In the EC, results of the cereal harvest so far continue to point to a larger output this year. FAO's latest forecast of the Community's aggregate cereal crop is 214.9 million tonnes which, although marginally down from that in the previous report, is nevertheless some 6 percent up from the 1999 output. Of this, wheat is forecast to account for 105.1 million tonnes, almost 8 percent above 1999. The bulk of the increase in wheat output is expected in Germany, the United Kingdom and Spain, although several other countries are also reported to be harvesting slightly larger crops this year. The quality of this year's crop is expected to be quite variable reflecting the variable weather conditions throughout the region. The Community's largest producer France is reported to have an above-normal proportion of low quality wheat, which will be suitable only for animal feed, but over all countries an average crop is expected. Production of all the main coarse grains is also expected to increase this year in the EC. Outputs of barley, oats and rye are forecast to increase by 6 percent, 10 percent and 5 percent respectively. Prospects for the maize harvest are also favourable and current indications point to a slightly larger crop of about 38 million tonnes this year. However, as the harvest is just starting in the main producing areas the final outcome will not be known for some time yet. The 2000 paddy harvest is getting underway in the EC. Drought conditions in the southern parts of Portugal and Spain at planting time are expected to have had some negative impact on yields. Total production is forecast to be slightly below last year's estimated output of about 2.6 million tonnes.
Aggregate cereal production is expected to be about average this year at between 550 000 to 600 000 tonnes.
Satellite imagery confirms official forecasts of a somewhat better grain harvest than last year's poor 3.6 million tonnes. However, bearing in mind untimely frost in May, hot dry conditions in June, pervasive economic problems and shortages of inputs, FAO tentatively forecasts the 2000 harvest at 4.5 million tonnes cleaned weight at most.
In 2000/01, the country will need to import cereals for human consumption. Aggregate cereal imports in 2000/01 are estimated at about 1.1 million tonnes.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (13 September)
The downward trend in winter grain plantings is continuing, reflecting poor profitability of wheat in both BiH and Rep. Srpska. By contrast, the area sown to maize continues to increase but yields are expected to be less than last year in response to hot and dry weather this summer. Animal fodder and pastures were also affected. To meet consumption demand, wheat imports have increased steadily and in the 2000/01 marketing year are projected to increase beyond the 300 000 tonnes imported in 1999/2000.
In Bulgaria, the wheat harvest is complete and output is officially estimated at 3.1 million tonnes, similar to the previous year's crop. Coarse grains output is set to drop, however, reflecting the adverse effect of spring drought and a summer heat wave on developing maize crops. Bulgaria normally produces about 1.6 million tonnes of maize but latest indications suggest this year's crop could fall well below 1 million tonnes.
The 2000 wheat harvest, officially reported at 1.08 million tonnes, is better than expected after the hot dry weather experienced in many and June. This outcome is nearly double that of 1999 (0.558 million tonnes). However, spring crops have been badly affected by the drought and output of maize is expected to be only half of target, while the yield of sunflower is likely to be even less. Output of fruit, grapes and sugarbeet are also affected, as are pastures and fodder crops. The aggregate 2000 cereal harvest could fall to about 2.3 million tonnes, below average and lower than last year's about average 2.9 million tonnes.
Despite the lower output, the country plans to export about 200 000 tonnes of wheat in 2000/01.
In the Czech Republic, total wheat production is estimated close to the 1999 level at about 4 million tonnes, despite larger plantings. The reduction is due to drought which caused yields to fall significantly. Output of barley, which is mostly spring grown and was thus most affected by the drought, is estimated to have fallen sharply from last year, reflecting lower yields and a smaller area.
The outlook is for the 2000 harvest is uncertain. Hot and dry weather in May/June has been followed by excessive rainfall in July/August. The area sown to winter wheat and rye increased. Nevertheless the 2000 harvest could be somewhat below the 5 year average of 570 000 tonnes.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (15 September)
In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, after earlier favourable conditions, drought conditions also set in during the late spring and summer reducing cereal yields. The aggregate cereal crop in 2000 is expected to be about 650 000 tonnes, of which wheat would account for about 320 000 tonnes.
Cereal crops in Hungary have been severely affected by drought during the 2000 growing season, but conditions for wheat have not been as bad as in 1999 when also the planting season was affected by adverse weather and, as a result, the area fell sharply. Output of wheat is now estimated at about 3.8 million tonnes. This is above last year's drastically reduced crop of 2.6 million tonnes but, nevertheless, well below the 1997 and 1998 levels of around 5 million tonnes. Coarse grain yields have been hit more by the exceptionally hot dry spring weather: barley output is estimated at just 900 000 tonnes compared to the average level of about 1.2 million tonnes and the maize crop could also be well down at about 5 million tonnes, compared to over 7 million tonnes in 1999, and an average of about 6 million tonnes.
