several countries and has produced additional food, the increase on a per capita basis has been low and in some cases negative. The lack of an aquaculture tradition, inadequate government programmes and adverse economic factors may have retarded aquaculture development in Latin America.

5.   Africa

Finfish production in the African countries expanded from a low base in 1975 in at least 16 of the 25 countries listed in Table 3.1. In three countries, Tanzania, Uganda and Zaire, aquaculture production decreased. Only three countries reportedly produce molluscs: Sierra Leone with a substantial rate of increase and Senegal and Tunisia with stable but low production.

In general the production in most African countries in 1975 was so low that small increases or even a single new farm could greatly change the computed annual rate of development. Most countries (19) produce tilapia in ponds and although the level of technology is satisfactory, growth in terms of increased tons per year and grams per capita has been low and in three countries negative.

Aquaculture growth has varied among countries. The highest increase in terms of tons per year and grams per capita per year occurred in Ivory Coast, Liberia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. In these countries aquaculture contributed increasingly to the total food supply. In some countries aquaculture production decreased, usually because of civil unrest or political factors.

4.4  Methods for Analysis of Trends

The trends of aquaculture development in various regions and countries described in this section provide a general basis for making short or long-term forecasts of growth in production. The application of forecasting methods in many countries will require more detailed production statistics than those available during the present study.

The primary approach for making short-term predictions of growth in production is time-series analysis. The concept behind the analysis is not one of determining factors influencing growth but rather that growth has a momentum of its own-represented by what has happened in the past. In its simplest form, linear trend lines are fitted through the data and projections are based from projection of the lines. The procedures for this have developed into rather sophisticated methods (e.g., spectral analysis) but all rely on the precept that there are fundamental frequencies and volumes in the data through which projections can be made. The sophistication in the methodology relates to how many of the frequencies and volumes one wishes to capture and how much data are available on which to determine the patterns (see Anderson, 1971).

With few exceptions, there are not sufficient aquacultural data on which to make anything but the simplest analysis. The exceptions are Israel, China, Indonesia, and certain U.S. species (catfish). Even with these countries, however, the time series are not sufficiently long to do more than rather fundamental analysis. The obvious need is for adequate detailed product statistics provided on a timely basis.

The development of econometric methods for forecasting long-term growth is discussed in section 7 of this report.