The preceding analysis offers a discussion of expert views on factors influencing aquacultural growth, an inspection of the past trends in aquacultural growth, and a methodology by which factors can be related to growth. This section discusses a more structured econometric approach to estimating growth in general terms, but as current deficiencies in data make immediate implementation unlikely, detail is not presented.
In order to capture the essence of aquacultural growth with an adequate consideration of a variety of factors, generalizations have to be made about the system in which aquacultural growth arises. Since it is humans who are the principal motivators of the system, generalizations must be about their behaviour and how aquacultural growth arises from their behaviour. There are also constraints on human behaviour that must be recognized and generalized. We have chosen to define three types of participants within the system (producers, middlemen and consumers), and three major influences on the behaviour (physical environment, cultural, and governmental).
The general system (Figure 7.1) therefore works with the producers receiving incentives for production, potentially trading the product to the middleman or consumer, and the middleman either processing or transporting the product to the ultimate consumer. The physical influence implies the inputs necessary to produce a specified level of production as well as the variability in output. Likewise, physical characteristics can strongly influence the marketing and availability of alternative consumer goods. Cultural background not only influences how receptive the producer is to aquaculture but also how willing the consumer is to pay for the product. Finally, government institutions and policies can intervene anywhere from producer to consumer to encourage or discourage the flow.
The arrows in Figure 7.1 are drawn based on information from the previous sections and suggest whether the influence is directed toward the unit (e.g. ultimate consumer) or at the exchange between units. For example, new roads from government expenditures help the exchange whereas direct subsidies for investment are more related to the producing unit. The arrows are drawn based on discussions with experts.
FIGURE 7.1
- Producers
The growth of aquacultural production is, first of all, dependent on the willingness of individuals to invest their resources in specific aquacultural undertakings. This willingness is most often based on the perception that such an investment will bring rewards greater than are possible through alternative investment choices. The generality of this statement depends largely on the breadth of one's definition of investment and rewards. However, with broad definitions, investment can range from British Petroleum's research and building in the Ivory Coast to cage culture in the Philippines. Likewise, rewards can be defined from diversity of protein sources in an integrated farm to dollars from shrimp exporting in Ecuador.
In general, however, aquaculturists largely agree that “profit” is “the prime stimulant to fish production” (Grover et al., 1981). The producer, then, must be studied to determine the factors that influence profits from aquacultural production.
Below is a partial listing of factors raised in discussions with experts. It is not meant to be totally inclusive but to organize somewhat the various factors:
- Middlemen
Between the producer and the ultimate consumer may stand one or more of the middlemen, agents who assist in transforming production into consumption. These individuals, probably more than anyone else, work solely for profit. Buying the raw input, possibly processing it, incurring the costs of transportation and finally selling the product often requires absorbing risks because of price variation and product deterioration. The role can be dominated by the government using a marketing board, as seen in export products (e.g., cash crops). Often, in Africa, women take on the marketing tasks. In some instances, vertical integration may be possible wherein the producer subsumes the role of middleman.
The primary factors influencing the behaviour of middlemen along with examples include:
- Consumers
In general, there are three types of ultimate consumer: the subsistence farmer (and family), the domestic market and the export market. The factors influencing behaviour of consumers in each market are different and thus must be considered differently. Per capita income in the United States may be a critical factor in Ecuadorian shrimp production, whereas the availability of other fish sources may be most important for coastal African and South American production. A listing of important factors includes:
Any system which would encompass all of the above factors would be very complex and would require much more data than now available. By reducing the complexity of the system it may be possible to achieve a workable mathematical basis for predicting the systems behaviour. After some consideration, it was decided that no economic analysis system based on a mathematical model will be presented at this time. Rather the need for better data will once again be emphasized especially data of the nature of the factors just described.
