FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - INDIA (25 September)
Following serious drought earlier in the year which affected a number of western and southern states, severe floods during the monsoon season have devastated many parts of the country killing several hundred people, displacing thousands and destroying crops. As a result of the disruption to agriculture, marketing and communications, the food supply situation in some states is extremely tight. The latest floods occurred in the country's most populous state, Utter Pradesh, where weeks of heavy rains caused floods displacing thousands of people. Although water levels in the major rivers and tributaries have begun receding, an estimated 40 000 people remain homeless. The floods are estimated to have killed 306 people and damaged or destroyed nearly 200 000 hectares of crops. In midSeptember, there were also renewed floods in parts of West Bengal which had also been affected earlier in the monsoon season. Reports indicate that the worst affected districts were Birbhum, Burdwan, Murshidabad and Malda, whilst major rivers and tributaries are flowing well above danger levels. Several dams and barrages in the state are also above danger levels and are having to release large volumes of water. Around 600 000 people have been evacuated to safer locations, whilst latest reports indicate that some 500 people were killed. Elsewhere, at the end of August, in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh thousands of people had to be evacuated due to rising river levels following the heaviest rainfall in decades. An estimated 142 people were killed by the floods, whilst losses in property and crops were put at U S $168 million. Monsoon floods earlier in the season, also killed several hundred people and destroyed crops in the northern state of Himachal Pradesh and the north eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. The state of Assam was the worst affected, where some 3 000 villages were submerged, and an estimated 2.5 million people made homeless. Except for Himachal Pradesh, the remaining flood-affected states are all important rice producers, accounting for some 52 percent of total kharif or monsoon rice production. Due to flood damage and erratic rainfall in parts, overall rice prospects remain uncertain. Although the outlook in major rice surplus states of Punjab, Haryana and most parts of Uttar Pradesh remains favourable, rainfall in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa, where the rice crop is mostly rainfed, has been erratic. In addition, the floods in Andhra Pradesh have reduced prospects of a bumper monsoon crop there. As result, aggregate 2000/01 rice production may be affected and be lower than the 90 million tonnes forecast earlier. Milled rice production in 1999/00 was a record 88.25 million tonnes, of which 75.6 million tonnes (86 percent) was from the main monsoon kharif crop and 12.6 million tonnes from the rabi crop.
In late August the Government announced the minimum support price for paddy for the 2000/01 marketing year (October/September) at 5 100 rupees or $112 per tonne for common varieties and 5 400 rupees or $118.7 per tonne for Grade A varieties.
In view of large wheat stocks following record wheat production of 74.2 million tonnes this year, the Government has allowed exports of up to two million tonnes during 2000/01. Export prices, allowing for transport and handling, remain unattractive compared to prevailing international prices and there is likely to be little demand.
On 1 July, the Food Corporation of India had wheat stocks amounting to around 28 million tonnes, almost twice the required minimum buffer of 14.3 million tonnes.
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