Hot and dry weather in May and June were followed by excessive rains in July/August. A poor start to the spring crop growing season, mixed growing conditions, and harvest losses as a result of water logging and delays, are likely to constrain the recovery from last year's grain harvest officially estimated at a poor 787 000 tonnes. However, the areas sown to winter crops increased and overwintering conditions were good. The 2000 cereal output is tentatively forecast at 0.8 million tonnes, somewhat below average. With livestock production remaining depressed, imports of cereals in recent years are limited to about 50 000-70 000 tonnes per annum, mainly of bread quality wheat.
The outlook for 2000 grain harvest has deteriorated following excessive rains in July/August which followed hot and dry conditions in May and June. The aggregate area sown to grains - at 1.061 million hectares - remained very close to last year's. The 2000 grain harvest is anticipated to recover somewhat from last year's poor level of 2.1 million tonnes but nevertheless to remain below average. The yield of most spring crops, (spring grains, fodder, sugarbeet, potatoes) which experienced dry conditions plus subsequent flooding and waterlogging is likely to be less than last year, while that of winter crops, which overwintered well, could be higher than last year's.
Untimely frosts and persistent dry conditions from April to late June have compromised the outlook for the 2000 grain harvest, which have affected grains, fodder, fruit and grape production. Wheat production, initially targeted at 1 million tonnes, is officially reported to be 780 000 tonnes, which is better than earlier estimates and close to last year's poor level. Output of barley is reported to be 152 000 tonnes. The outlook for the maize harvest is still uncertain. The onset of rains in July has improved the outlook for spring sown crops somewhat but ever so, the aggregate 2000 grain harvest is anticipated to be well below average and below last year's poor level of 2.2 million tonnes.
The 2000 wheat harvest is adequate to meet food consumption needs but the shortage and high price of animal feed will necessitate substantial destocking. The government has prohibited wheat exports this year and is trying to procure 60 000 -80 000 tonnes for domestic reserves.
In Poland, conditions for cereal production have been particularly bad this year. Late spring frosts were followed by exceptionally hot and dry conditions and heavy summer rains have disrupted harvesting. Wheat output is estimated at 8.2 million tonnes, down almost 10 percent from last year. Coarse grain output is also forecast to be sharply reduced as a result of the adverse conditions. Rye production could fall to as low as 4 million tonnes, nearly 30 percent below the average of the past 5 years and barley output is forecast at just 2.8 million tonnes, 20 percent below the five-year average.
Romania has been struck by a severe drought this summer, reported to be the worst in the past 30 years, which has had a devastating impact on the 2000 cereal output. The latest official estimate of the wheat crop is 4.3 million tonnes, somewhat better than some predictions earlier in the summer but nevertheless about 9 percent down from 1999 and over 20 percent down from the five-year average. The summer maize crop has been much harder hit, however, and latest indications point to an output of just about 5.5 million tonnes, compared to the five-year average of about 10 million tonnes.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (18 September)
The 2000 grain harvest is well underway and yield returns confirm forecasts of a higher output than last year's poor crop, officially estimated at only 55 million tonnes of grains and pulses. However, yields in some areas affected by summer hot and dry conditions, such as the Urals, have been lower than anticipated. Current indications are that the 2000 harvest could be around 66 million tonnes, or some 10 percent higher than FAO's estimate of output last year. However, the final outcome depends crucially on the extent of the loss in yield potential due to summer dry conditions in the virgin lands and on harvesting all of the area sown - 1 million hectares less than in the preceding year.
Falling prices for cereals confirm the outlook for a better harvest. Provided the harvest forecast materializes, the cereal import requirement in 2000/01 could fall significantly below the nearly 8 million tonnes imported in 1999/2000.
In Chechnya, 2000 agricultural production was greatly compromised by the security situation as well as the shortages of machinery, fuel and inputs. The outlook for winter grain planting for harvest next year is also reported to be bleak due to lack of financial resources and fuel. Latest reports indicate that only 40 000 hectares have been prepared for autumn sowing.
In Chechnya many people are destitute and having to face another harsh mountain winter with inadequate shelter, food, water, sanitation and infrastructure. A large proportion of the population of Chechnya needs food aid to survive but pledges to date fall well short of the needs. A recent UN Inter-Agency Assessment of the situation in Grozny indicated that there is an acute need for food aid, including for communal kitchens and bakeries which are no longer operatinal due to shortage of food. These were an important source of nourishment for vulnerable gropus, such as the elderly, children and handicapped people.
