FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - KENYA (18 September)
Prospects for the 2000 main "long rains" cereal crop, being harvested, are unfavourable. The long rains cropping season (March-May), which normally accounts for 80 percent of total annual food production, has failed due to a severe drought. With the exception of parts of Western Province and Nyanza Province, the rest of the country, including the "bread basket" Rift Valley Province, have received little or no rainfall, leading to widespread crop failure as well as large livestock losses in pastoral areas of the north, north-east and north-west. Current official forecast puts the 2000 long rains maize crop at only 1.4 million tonnes, 36 percent below the average of 2.21 million tonnes and 22 percent less than the drought-reduced 1999 long rains crop of 1.8 million tonnes. The bean crop, estimated at about 300 000 tonnes, is 20 percent below average.
The country's food supply situation continues to be a cause for serious concern with nearly 3.5 million people now estimated to be in need of urgent food assistance. Prices of major food commodities still remain up to 50 percent higher than the five year average. Pastoralists are of particular concern as they are faced with the fourth consecutive failure of the rainy season. Availability of pasture and water resources has declined severely triggering a sharp increase in livestock mortality. With no further rains expected until the onset of the short rains season in October, the situation could only get worse. Moreover, the short rains are minor in the pastoral districts and are unlikely to lead to any significant recovery.
An Emergency Operation for US$88.5 million was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in June 2000 to assist some 3.3 million people for a period of 6 months. Earlier in May, the Government appealed for international food assistance amounting to US$134.2 million, reflecting the large numbers of people faced with severe food shortages.
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