Impact and needs assessment involves assessing the nature and magnitude of a disaster, its impact on affected populations and on agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry, and the type and extent of emergency and immediate rehabilitation assistance that is required.
FAO mounts missions to carry out such assessments which aim to determine the needs for both food assistance and for emergency assistance in agriculture. For the former, missions are mounted by FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) in conjunction with the World Food Programme (WFP). These missions are responsible for identifying vulnerable groups and for food aid needs assessment. The impacts of disasters and emergency assistance requirements for the agriculture sector are assessed by specialists fielded through FAO's Special Relief Operations Service (TCOR)
Impact and Immediate Needs Assessment: What FAO does In recognising a disaster affecting food or agriculture and the possibility of an impending emergency, FAO rapidly follows up by an impact and needs assessment exercise. Types of assessment conducted by FAO are:
These assessments are quickly disseminated to the international community to enable timely and effective donor responses, and are used as a basis for FAO's own relief efforts. |
The assessment process is usually set in motion by the FAO Representative (FAOR)1, unless there has already been an FAO rapid assessment mission. The FAOR is responsible for the following tasks:
If there is a FSNIS or EWFIS (see Phase Two - Preparedness), the FAOR ensures that its reports and assessment of the situation reach ESCG/TCOR and comments on their reliability and coverage with regard to the disaster and its effects.
Depending on the scale of a disaster, the expertise available to the FAOR and the coverage and reliability of information generated by government technical services and/or FSNIS/EWFIS, external rapid assessment mission may be required. These may take one of the following forms:
Such missions are of short duration and need to reach conclusions quickly, based on information which may be partial, biased or even contradictory. Furthermore, their assessments must be carried out under the special constraints which often accompany emergencies. Their work is made more difficult such as severe disruption of the economy, civil society, and issues of logistics, access and security. Knowledge of the country and the background to the current emergency, experience and expertise in assessment work of this nature, and the use of as many kinds of evidence as possible, are therefore essential if missions are to produce findings which are accurate, timely and comprehensive.
Increasing emphasis is being given to combining (CFSAMs) and agricultural needs assessment missions. This helps to establish stronger linkages between assessment of disaster impacts on crops, food supplies, and needs for food assistance on the one hand, and assessment of urgent needs for supporting farming-based livelihoods in the wake of a disaster in order to reduce dependence on food assistance, on the other.
Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) are mounted for disaster assessment purposes in response to a government request for emergency food assistance or when one is anticipated. They are also undertaken when there is a need for an independent and critical assessment of local information on food supply and demand and the food security and nutrition, status of vulnerable groups. This includes situations where such information may be weak, incomplete or subject to political influence. Their reports are often key background documents for OCHA Inter-Agency Consolidated Appeals.
CFSAMs are designed to verify and assess the threat of imminent food problems resulting from a disaster, using the most recent and accurate information available and to assess the need for international food assistance to respond to this threat2. Their main objectives are to a) analyse the food supply and demand situation in the forthcoming marketing year at national level. The aim of this analysis is to estimate national food deficits and the assistance required to meet them; and b) to evaluate the food situation at the sub-national level.
The estimate of the food supply and demand situation in the forthcoming marketing year is based on National Food Balance Sheets (NFBSs), summarising:
Assessing the food situation at the sub-national level and issues related to the affected populations involves:
CFSAMs are normally planned to be in-country towards the end of the main cropping season when production can be estimated with some reliability. However the lead time for donor response to a mission report may necessitate a timing which is earlier than is technically optimal.
Missions are normally mounted jointly with WFP. Occasionally other international agencies may be represented, with additional objectives such as an assessment of implications of the disaster for the health of women and children. Their composition is flexible, but generally includes an agronomist and agricultural economist from ESCG, or occasionally from another FAO technical service or regional office. Relevant technical experts appropriate for the country situation are also included in the missions. For example, experts in animal health/production, rangelands, irrigation, or specific food or non-food crops are often utilised. TCDC experts are increasingly being utilised. Where information on current patterns of vulnerability is lacking or unsatisfactory, missions also include a household food security/nutrition expert from the Food and Nutrition Division (ESN).
Headquarters briefing, de-briefing and report clearance for CFSAMs are carried out jointly with WFP. Briefings include officers of various technical divisions, including ESN, ESAF, TCAR and the Investment Centre, who know the country or the region. Mission objectives and respective roles of agencies participating in the mission are clarified, background information is compiled with the help of the GIEWS country officer, and the work programme is determined.
Identification of priority objectives includes determination of which food commodities to examine, what level of geographical aggregation of estimates is required, and how much data the mission needs to collect itself.
Information assembled during the briefing should include most recent GIEWS and EWFIS reports, national food balance sheets, cereal balance data, FAO AGROSTAT time-series data, official population data, satellite images, fertiliser and seed production and trade data, crop calendars, country maps and lists of country contacts/sources. For certain countries other information may be needed, such as updates on the migratory pest situation, USAID Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) or United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) country reports, and NGO reports.
Once in-country, the mission consults with the FAOR. Interviews are arranged with representatives from relevant ministries, United Nations and donor agencies, NGOs and crop parastatals to solicit views and information. The FSNIS and/or EWFIS, if present, are key sources. Data and methods used in secondary sources and existing estimates are checked and critically appraised.
Though working towards an independent conclusion, missions do co-operate with local agricultural and statistical authorities in all stages of their assessment. In addition to the need to work alongside government, there is much to be said for maximising collaboration with donors and other partner agencies of the government in CFSAMs. Consideration might even be given to inviting donor representatives to join missions as observers.
