FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - ARMENIA*(11 September)
Persistent dry conditions since June, hot temperatures and hot and dry winds have caused extensive crop damage. A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in August found that the outlook for crops had seriously deteriorated. Crops in the Ararat valley, which had access to irrigation water, have developed satisfactorily but elsewhere crops and pastures have been severely affected by drought, particularly in the northeast and in all upland areas. Early indications are that the aggregate 2000 cereal harvest will be about 216 000 tonnes, three quarters of normal, while that of potatoes, a major staple in upland rural areas, could be reduced by even more.
Fodder crops and natural pastures for livestock have also been seriously affected and substantial destocking will be necessary. Income from the sale/barter of livestock products accounts for an important share of rural household budgets and is crucially important if rural households have to revert to the market to cover a part of their needs. Drought affected farmers are being hit both by reduced agricultural output for auto consumption and/or marketing and the declining prices for livestock products.
There is still food available in the market. The price of wheat in urban markets, largely supplied from imports, has not changed significantly but in rural markets prices of wheat, fodder crops and potatoes are rising and pronounced increases are expected towards the end of the year when rural households run out of supplies from this year's harvest. Meat prices, by contrast, are falling. Rural households, not in receipt of regular remittances from abroad, are likely to face food shortages. In urban areas also, poor households are likely to experience hardship. Despite financial stability and economic growth, a large proportion of the population remains effectively under or unemployed and poor.
Because of the drought, cereal import requirements, including food aid, in 2000/01 will increase sharply. This is due in part to the lower cereal production. In addition, although the harvest of potatoes will continue until later this year, early indications are that the harvest could be very poor indeed. If the country is to reserve seed potatoes from this year's harvest, it will be necessary to replace a proportion of human consumption of potatoes with imported wheat.
In 2000/01 the domestic cereal requirement is estimated at 731 000 tonnes, including 481 000 tonnes for human consumption. This represents 192 kg per caput, higher than usual in view of reduced availability of potatoes and most other domestically produced foodstuffs. Cereal imports in 2000/01 are estimated at 515 000 tonnes, including 458 000 tonnes of wheat. Commercial cereal imports amounted to an estimated 404 000 tonnes in 1999/2000 and are estimated to be 369 000 tonnes in the current year, reflecting growing debt and severe budget constraints. Food aid needs are estimated at 146 000 tonnes and include 109 000 tonnes of wheat for human consumption and 37 000 tonnes of barley to enable 60 000 cattle in the worst affected area to be kept alive during the winter and released into spring grazing in reasonable condition for milk production. Against the food aid requirement, 70 000 tonnes have been pledged to date leaving an uncovered requirement of 76 000 tonnes.
Income distribution is very uneven and living conditions precarious for many households. Purchasing power remains low and at times insufficient to cover the cost of the minimum consumption basket. In total, some 170 000 vulnerable people will be covered by WFP food assistance, including some 110 000 refugees and vulnerable persons being provided with relief food aid, while 60 000 will be reached through community based food-for-work activities, supporting economic and social development. The programme is planned for three years and will be reviewed annually. The Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO 6120.01) is expiring on 30 June 2001. An emergency operation is under consideration to assist victims of a drought which has plagued the region and affected mainly the rural population of Armenia.
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