WFP is currently distributing food to 35 000 beneficiaries in three districts of Grozny and has planned to cover additional 23 000 benefciaries of the fourth district in Grozny from September. However, food aid pledges to support WFP operation in Chechnya fall well short of requirements.
SLOVAK REPUBLIC (15 September)
In the Slovak Republic, contrary to expectations much earlier in the season, aggregate cereal output is estimated to be lower than last year's already reduced crop. After favourable planting and overwinter conditions, dry and hot weather affected crops in the spring and summer and yields have been lower than normal. The aggregate cereal output is not expected to be much more than 2 million tonnes, compared to about 2.8 million tonnes in 1999.
In Slovenia, a further decline in cereal output is expected this year due to the adverse spring/summer conditions. Aggregate cereal output is forecast at between 400 000 and 450 000 tonnes.
With harvesting of grains other than maize nearing completion, forecasts of another poor cereal harvest have been confirmed. Average yields per hectare as reported by the government are about 5 percent less than last year. In addition, the issue of whether the 10.8 million tonnes of wheat, 7 million tonnes of barley, 1 million tonnes of rye and 800 000 tonnes of oats, officially harvested according to the Ministry of Agricultural Policy, is cleaned or bunker weight has not been clarified. Until the harvest of maize is completed, FAO tentatively forecast the 2000 grain production (including an estimated 2.1 million tonnes of maize) at 23.9 million tonnes. This estimate is some 10 percent higher than current official yield indication might indicate to allow for underreporting. Persistent government interference in the grain market this season has created a lot of uncertainty and has not been advantageous to producers or traders.
Provided the harvest forecast materializes, grain production in the Ukraine has declined for three successive years. The country remained a net exporter of 2.3 million tonnes of cereals (mainly wheat and barley) in 1999/2000, officially registered imports of wheat reached almost 450 000 tonnes in 1999/2000 and could exceed this amount in the current marketing year.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (18 September)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) (excluding the UN Administered Province of Kosovo) between 21 June and 7 July 2000 and traveled widely throughout the main agricultural areas. The Mission found that the agricultural sector in the country has been generally in decline since the early 1990's, but that the 1999/2000 cropping year was particularly difficult. Man-made and natural disasters, (sanctions, bomb damage, floods, water logging and prolonged drought), shortages of inputs, particularly fertilizer, but also fuel, and low prices have combined to reduce the areas sown and average yields of both winter and spring crops.
The Mission estimated that the wheat area for harvest in Serbia and Montenegro for 2000 has fallen to 581 000 hectares, from 619 000 in 1999 and 800 000 in 1991, in response to poor price incentives and critical shortages of fuel and fertilizer. Based on the Mission's estimate of the area sown, (which is well below the official figure of 650 000 hectares) the Mission estimates the 2000 wheat harvest at between 1.66 million tonnes (low scenario) to 1.8 million tonnes (best case). This is less than the official estimate of 2.3 million tonnes.
The yield potential of spring crops such as maize, sugar beet and soya has also been severely compromised by the high temperatures and water shortages this spring and summer well into August. In fact, soaking rains are necessary to replenish soil moisture reserves for winter wheat, shortly to be planted. Reduced availability of animal feed could lead to further sharp reductions in animal numbers.
Domestic production and the volumes of agri-food exports necessary to secure essential import requirements, particularly oil, and gas and medicines determine domestic food availability. The country needs to import 70 percent of its fuel requirements and traditionally has financed them by industrial and agricultural exports. With contracting GDP, industry in ruins, and the share of agriculture in GDP increasing, agri-food exports accounted for 22 percent of exports by value in 1999. Exports of agricultural products, including maize and a small amount of wheat, are continuing in 2000 but were below target. The government has indicated that some 2.8 million tonnes of wheat are available in the country which is more than adequate to cover domestic demand. Considerable stocks form last year's bumper maize harvest ( 6.1 million tonnes) will help to offset this years harvest which could be halved.
Nevertheless, the outlook for 2000/01 is for food supply to tighten considerably and prices to rise further, jeopardizing the food security of the low-income population. The availability of food at the low, controlled prices, already inadequate, is decreasing while an increasing amount of food is being channelled to the more loosely regulated, higher priced market. At the same time, real salaries and wages are decreasing. Food already accounts for a significant proportion of the household budgets of the population with low incomes.
WFP is currently targeting about 700 000 refugees and socially vulnerable people. In addition the ICRC assists 200 000 IDPs with an individual food ration and 100 000 beneficiaries (social cases) through a hot meal under their soup kitchen programme.
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