Depending on specific mission objectives and the coverage and quality of secondary data, primary data collection activities may require joint field trips involving local representatives of FAO, the EWFIS and other participating agencies. Despite time constraints, teams should avoid road-side bias in these appraisals and should focus some interviews on the poorest households. Complementary interviews in nutritional rehabilitation centres/units could help understand better the constraints faced by at-risk households.
Following the field trips all data are compiled, checked and tabulated in-country and a draft report is being prepared. Debriefing may be provided for government officials and donor/NGO representatives upon request. These debriefings should not include quantitative estimates as these are subject to re-examination and finalization at Headquarters. On return to Headquarters, the mission is usually required to have prepared an edited summary of findings. A final report is produced as soon as possible. The team is debriefed by GIEWS, and within one week to ten days the CFSAM report is cleared by FAO and communicated to the government and to the international community.
In estimating production, CFSAMs concentrate on likely deviations from the most recent years and the factors responsible for such deviations rather than factors which are general longer-term constraints to production. They provide detailed explanations for significant changes in national or sub-national production compared with previous years. These explanations may provide part of the justification for changes in total or targeted food assistance requirements.
Estimates are made for all cereals, and for those non-cereal commodities which form a significant part of the national diet. They refer to crops likely to be consumed or held in stock during the coming marketing year, including short rains, recession and irrigated crops. Estimates should be disaggregated to the extent possible, by zone, crop, production sector and cropping season, and in each case by area (hectares) and yield (kilograms per hectare).
Sources of current season production data include official government estimates, for example from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and Ministry of Agriculture, and occasionally those from grain parastatals and large traders or commercial farmers. The mission's task is to assess these estimates critically. National-level time series data is available from FAO, and in some cases may require updating based on latest CSO estimates.
Planted Area
Yield
Yield is taken as actual whole-grain harvested yield, accounting for harvest losses. Post-harvest losses and seed and feed uses are calculated independently.
CFSAMs may be in a better position to generate independent yield estimates than they are for planted area estimates. Point estimates for yield per hectare can be rapidly generated during field inspections and used alongside evidence from remote sensing and agro-meteorological analysis. When official yield data is available, it must be carefully scrutinized. It may represent long-term average or target yields rather than estimates for the current season. Even if considered a reliable starting point for mission estimates, the data may need to be adjusted for reasons of definition, coverage, sampling procedure or in the light of yield-influencing events since the time of collection.
Where official data is weak or biased, additional evidence in the form of satellite data can be brought into the analysis. The mission can make use of Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images provided during the briefing at Headquarters (see Phase Three - Early Warning). These images can also be converted to a digital format. This makes it possible to manipulate them on a laptop computer, provided the necessary FAO software Image Display and Analysis software (IDA) is installed.
Similarly, missions can also make use of the FAO Crop Specific Soil Water Balance Model to undertake yield estimation based on rainfall data. This is possible if they have access to a computer with the necessary software (FAOINDEX plus utilities), base data, and satisfactory regression coefficients between Crop Water Satisfaction Index (CWSI) and yield. These coefficients have been established for the growing areas under consideration. The model should be used bearing in mind non-rainfall influences on yield.
Estimates for each zone, crop, sector or production system, must be fully explained in terms of underlying assumptions and yield-influencing factors. This is done by comparing the estimates with the results data from recent years. Methods of direct assessment of crops can include:
In combining a number of different yield estimates obtained during such inspections, the mission must calculate a yield point average (rather than a range) each site visited. These are then aggregated to the level of sub-national regions (or provinces) by calculating a weighted average. The weighted average is determined using an estimate of the proportion of the region's total cropped area represented by each locality as weighting factors.
How to Arrive at Production Estimates
Once point (rather than range) estimates are calculated for both the area and yield for each region, then multiplying them to give regional production estimates (which can be aggregated to a national level estimate) is a straightforward matter. The mission should be equipped with standard GIEWS spreadsheets which perform the necessary calculations for each region, sector, crop, season and year.
Aggregation becomes difficult when the current seasonal data is so uncertain that for a number of regions the mission has to report high and low scenarios for yield. Procedures are available, as described in the CFSAM Guidelines, for the use of probability functions to estimate a range for aggregate yield. Where possible, it is preferable to stick to point estimates accompanied by the necessary caveats concerning accuracy.
Crop Forecasting
CFSAMs often need to make forecasts of minor season or irrigated sector crops which have yet to be planted. These can be based only on extrapolation of time series data, using a suitable regression function separately for area planted and for per hectare yields. Extrapolations should however be modified in the light of unusual factors likely to affect area or yield which are already known, for example predicted input prices or the state of irrigation works and water supply.
In the course of assessing crops, the mission should also attempt to gather information on the state of pastures. Particular emphasis should be placed on cases where livelihoods are predominantly pastoralist or agro-pastoralist. A tendency to assume that a drought that devastates crops must have a similar effect on pastures should be avoided. Likewise one should not take for granted that pastures will always be in `normal' condition if crops are. The implications of this assessment on the household food security situation of different livestock-dependent groups should be considered.
Reports should be available via the Ministry of Agriculture's animal husbandry and/or veterinary departments. These can be checked during field visits through first-hand observation (expertise and familiarity with the country is a distinct advantage) and interviews with officials and livestock keepers. Analysis of remote sensing images, in particular NDVI, is of use in this regard. Abnormal seasonal progressions highlighted by NDVI in important grazing areas can signal exceptionally good or bad grazing conditions. However, ground verification is essential when evaluating effective pasture resources as a favourable NDVI may in reality represent areas of forage and/or shrubs which are heavily grazed or of low digestibility.
