FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - CHINA (26 September)
In the first week of September, Typhoon Maria killed 29 people and caused estimated damages of U S $100 million in Guangdong and Hunan provinces and damaged or destroyed an estimated 40 000 hectares of crops. These two provinces are important rice producers and together normally produce some 21 percent of national rice production. The weather situation in the second dekad of September, however, was generally favourable across most of the country, with warm dry weather aiding maturation and harvesting of summer crops and planting of early winter crops. Harvesting of early rice, first of the three rice crops grown, is complete with production estimated at 37.5 million tonnes of paddy; some 8 percent below last year and the lowest level since the 1980s. In addition, official reports indicate that the intermediate rice crop, affected by drought in parts, will also register a decline compared to last year, while late rice has been affected by typhoon and storm activity, particularly in Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. Overall paddy production in 2000/2001, therefore, is currently forecast at around 186 million tonnes, some 12 million tonnes below 1999/2000. The flood damage comes on top of serious drought earlier which affected summer grain production, particularly in important producing areas in the north. The estimate for 2000 wheat production has been revised down further to 101 million tonnes, compared to 103 million tonnes earlier and 111 million tonnes in June. At this level, production would be some 10 percent lower than average for the last five years and almost 13 million tonnes or 11 percent lower than 1999. In addition, due to adverse dry conditions and to some extent falling acreage, maize production is expected to fall to its lowest level in 6 years to around 103 million tonnes, some 15 percent below average and 25 million tonnes below last year. Lower production will likely result in higher domestic market prices, increase demand for imports and reduce exports. Official reports indicate that this year's drought has been the worst in 20 years, damaging around 31 million hectares of summer and autumn crops.
Total grain production, including roots and tubers, is now forecast at 402 million tonnes this year, 7.45 million tonnes lower than forecast earlier and around 51 million tonnes lower than last year. In addition to weather disturbances, the decline in grain output this year is partly attributed to the reduction in procurement prices announced by the Government earlier in order to reduce large inventories. However there are indications that the Government will review procurement prices.
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