Sowing of the 2001 A season crops is about to start. However, field operations are being delayed by lack of precipitation in the past months. Rains are urgently needed to avoid reductions in plantings. The area planted could also be negatively affected by shortages of seeds following the reduced harvests of the past two seasons. The Government, with support of international agencies and NGOs, is distributing seeds in the affected areas.
Food production of the 2000 B season was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 1.7 million tonnes, 3 percent below both last year and the past five-year average. The output of pulses declined by 20 percent and that of cereals by 6 percent, but those of root and tubers remained virtually unchanged from 1999. Areas most affected by the dry weather were the northern provinces of Kirundo and Muyinga, and the Moso region.
The food supply situation is very tight in these areas. In Kirundo province alone, it is estimated that 350 000 persons face food shortages. There is also serious concern for the food situation of large numbers of displaced persons, who remain in camps, where access to land is restricted. WFP plans to assist approximately 700 000 displaced, drought-affected and most vulnerable people until the end of the year. However, insecurity continues to hamper food distributions.
Prospects for 2000 main season cereal and pulse crops to be harvested from November are bleak, due mainly to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of farmers following escalation of the war with neighbouring Ethiopia in May/June 2000. The total area sown by end-July was less than 40 percent of normal due to displacement, loss of basic tools and destruction of basic infrastructure. Despite improved rains from the second-half of July, late and below-normal rains at the beginning of the season have also delayed planting and early establishment of crops. Gash Barka and Debub administrative zones (Zobas), which are the country's main grain producing areas and normally supply more than 75 percent of Eritrea's cereal production, have been at the centre of the recent clashes and may have little or no harvest in 2000. The failure of two successive rainy seasons in Anseba, North Red Sea and South Red Sea administrative zones has also severely affected nearly 340 000 people.
As the next harvest is only expected in November/December 2001, these regions known as "the bread basket of Eritrea" together with other parts will depend on emergency relief food for at least the next 18 months. In August, WFP distributed about 13 500 tonnes of food to more than 586 000 war-affected and 67 800 drought-affected people.
Donor support is sought for a revised Emergency Operation approved by FAO and WFP in June this year for a total of 151 000 tonnes of food assistance to 750 000 internally displaced people and for a UN Inter-Agency Appeal to assist some 335 000 drought affected people. By early September total pledges amounted to 90 800 tonnes of which about 55 000 tonnes had been delivered .
Despite a late start of rains, the 2000 main "Meher" season crops are developing satisfactorily in important cereal producing areas of central, northern and western parts of the country. However, continued rains through October are necessary for crops to mature. Moreover, cereal production in eastern and southern parts of the country is expected to be well below last year's reduced crop.
The 2000 secondary "Belg" crop, normally harvested from June, has failed due to drought. Although Belg production accounts for only 8 to 10 percent of total cereal production, it is important in several areas where it provides the bulk of annual food supplies. The magnitude of food shortages has, therefore, increased in terms of numbers and areas affected. Food shortages in the pastoral areas of eastern and southern Ethiopia are particularly severe where large numbers of livestock have perished and a number of starvation-related deaths occurred.
With the failure of the Belg season, the number of people in need of assistance has increased to more than 10 million people, including 400 000 displaced by the border war with Eritrea. Consequently, the overall food aid requirement in 2000 estimated earlier at 886 000 tonnes has been revised upwards to 1.2 million tonnes. Total pledges by early September amounted to 1.11 million tonnes of which 638 000 tonnes had been delivered.
Prospects for the 2000 main "long rains" cereal crop, being harvested, are unfavourable. The long rains cropping season (March-May), which normally accounts for 80 percent of total annual food production, has failed due to a severe drought. With the exception of parts of Western Province and Nyanza Province, the rest of the country, including the "bread basket" Rift Valley Province, have received little or no rainfall, leading to widespread crop failure as well as large livestock losses in pastoral areas of the north, north-east and north-west. Current official forecast puts the 2000 long rains maize crop at only 1.4 million tonnes, 36 percent below the average of 2.21 million tonnes and 22 percent less than the drought-reduced 1999 long rains crop of 1.8 million tonnes. The bean crop, estimated at about 300 000 tonnes, is 20 percent below average.
The country's food supply situation continues to be a cause for serious concern with nearly 3.5 million people now estimated to be in need of urgent food assistance. Prices of major food commodities still remain up to 50 percent higher than the five year average. Pastoralists are of particular concern as they are faced with the fourth consecutive failure of the rainy season. Availability of pasture and water resources has declined severely triggering a sharp increase in livestock mortality. With no further rains expected until the onset of the short rains season in October, the situation could only get worse. Moreover, the short rains are minor in the pastoral districts and are unlikely to lead to any significant recovery.
An Emergency Operation for US$88.5 million was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in June 2000 to assist some 3.3 million people for a period of 6 months. Earlier in May, the Government appealed for international food assistance amounting to US$134.2 million, reflecting the large numbers of people faced with severe food shortages.
Planting of the 2001 A crop season is about to start. However, below average precipitation in August and the first dekad of September are delaying field operations. More rains are urgently needed to avoid reduction in plantings.
The output of the small 2000 C season, from July to August, mainly vegetables, is forecast to be reduced due to lack of soil moisture following a prolonged dry spell since April. Lack of rains is also affecting permanent crops.