Opening Stocks
An estimation is made of all stocks of basic foods available for domestic use at the start of the new marketing year. These are calculated in whole grain equivalent. This estimation excludes supplies from crops to be included in the new year production estimates but includes those destined for seed or feed use. This entails estimating:
Closing Stocks
Closing stocks are all in-country stocks at the close of the marketing year. Private and on-farm stocks are estimated using the long-term average or trend, with possible adjustment for domestic production in countries which are not significant importers. Estimation of public closing stocks, on the other hand, requires a calculation of levels seen as desirable. Desirability is determined in light of such factors as government and food donor policies, time until next harvest, variability of domestic production, reliability and lead time for imports, stock-holding capacity and the need for prepositioning of stock where transport infrastructure is weak. Target FSR and SGR levels may already have been established, and can be critically assessed in discussions with government and donors.
Domestic utilization includes all uses of food commodities for human consumption, feed, seed and industry, plus post-harvest losses and closing stocks.
Food Consumption
Human food consumption is estimated as a function of de facto population and per capita consumption.
Population is estimated at mid-marketing year using official UN data which can be checked in-country with the CSO or Census Office, making the necessary exponential interpolations. These estimates are adjusted to reflect exceptional demographic change, for example through mortality or cross-border migration associated with disaster or war. Populations whose needs are likely to be covered by comprehensive refugee feeding programmes are excluded, as such needs are dealt with separately.
Per capita consumption is arrived at on the basis of "status quo estimates" (SQEs). These estimates represent each commodity's average or trend in per capita food use. This turns out to be the residual in the NFBS in previous years - the difference between total supply and total non-food utilization - once other parameters are known. Projected forward for the new marketing year, the SQEs can then be used to derive a measure of the total volume of imports required to maintain per capita food availability at historic levels. The SQE approach provides a measure of per capita food availability or dietary energy supplies (DES). This may be compared with FAO's Total Energy Requirement (TER). Both are expressed in per capita kilo-calories per day, but TER is based on basal metabolic rate energy needs for different age and gender groups within the population.
Feed Uses
Feed uses include consumption of all domestic and imported grains and where appropriate, non-cereal foods in the livestock sector. Depending on data availability, it may be possible to base estimates on what is known about production or imports of commodities. Estimates can be aggregated for exclusive feed use in the commercial sector, prices of feed and of livestock, changes in national herd size and in availability of pastures. In many countries it is necessary to rely on average or trend adjusted estimates.
Other Uses
Post-harvest losses refer to all food losses which occur after harvesting, including threshing and storage losses. Scarcity of data usually means use of constant percentage estimates, which are given by country and crop in the FAO Food Balance Sheets.
Seed use refers to domestically-produced seed for food crops. Imported seed is excluded from both seed use and import estimates.
Industrial use most often refers to brewing uses, where calorific content may be significantly altered. If estimates of calorific content of food commodities used for brewing already allow for this element, then such use can be treated as food use. Processed foods are not included in this category, but under food use.
This category includes food imports and exports financed exclusively by the recipient country. Emphasis is on cereals which are traded much more extensively than non-cereal foods, though the latter are considered if significant. Data sources include custom and excise offices, grain parastatals, WFP (for food aid imports) and Ministry of Trade/Commerce.
Unrecorded Cross-border Trade
Unrecorded cross-border trade is by definition difficult to estimate, but may be significant where there are extensive or unmonitored borders and large cross-border price differentials at market currency exchange rates. Estimates must be based on reports from a range of sources including: observations, (tactful) interviews in markets, at border posts, knowledge of price differentials and likely intra-annual variation.
Private Sector Trade
Estimates of other private trade are based on averages or trends for past years. These are modified in the light of interviews with key traders and possibly with some foreign trade delegations. Factors likely to affect private trade during the coming marketing year include exchange rates, domestic interest rates, inflation, border or world commodity prices, tariff levels, taxation, domestic price expectations (which may well be influenced by current domestic supply conditions), storage costs and capacity, credit guarantee conditions and quality controls. In some countries private traders may also take expectations of food aid imports into account when planning imports. This is considered further below.
Public Sector Commercial Trade
Public sector exports may be usual in some countries, in which case government export commitments or plans must be ascertained or estimated on the basis of the proportion of past years total exportable surplus.
Public sector imports may have been planned, in which case they can be entered into the NFBS. Closing stocks can then be calculated as the balancing element. If no planning figure is available and food assistance is envisaged, public sector commercial imports are determined on the basis of `usual marketing requirement' as explained below.
The imported food assistance requirement (IFAR) is defined as the minimum quantity of donor-assisted food imports required to preserve average national per capita food availability at historic levels. Clearly a balance needs to be determined between public sector commercial imports and food assistance, and as mentioned above a basis for arriving at a desirable level for the former has been established in the form of the usual marketing requirement (UMR). If the UMR has yet to be established a provisional one can be estimated during the course of a CFSAM. This can be compiled through discussions with Ministry of Finance or Central Bank officials and IMF/World Bank delegations.
The IFAR then becomes the residual in the NFBS for the new marketing year, calculated commodity by commodity. If rice is included, estimates are given in milled form using standard national norms for extraction rate (normally about 0.65). This aspect of the assessment is undertaken by FAO members of CFSAMs.
Some information on the impact of the disaster on food systems and affected groups is normally available from a range of government, NGO, donor and/or relief agency sources, including the FSNIS and/or EWFIS. The process involves:
This requires an understanding of existing food systems in the area visited and of the dependency of such systems on the crops assessed by the mission. Other contributions to household food security (income/food purchased or other food sources) should be identified. Such an assessment needs to take into account seasonal variations in both food availability and accessibility (at the farm or at the local market) and productive activities (including off-farm income) of different household members. It is also important to consider the time allocated to productive and other tasks as this is often a critical element of decision-making in crisis situations. Access to basic healthcare and a safe environment are also important determinants of the sustainability of livelihoods in such situations.
