FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - SOUTH AFRICA (15 September)

Official maize production estimates for 2000 have revised upwards to 10.2 million tonnes. This is 42 percent higher than last year's reduced harvest and above the average of the past five-years. This reflects an increase in the area planted and higher yields. Despite severe floods and crop losses in some provinces during the growing season, the maize belt was not affected and benefited from the abundant precipitation. Export surpluses are estimated at about 2 million tonnes and domestic prices have declined substantially from last year's level. This is likely to result in plantings reduction for the next season, starting in October.

The first official forecast of the 2000 wheat crop, to be harvested from October, point to a crop of 1.79 million tonnes, 14 percent above the reduced level of 1999 but still below average. The area planted is estimated 18 percent higher than last year reflecting diversion of land from other crops, but yields are expected to be lower following erratic weather in the main growing area of Western Cape Province. At this level of production, imports of wheat in 2001 are projected at 700 000 tonnes.

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