Output of the 2000 B season was estimated by a joint Government/FAO/WFP/USAID/EU Mission at an overall good level of 3 million tonnes, well above last year's harvest. However, in the South and Eastern regions and Lake Kivu surrounding areas an earlier stop of the rains resulted in reduced yields of pulses and cereals. By contrast, food production increased substantially in the North-West provinces of Gisenyi and Ruhengeri and in Kibuye, where the normalization of security conditions allowed the return of populations and weather conditions favoured crop development. Following increased plantings, good productions were also obtained in the provinces of Byumba, Kibungo and Gitarama.
Overall, the food supply situation has improved following the 2000 B harvest, particularly in the North-west provinces previously affected by food shortages. However, in the areas where production was reduced by dry weather, the food and nutritional situation is reported to be deteriorating. The situation is particular serious in the Bugesera region, affected by three consecutive poor harvest. It is estimated that 150 000 people in this region are in need of food assistance. Agricultural inputs for the coming season are also being distributed with assistance of FAO.
The current "Gu" season cereal crop, being harvested, in southern Somalia is forecast at 214 000 tonnes, about 22 percent above the post-war (1993-1999) average but below the pre-war average of about 347 000 tonnes. Widespread rains in April/May and good "Hagay" rains at the beginning of July helped developing crops in Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Hiran Bay, Bakool and parts of Lower Juba. Improved security conditions have also encouraged some households to return to farms and farming. However, poor harvests are anticipated in some pockets of Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba Regions due to erratic and insufficient rains. Moreover, the irrigated maize crop in Gedo region has been affected by very low levels of water in the Juba and Dawa Rivers.
Despite some improvement in the overall food supply situation in parts of southern Somalia, serious malnutrition rates are increasingly reported reflecting a serious decline in livelihoods due to recent droughts and the longer-term effects of years of civil strife and lack of investment in the economy.
Elsewhere, in north-western Somalia (Somaliland) late and erratic rains adversely affected the establishment of the Gu crop in some districts. The food situation is worsening in some agro-pastoral areas in Togdheer, Awdal and Sanag where successive below-normal rains have severely affected crop and livestock production. With community support waning, migration of people and livestock to Ethiopia and other regions is reported. A poor response is also reported to the UN Inter-Agency appeal which was launched in July 2000, for US$15.6 million to assist some 750 000 vulnerable people.
The recent ban on livestock imports from some eastern African countries, including Somalia, by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries due to a Rift Valley Fever scare is expected to severely affect incomes of large numbers of pastoralists, as well as the import capacity of the country.
Prospects for 2000 crops, to be harvested from October, are mixed. Abundant rains in August in most parts of southern Sudan offset low and erratic rains earlier in the season but were too late to revive short-maturing sorghum that was adversely affected by a break in rains in June/July. Western Equatoria, Lakes and Jonglei Regions are anticipated to have good crops while in Upper Nile Region, insecurity and lack of adequate inputs are expected to adversely affect production. In northern Sudan, despite good rains in the second half of August, main crop producing regions, including Gedaref and Sennar, are deficient in moisture. The success of the season will depend on continued rains through September.
Food shortages are reported in a number of locations in southern parts of the country. Recent escalation of civil conflict, particularly in Upper Nile and Bahr-El-Ghazal regions, disrupted agricultural production and resulted in loss of assets and access to markets, leaving thousands of people in urgent need of assistance. However, relative peace in most other locations has helped nutritional improvements and led to a decline in admissions to feeding centres. During August, WFP distributed 2 400 tonnes of food, about 32 percent of planned levels for Upper Nile and Jonglei Regions due to insecurity.
A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission will visit southern Sudan in October and northern Sudan later in November/December to assess this year's crop harvest and food supply prospects for the 2000/01 marketing year.
Harvesting of the 2000 main season cereal crops is complete. Preliminary estimates put total cereal production (maize, paddy, wheat, sorghum and millet) at about 3.46 million tonnes, nearly 20 percent below the five years average. The decline is attributed mainly to drought in several parts of the country.
However, the overall food supply situation has improved due to large maize imports which have resulted in a marked decline in food prices. Despite reduced pasture, livestock conditions are reported to be good. Cattle prices in July increased by 5 percent and 32 percent compared to June this year and July last respectively.
Food assistance will be required for nearly 1.3 million food insecure people, mainly in the regions of Dodoma, Mara, Shinyanga, Singida, Tabora, Tanga and southern Mwanza, who have suffered their third consecutive poor harvest.
The outlook for the 2000 main season cereal crop is favourable. However, in some districts, including Kumi, Lira and Soroti, late and erratic rains have affected yields. Pasture and livestock conditions in pastoral areas in the north-east were reported to be adequate. Recent rains have also marked the beginning of the secondary season, enabling farmers with early sowing.
The overall food supply situation is adequate. Nevertheless, some parts of the country, including Masindi, Arua and Moyo districts were severely hit by recent drought. The food supply situation also remains precarious in Kotido and Moroto districts, with nearly 215 000 people needing urgent food assistance, mainly due to a poor harvest last season and loss of cattle due to raids. Furthermore, food assistance continues to be needed for nearly 112 000 people in Bundibugyo District displaced by civil unrest.
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