It is highly unlikely that CFSAMs will be able to conduct the detailed vulnerability surveys required for this exercise. However they must scrutinize any survey work which has already been carried out or can make recommendations on how it should be carried out. Every available opportunity should be used to interact with members of affected communities, including women and the elderly, as well as key informants ate district and village level. Such interaction is more effective if mission personnel have skills in basic participatory appraisal methods.
Pastoralists, agropastoralists, forest-dwellers and specific ethnic groups may be marginalized in regular development efforts. They are often poorly understood in emergencies and require a special focus. The need to assess pastures as well as crops has already been stated.
Review and evaluation of, and contribution to, these vulnerable group assessments is an important aspect of the work of both FAO and WFP contingents of CFSAMs fielded in emergency situations, and the representation on ESN missions is to be recommended in this regard. Missions should seek to interpret evidence - for example for livestock disease outbreaks, high offtake rates or low prices - with caution. This interpretation should benefit from interviews with pastoralists themselves and others familiar with the local livestock situation, with reference where necessary to information on transboundary pest and disease outbreaks affecting livestock. Similarly the state of forest resources and wild foods should be assessed with particular regard to those groups whose dependence on such resources for food and/or livelihoods is high.
Emergency food assistance protects populations from major short-term fluctuations in food consumption and is a crucial component in international response to disasters. Needs are determined for each target group requiring assistance and each commodity on the basis of the number of people in the group, the period for which assistance is required, and the daily ration. If assistance is to extend beyond the end of the marketing year, needs assessments take into account the requisite end of year operating stock.
Provisional planning figures for target populations are established through decisions about which of the groups defined in the vulnerability surveys described earlier are in need of emergency food assistance, and the population estimates for each group. At the time of distribution these provisional figures are subject to a screening exercise to provide actual planning figures, which are themselves revised throughout the lifetime of the programme.
Screening criteria are established just prior to the start of the emergency intervention, normally with reference to the categories established during a vulnerability survey, in order to identify actual beneficiaries. These two exercises may in some cases be combined. If in-country at this time, CFSAMs evaluate screening criteria. These criteria are assessed for their effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility for identifying households experiencing acute food insecurity. Safeguards used by the local implementing agency to combat multiple registration and selection bias are scrutinized. Finally, Screening criteria are evaluated for their acceptability to target populations. Interviews with screened and unscreened households, local officials, community representatives and representatives from implementing agencies can be used for this purpose.
Actual beneficiary numbers can also be assessed if interventions are already under way. These numbers can be compared with the provisional planning figure established earlier to judge the extent to which interventions actually specifically benefit those who are experiencing acute and exceptional food insecurity. It may be determined that screening criteria are impractical, or that the programme suffers from mismanagement, multiple registration or logistical constraints.
CFSAMs need to consider the relative merits of addressing acute food insecurity through various forms of in-kind food provision or non-food transfers.
In-kind food assistance is most appropriate where:
It is least appropriate where:
Forms of transfer other than free food distribution may include:
These latter forms of transfer may be partly financed from the proceeds of food assistance for market sales.
Actual or proposed ration rates for emergency food assistance need to be assessed in relation to:
The starting date should be as close as possible to the onset of the period of acute food insecurity. It should take into account the availability of harvests (including minor season crops), household food stocks and the need to intervene before serious nutritional consequences of the disaster ensue because households are forced to dispose of productive assets. If the lead time for imported food is likely to be too long to meet this condition and there is no ongoing pipeline, consideration must be given to negotiating the use of in-country stocks or commercial imports during the intervening period.
The end date is normally the time of the next main harvest. Beneficiaries should be aware, as early as possible, of the planned programme end date. For refugees and the internally displaced, the start date depends on an assessment of beneficiaries' resources and local food markets. Planning an end date is likely to be difficult, and the best assumption may be that the programme will extend beyond the end of the marketing year unless there is good reason to suppose otherwise.
Consideration of possible logistic constraints is necessary whenever there is an exceptional IFAR or a major targeted assistance programme. If these threaten timely delivery or distribution of the required assistance, there may be a need for formulation of urgent appeals for donor-financed logistical support. Logistic constraints on imports may arise from inadequate port monitoring, clearance, off-loading and handling (including storage and bagging) facilities wherever shipments are to be landed, cross-border monitoring, clearance, and capacity for trans-shipment by road, rail or waterway. Much depends on import scheduling and shipment size.
Internal transport, storage and handling capacities need to be assessed in relation to total volumes and peak flows throughout the programme. These include road, rail or waterway networks and vehicles, the capacity and location of storage up to distribution point (including extended delivery points if these have been identified), and distribution equipment. Public, private and relief sector capacities must be included and due allowance made for regular non-programme operations.
Depending on the country's history, and its level of preparedness for disasters, the institutional mechanisms may already be in place for an emergency programme. These include coordination structures, procedures, clearly defined roles for participating agencies, a framework for identifying beneficiaries, a network of distribution agencies, and a distribution monitoring system linked to a commodity tracking system. CFSAMs may further need to assess the location of distribution sites in relation to that of target groups, and the frequency and packaging of distribution and make appropriate recommendations to government and potential donors.
Though their requirements for imported and emergency food assistance are calculated independently, FAO and WFP contingents of CFSAMs need to work very closely to ensure that their definitions and estimates for these categories are compatible. The two are linked by their definitions of food assistance.
FAO defines food assistance by source. Food assistance is either imported through international imports and triangular transactions involving neighbouring countries or procured locally (i. e. in-country). Financing of these sources normally involves donors, but may be partly or wholly undertaken by the government.
WFP defines its food assistance by use. Food assistance may be targeted for specific food-insecure groups, comprising emergency food assistance; `project' food assistance - food assistance for market sales (`programme' food assistance), and food assistance for public stocks (e. g. buffer stocks, SGRs, FSRs).
CFSAMs propose the combination of international imports, triangular transactions and local purchases needed to fulfil emergency food assistance requirements. They determine how much food can be procured locally and how much must be imported to meet the emergency needs of beneficiaries. They also assess the proportion of the emergency food assistance requirement that is already covered by donor pledges (new or carried over from the previous marketing year), and the status of such pledges - i. e. whether in transit, stocked in-country or already distributed.
Triangular transactions and donor-financed local procurement may be appropriate where the NFBS shows a national food surplus or exceptional local surpluses due to a bumper crop. Triangular transactions involve the donor purchasing surpluses in one country for use as food assistance in a neighbouring country. Local procurement is a similar operation applied to surplus and deficit regions or groups within a single country. The potential advantages of this mode of food assistance lie in the possibility of procurement at lower than world market prices, provision of food commodities suited to local dietary habits, and providing farmers with an opportunity to dispose of an exceptional surplus at a guaranteed price.
Such transactions should not disrupt private trade. The surplus must be an exceptional one resulting in lower than average prices in a region with poor trade links, infrastructure and communications. The transactions should cease once normal seasonal price levels are restored or when it is cheaper to procure internationally. For this reason procurement by such means may be less dependable than use of international markets.
Targeted `project' food assistance consists of longer term interventions to assist specific population groups who are chronically food insecure by means of development projects involving food provision. When fielded jointly with WFP, CFSAMs examine planned projects, assessing their coverage, the appropriateness of rations to be used and their implications for imported food resources.
Food assistance for market sales is often termed `programme' food assistance. It includes commodity imports which a donor provides, finances, or subsidizes on grant or soft loan terms. It has substantial advantages in terms of low management costs, the potential to prevent major food price explosions resulting from a large national or local deficit, and the generation of counterpart funds which can be used (by donor-recipient agreement) to cover the costs of non-food aspects of assistance for poor populations. Care is taken to ensure that adequate handling and storage capacities exist. Market disruption is must be minimized through regular price monitoring in individual markets and through the careful choice of markets for sales of food commodities.
Safety and Quality in Food Aid and Food Stocks
An important issue for CFSAMs is that of food safety and quality control with respect both to existing in-country food stocks and to food assistance that might be required. Food aid shipments do not always conform to country legislation (where this exists) or international standards with regard to:
In an emergency, a country may not have the resources or capability to confirm the quality and safety of local food stocks or of food being provided internationally as relief. Necessary arrangements must be in place which ensure that foods are checked for quality. If existing capabilities are inadequate, there is a case for technical assistance in this area as part of the relief effort.
Improving Diets and Understanding
In emergency situations the quality of the diet depends mainly on the quality of distributed rations. Most households face constraints in both amounts and variety of food, leading to nutritionally poor diets. This is exacerbated by increased health risks associated with constraints on health care, sanitation and clean water, and by time constraints leading to reduced levels of care for nutritionally vulnerable household members.
Nutrition education components are systematically incorporated at all stages of the emergency-to-rehabilitation continuum while focusing on sustainability. This is particularly true in emergency food assistance projects to improve the utilization of food rations. This is done to help beneficiaries learn to prepare unfamiliar foods often found in general rations, or to prepare food in a more time or cost effective manner. Nutrition education also has an important role to play in the promotion of breast-feeding and the preparation of appropriate weaning foods in emergency situations.
Missions are mounted by TCOR to assess needs for agricultural relief. TCOR is the spearhead of FAO's emergency response system for non-food assistance. Its role is to meet the emergency requirements of affected populations for technical assistance and agricultural inputs in the fields of agriculture, livestock production and health, forestry and fisheries. Its goal is to facilitate a rapid return to agricultural production and development. This assistance is provided in the wake of a disaster and with the backing of FAO technical divisions. The decision to mount a mission is based upon information made available from sources such as OCHA, the government of the affected country as well as EMPRES. Their terms of reference will be to:
The first two tasks are related to the assessment carried out by CFSAMs. It is recommended that agricultural and food-related interventions be co-ordinated. This will result in local capacities being strengthened from the start of an emergency. If a CFSAM has already been mounted, its report provides a starting point for a TCOR mission to carry out a more detailed analysis of impact on productive activities in the immediate future, and particularly with regard to the next agricultural season.
In some cases, emergency food assistance is already underway at the time a TCOR assessment mission is fielded, and a donor for emergency agricultural rehabilitation has already been identified and has indicated the level of funding to be made available.
A main feature of the TCOR strategy is to appoint an `Emergency Coordinator' as early as possible following the declaration of an emergency. This Coordinator is normally an international consultant with experience both of the disaster-stricken area and of TCOR operations in general. This Coordinator is TCOR's focal point in all stages of the emergency/relief cycle, may be operational at the time of the impact/needs assessment, and manages the overall FAO emergency programme in the region.
While CFSAMs concentrate on assessing disaster impacts on food security and nutrition during the current year, TCOR assessment missions are particularly concerned with factors affecting the next season's agricultural activities, including horticulture and the livestock sector. Their analysis requires much of the same basic information as CFSAMs, but focuses in particular on:
This task is approached by compiling a set of estimates for the pre- and post-disaster situation for each disaster-affected area which includes: numbers of people; numbers of farming households; main crops; aggregate crop area, yields and production; livestock numbers by type; and other affected activities. A set of elementary `farm models' is then established based on main farming and associated livelihood systems in each affected area.
Pastoralist and agropastoralists may be amongst the groups whose food security has been affected by a disaster, and these aspects would be part of a CFSAM, if one has been fielded. TCOR assessments provide follow-up with activities aimed at restoring livestock productivity for animal owners. The rapid assessment of emergencies in livestock production systems poses particular problems for TCOR missions. This is due to the tendency for herds to be mobile and situated in remote regions with poor infrastructure, and the inherent difficulties associated with determining herd sizes and ownership. This section outlines the most important aspects to be considered:
Disaster Effects on Livestock
The effects of disaster on livestock production systems need to be carefully evaluated. Their importance in coping mechanisms, as a form of savings or as a component of social solidarity systems makes them central to household food security. Husbandry of small stock is particularly important, as it allows greater flexibility and is often a responsibility of women.
Pasture Conditions
Pasture conditions and feed availability are important matters for assessment. The natural pasture should be described, using existing studies where possible, along with any upgrading measures that may have been or might be undertaken. Pasture degradation as a direct result of disasters should be assessed along with the potential for natural regeneration. This should be done for drought, volcanic eruption, or as a result of abnormal herd concentrations in the wake of a disaster. The effect of this degradation on different livestock species must also be evaluated. The availability of supplementary feed/fodder in the area, such as crop residues or grain not required for human consumption should be assessed.
Livestock Diseases
A direct or indirect effect of a disaster may be a marked increase in livestock disease rates. This may be due to overcrowding, herding to new areas, unusual association with other herds, or the collapse of veterinary services. This effect may be exacerbated by the weak condition of animals. Among the diseases to consider under these conditions are:
The Role of Livestock
In developing `farm models' an important dimension is the degree and nature of household dependency on livestock in normal circumstances, with categories such as the following:
These categories might be overlaid with others relating to the mix of livestock types, an important factor in resilience to drought and regeneration rates. For example, in some areas non-pastoralist livelihoods depend strongly on ownership of a camel, a horse or a pair of oxen for traction. Another important factor may be the extent to which pastoralist/agropastoralist systems involve transhumant grazing systems.
Estimating Numbers
To quantify these effects for each of the `farm models' it is necessary to arrive at an estimate for numbers of households and average household ownership of livestock pre- and post-disaster. This in turn can be used as a basis for estimating total pre- and post-disaster numbers of different types of livestock. Pre-disaster herd offtake rates, if available data exist, provide a means of further estimating the impact on livestock production. In making these estimates, existing data on the livestock sector should be carefully examined and appropriate participatory appraisal techniques which take account of the sensitivities often encountered in asking pastoralists direct questions about livestock ownership should be employed.
Based on the analysis described above, TCOR assessment missions progress to an assessment of urgent non-food needs in agriculture. This involves determination of:
Identifying priority types of assistance requires a careful comparison of needs with both the types of commodities and the funding likely to be available locally and internationally. Resources are unlikely to be made available to meet all the input needs of all those affected, and specifications must concentrate on those that together constitute a package which is both necessary and sufficient for short-term recovery of livelihoods and food production.
Seeds
Seeds (in the broad sense, i. e. including tubers) are the most frequently needed form of input for emergency assistance for crop production after a disaster. When a disaster results in acute food insecurity, the presence and timing of relief food provisions are critical determinants of people's ability to retain seed. Assessment missions therefore need to examine the record of emergency food aid distribution as part of their appraisal for the need for seed.
Seed needs must be detailed with respect to crop, variety, area of cultivatable land, application rates, amount per farming household and total amount. This must be accompanied by information on specific location including altitude, planting times, length of growing season, rainfall, temperature regime, prevalent pests, diseases, and bagging and storage requirements. Information on the capacity of local seed suppliers must be provided, including location and registration details as a supplier of certified or quality declared seed (i. e. declaration and approval by the national seed quality control organization).
Fertilisers
Fertilisers can either be included as an element in an agricultural relief package involving seeds and/or other inputs, or can be the main project focus. In either case, the objective is to promote a rapid return to agricultural productivity and food security, to pre-disaster levels by boosting crop yields.
Being bulky compared with other inputs, fertilisers can be more logistically demanding and may be subject to theft or damage in transit if not carefully handled. Their application also needs care to ensure that they are productively used. This can be done for instance through complementary erosion control and nutrient recycling measures. These measures can be encouraged through building appropriate extension activities into the distribution programme.
If seed is freely provided, thought needs to be given to the transition to normal sale conditions in the post-emergency phase and the effect this might have on fertiliser use and plant nutrition systems. Alternatively, fertilisers can be sold to farmers in the affected area. The counterpart fund thus generated can be used for complementary support (e. g. purchase of seeds and implements, or improvement of agricultural infrastructure) or as a revolving fund for further fertiliser procurement. Prices need to be determined with regard to price elasticities of demand, prevailing market prices and gross margins, the potential for farmers to repay loans and the stage reached in a transition to normal market conditions. The possibility of extending loans to the most impoverished for fertiliser purchases should be examined.
Thus where fertilisers are involved, project design needs to include an appropriate level of support for:
The experience of TCOR projects suggests that in circumstances where there is access to land and where crop water requirements are likely to be met, the provision of fertiliser in disaster affected areas can compare very favourably with that of emergency food assistance in terms of:
Agricultural Tools and Equipment
The benefits of providing seeds, fertilizers and other agricultural inputs can amount to little unless farmers have the necessary tools. Farm hand tools in normal use often last for only two agricultural seasons. Disaster-affected farming communities in which farmers may have no means to buy tools and may have had to flee their homes are likely to require tools as part of agricultural relief provision.
Hand tools such as hoes, wheelbarrows, shovels and knapsack sprayers, are affordable to donors, and are highly mobile. Animal drawn equipment such as ploughs and carts, and spare parts for these, should also be considered as part of any operation involving the supply of draft animals (as described below).
Pesticides
If pesticides are to be used, choice of product must be made in the light of application methods, efficacy, risk of resistance in the target organism, and above all safety. (See Phase Five - Relief) AGPP is available to advise on any aspect of pesticide procurement and use.
Other Agricultural Inputs
Needs for other inputs should be appraised with regard to types and levels of provision necessary to relieve constraints to the reinstatement of agricultural livelihoods and food security. These, like other inputs, may be considered for provision free or at subsidized rates.
Nutritional Aspects of Agricultural Input Provision
The selection of agricultural inputs for provision through emergency and post-emergency TCOR projects needs to take due account of nutritional implications and the opportunities for improving nutritional status for beneficiary groups.
The choice of crops for which inputs are provided is likely to affect dietary composition. Nutritional as well as agricultural criteria should therefore guide the selection process, as a means of balancing dietary shortages common under emergency conditions and of promoting nutritional improvements in customary diets. The role of pulses and vegetables in this regard should not be overlooked.
Promotion of close collaboration between primary health, community and agricultural extension workers can enable the integration of advice and education on production, processing, preservation and preparation of nutritionally balanced foods.
Veterinary Interventions
The supply of veterinary inputs and provision of animal health services must be considered among the most prominent operations in emergency assistance for livestock production systems. The major advantages is their almost universal applicability. They provide immediate impact on degraded stock and interventions can be tailored to suit needs on the one hand and available resources on the other.
However, economic assessments must precede the implementation of mass prophylactic campaigns such as vaccinations and preventative anti-parasitic treatment. Cost-benefit ratios and alternative strategies must be taken into account. Interventions potentially able to increase productivity or reduce livestock deaths must be continually available.
In order to be effective, many vaccinations require two or more properly sequenced injections (rinderpest vaccination is the exception); one-off de-worming is not cost-effective but must be repeated according to type(s) of parasite and agro-climatic factors. Therefore serious consideration must be given to the continuing availability and affordability of veterinary remedies and the probability of livestock technicians or veterinarians being available and physically able to deliver inputs in a timely manner. Such availability often depends on at least minimal funds for transportation and field allowances. The application of slow-release anti-parasitic (for ecto- and endoparasites), together with the use of thermo-stable vaccines may go a long way to solving this problem. Governments often are not able to provide such operational funds, even in normal times. Serious action needs to be taken in terms of downsizing and the elimination of wastage and wasteful practices. Once all avenues have been explored, cost recovery or full commercialisation can be considered.
Live Animals for Restocking
Provision of live animals may be considered where people with no alternative income sources are dependent on herds which have been decimated or depleted to a level which does not allow a reasonable rate of herd recovery. Estimating numbers of animals required per family can be difficult. One approach is to use existing data and information from interviews with prospective beneficiaries and others on pre-disaster fluctuations in herds to determine what minimum sustainable herd size supports a family. This can be compared with numbers of livestock which have survived the disaster, though it is often difficult to determine the latter on an individual basis.
Where many households have lost their draft animals, provision of livestock and ploughs where necessary may be a prerequisite for a return to pre-disaster levels of cultivation. Likewise there may be a need to provide animals such as camels, donkeys or mules where these are a vital means of transport and mobility. In general, provision of livestock will only occur once the situation in a country/area is relatively stabilised.
A more easily administered alternative to free re-stocking might be the establishment of credit facilities to enable smallholders and pastoralists in target areas to purchase new stock. Small ruminants (sheep and goats), poultry, pigs and "micro" species have short reproductive cycles and can repopulate to pre-disaster levels within two years or less under favourable climatic conditions. Comprehensive restocking with small ruminants, particularly following two or more consecutive seasons of good rainfall, does not generally make sense. Restocking in the face of continuing drought makes even less sense. Consideration needs to be given to different categories of livestock owners. Owners of large flocks/herds, have greater resiliency and animal numbers recover faster. Impoverished livestock owners with numbers of animals below a reproductively viable critical mass will sink further and further into poverty. This vulnerable group needs to be identified and targeted for assistance.
Special care must be exercised in advocating restocking in areas where human populations have become concentrated as a result of disaster. Care must be taken in the vicinity of settlements for refugees or the displaced, where sufficient grazing may not be available for both existing and new stock on a sustainable basis. Restocking programmes should always be subject to environmental assessments. These assessments should balance the need for stock against the danger of local overgrazing, allowing for the possibility that animals can be grazed further afield as required.
Appropriate specialist veterinary advice must always be sought in planning restocking programmes in order to ensure that adequate steps are taken to minimise the risk of disease, especially infectious epidemic or transboundary animal diseases.
Restocking programmes involving livestock imports are often inappropriate as they are subject to disease, logistic, feeding and a host of other problems, and on a large scale are expensive and often not successful. The exception is poultry restocking projects, implemented with associated training. Projects involving in-country redistribution, for example of small ruminants and oxen, have been successful (e. g. Azerbaijan, Eritrea and Somalia), and FAO has considerable expertise in this regard.
Supplementary Feeding
Consideration can be given to supplying supplementary feeds, though the cost-effectiveness of this in extensive grazing systems needs to be carefully assessed (see Phase One - Prevention). This is more easily justified for breeding and draft animals than for whole herds. International transport of emergency animal feeds is not supported by FAO in principle though there may be a case for importing trace minerals. In extensive systems, the upgrading or rehabilitation of degraded rangelands, for example through oversowing with legumes or certain perennial grasses, might be an option in limited patches of rangeland where soil and moisture conditions are favourable.
Water Supplies
Water points may need to be provided in an emergency where forage resources are available but herd access to them is restricted by lack of water. Permanent points raise issues of maintenance, and may soon result in localized denuding of rangelands. Temporary or mobile points, which may be provided through water tankers or seasonal ponds, may be a better option depending on circumstances. Farmers/pastoralists participation in project design is essential to ensure adequate understanding on both sides of the objectives and limitations.
Assisted Marketing and Slaughtering Schemes
When rangeland resources are under severe pressure and large numbers of livestock are threatened with starvation, the best option may be an assisted marketing scheme. This involves the provision of a guaranteed market for livestock at floor prices set at a level more or less in line with seasonal trends. The main objective is to help break the cycle of rapidly falling livestock-for-food terms of trade. This removes the dependence of the remaining herd on livestock sales. It is most effective when combined with measures to contain food prices such as free food distribution or food-for-work.
Where grazing pressure is a primary constraint to rangeland productivity, assisted destocking will also help ease this pressure and aid rangeland recovery. Assistance may be required for slaughter and refrigeration and/or canning facilities. Existing facilities are likely to be overstretched, especially if the scheme is successful. Mobile abattoirs have the distinct advantage of accessibility for pastoralists but must be accompanied by adequate means for cold storage, canning or curing and transport capacity. The canned meat might also find a place in local food assistance projects. This could come at a significantly lower cost than equivalent commodity imports if the necessary funding links can be made.
Emergency assistance may be required to restore the production and livelihoods of artisanal fishermen affected by natural disasters (storms or tidal waves) or complex emergencies in which they have lost boats and equipment. Initial assessment is needed of:
This provides a basis for determining priorities in terms of target groups and locations, types of equipment and other assistance to restore production and fishing livelihoods to a level which markets can support.
Boats for artisanal fisheries are normally made from locally available materials, often by fisherfolk themselves. When there is a request for assistance for boat construction or repair local capacities and the constraints which can feasibly be addressed through assistance should be taken into account (materials, credit, tools etc). Other fishing equipment which might be considered for provision are items less likely to be available locally such as outboard motors, nylon netting, twine, and rope, floats, weights, hooks, stainless steel wire etc. Actual fabrication and repair of nets and lines can normally best be left to the beneficiaries themselves.
The initial TCOR needs assessment mission is necessarily a rapid exercise. It focuses on immediate needs for short-term agricultural relief. Likewise the project reports concentrate on the extent to which those needs have been met. Together, however, they should provide an assessment of:
From the beginning, the initial assessment helps to define the role of emergency agricultural relief within the context of what should be a coordinated sequence of responses. The coordinated response is designed to address all the adverse consequences of a disaster both in the short and long term. This should lead to the incorporation of elements which strengthen civil society and local capacities into aspects of the emergency project design (such as modes of delivery and distribution, and management) rather than bypass or `decapitate' them.
The first assessment also provides a sound basis for making such a coordinated sequence explicit in the formulation of both emergency and longer-term responses. It facilitates both a later, more detailed longer-term rehabilitation needs assessment exercise and the corresponding formulation work. This should make the whole sequence more attractive to donors and will bring about a more effective overall response. TCOR projects can thus function as stepping-stones to rehabilitation and recovery.
Prospects for Pastoralists
Disasters tend to dislocate pastoralist livelihoods. In many instances, a long-term decline in viability begs the question: is a return to the pre-disaster situation feasible or desirable relative to other options that may be available? It may be that the disaster has accelerated a process of adaptation that was already underway (see also Phase One - Prevention). The challenge may be to ensure that the adaptation becomes a positive one which results in a more secure form of livelihood. On the other hand, short-term interventions may establish a pattern which leads or even coerces pastoralists into quite different, sedentary, crop-based livelihoods for which they are ill-fitted. This occurs frequently on marginal lands where their level of risk is increased rather than reduced.
TCOR needs assessment missions conclude with the preparation of project profiles. The profiles prepared in the field or immediately on return to Headquarters, are designed for fund mobilization. They are included in an OCHA Consolidated Appeal or sent to potential donors. Preparation of a full project document is undertaken only after a donor has indicated an intention to fund the project (see Phase Five - Relief).
In the case of complex, major or protracted emergencies OCHA fields Inter-Agency Assessment Missions to evaluate the impact of the disaster on all sectors of the affected country including agriculture. FAO participants in the Inter-Agency Missions may be fielded from Headquarters, regional, sub-regional or country offices and involve the collaboration of GIEWS, TCOR and/or other technical divisions as appropriate. Participation arranged by GIEWS may take the same form and be conducted in the same way as a CFSAM.
The mission leads to the formulation of an Inter-Agency Consolidated Appeal. Aspects of the Appeal related to food supply and demand and food assistance are prepared by GIEWS. Those concerning agricultural inputs are prepared by TCOR in collaboration with the FAOR and Headquarters technical divisions, the latter having responsibility for their technical clearance.
TCOR is the focal point for, FAO's contribution to consolidated appeals on agriculture relief needs for submission to OCHA.
FAO Guidelines and Reference Manuals
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1 Full procedures are set out in Field Programme Circular 2/96, Guidelines in Cases of Emergencies Originating from Natural or Manmade Disasters Affecting the Food and Agriculture Sectors, 27 August 1996.
2 In the CILSS member states, more limited missions are mounted which focus largely on production aspects and are termed Crop Assessment Missions.
