SOUTHERN AFRICA
An escalation of the civil war in August, particularly in the eastern province of Moxico, has worsened an already dire humanitarian situation in the country. Heavy fighting continues to increase the movement of rural populations from the countryside to provincial capitals in Moxico, Bie and Uige provinces, as well as to neighbouring Namibia, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to UN-OCHA reports, seven to eight children die daily in Luau town near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo due to starvation and malnutrition. The displaced population was estimated by the end of June at 2.5 million or 20 percent of the national population. Inadequate food aid pledges has also resulted in WFP having to cover only 1.1 million people of the 1.9 million estimated in need of emergency food assistance in accessible areas. Food distributions are likely to be reduced further if more pledges are not received. Donors are urged to make further contributions to prevent a deterioration of the already precarious food situation of the vulnerable populations.
The 2000 cereal harvest was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 504 000 tonnes, some 6 percent below last year and the second consecutive decline in production reflecting insecurity, irregular rains during the season and shortages of essential inputs. Main staple maize decreased by 8 percent. However, there was an increase in non-cereal crops, particularly rootcrops.
Cereal import requirement for 2000/01 (April/March) is estimated at 753 000 tonnes, of which 333 000 tonnes are required as emergency food aid.
Latest official estimates indicate a 2000 cereal production close to 21 000 tonnes, including 11 000 tonnes of sorghum and 9 000 tonnes of maize. Despite an increase of 20 percent in plantings, production is only 9 percent higher than the reduced level of last year and below the average of the past five years. Heavy precipitation from December to February, resulted in severe flooding in eastern and southern parts causing severe damage to housing and infrastructure and severely reducing crop yields.
Pastures and livestock conditions are reported in good conditions reflecting the abundant precipitation during the rainy season.
Cereal import requirements in marketing year 2000/01 (April/March) are estimated at 250 000 tonnes, including 65 000 tonnes of wheat. This deficit is expected to be covered on commercial basis.
Latest preliminary estimates indicate a 2000 coarse grains production of 107 000 tonnes of maize and 20 000 tonnes of sorghum, 14 percent and 40 percent respectively lower than last year's levels. Late and insufficient rains at the beginning of the season, a prolonged dry spell in January and subsequent excessive rains until March resulted in a decline in plantings and yields.
Prospects for the 2000 wheat crop are uncertain. This reflects a decline in plantings and dry weather in the past months. More rains are urgently needed to avoid a reduction in yields.
Cereal import requirements in 2000/01 (April/March) are estimated at 238 000 tonnes, including 55 000 tonnes of wheat. Virtually all these requirements are anticipated to be covered by commercial imports.
Three successive cyclones and tropical storm during the growing season caused severe damage to crops and agricultural infrastructure in central and northern parts of the East Coast. In the South Region and central parts, drought severely reduced food production. Overall, 2000 cereal production, mainly paddy, was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 2.33 million tonnes, 15 percent below the good level of the previous year. Cereal import requirements for marketing year 2000/01 (April/March) have increased considerably to 518 000 tonnes, of which 426 000 tonnes are anticipated to be imported commercially. Emergency food aid for affected people was estimated at 30 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 62 000 tonnes.
The food supply situation is tight following this year's reduced cereal production. In the structurally deficit southern region, where food production was sharply reduced by dry weather and widespread shortages of sweet potato cuttings, prices of rice, roots and tubers have increased sharply. A recent survey of the food supply situation in the region indicates that 50 districts, out of 90 assessed, will experience food difficulties in the lean season. From this, 240 000 people in 19 districts are estimated to be in serious food difficulties following near crop failure. Food aid requirements for this population are estimated at 6 500 tonnes of food aid in the form of maize, the main staple of the region.
Final official estimates indicate 2000 maize of crop of 2.47 million tonnes, only marginally lower than the 1999 record crop of 2.48 million tonnes. By contrast, production of minor rice and sorghum and millet declined from last year's level to 46 000 tonnes and 57 000 tonnes respectively. Despite late and erratic rains at the beginning of the season and subsequent floods and crop losses, abundant precipitation during the growing the season allowed the recovery of crops and resulted in higher yields. Agricultural inputs distribution programmes also supported production of maize.
Reflecting another bumper maize harvest and large carry-over stocks, the country is estimated to have an exportable surplus for the second consecutive year of about 300 000 tonnes.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to improve in marketing year 2000/01 (April/March) following this year's good harvest. Food prices are at low levels and decreasing. However, food aid assistance is needed for populations in the northern district of Karonga and in those of Chilkwawa, Nkhotakota and Nsanje, where production was sharply reduced by early dry weather and successive excessive rains.
Food production of the second season is estimated good reflecting adequate distribution of seeds, abundant soil moisture and normal to above-normal rains during the growing season. Reflecting the satisfactory outturn of the second season output, as well as food aid distributions during the past months, the food supply situation of large number of populations affected by unprecedented floods in February and March, have improved substantially. Free distribution of emergency food aid to 650 000 flood affected people will be terminated in mid-September. However, there are still many households, which remain isolated due to damage to roads and bridges without access to markets. Recent vulnerability assessments indicate that 172 000 people will require 44 000 tonnes of food assistance until the next main harvest in March 2000. Most of the assistance will be provided through WFP food-for-work projects. Seeds and tools will also be distributed to flood and drought affected farmers to ensure timely start of planting for the main season in October.
Official estimates indicate a 2000 coarse grain crop of 136 000 tonnes, including 88 000 tonnes of sorghum/millet and 49 000 tonnes of maize. At this level, production almost double the reduced levels of the past two years but is still lower than the 1997 record of 166 000 tonnes. Normal to above-normal rains since the beginning of the season caused localized floods and crop losses but, overall, resulted in higher plantings and yields.
Preliminary forecast point to a 2000 irrigated wheat crop of 4 000 tonnes, 6 percent lower than last year due to a reduction in plantings. Water levels of the dams are reported at satisfactory levels. Pastures and livestock are reported to be in fair to good conditions.
The country has a structural deficit in cereals. Import requirements in marketing year 2000/01 (April/March) are estimated considerably lower than last year at 60 000 tonnes of maize and 50 000 tonnes of wheat, to be entirely covered by commercial imports and stocks held by commercial millers. Imports of maize and wheat until the end of July amounted to 12 000 tonnes and 27 000 tonnes respectively.
Official maize production estimates for 2000 have revised upwards to 10.2 million tonnes. This is 42 percent higher than last year's reduced harvest and above the average of the past five-years. This reflects an increase in the area planted and higher yields. Despite severe floods and crop losses in some provinces during the growing season, the maize belt was not affected and benefited from the abundant precipitation. Export surpluses are estimated at about 2 million tonnes and domestic prices have declined substantially from last year's level. This is likely to result in plantings reduction for the next season, starting in October.
The first official forecast of the 2000 wheat crop, to be harvested from October, point to a crop of 1.79 million tonnes, 14 percent above the reduced level of 1999 but still below average. The area planted is estimated 18 percent higher than last year reflecting diversion of land from other crops, but yields are expected to be lower following erratic weather in the main growing area of Western Cape Province. At this level of production, imports of wheat in 2001 are projected at 700 000 tonnes.
Preliminary official forecasts indicate a 2000 maize output of 72 000 tonnes, a reduction of over one-third from the good level of the previous year. A late start of the rainy season resulted in a decline of 10 percent in the area planted and negatively affected yields of early-planted crops. Subsequently, excessive precipitation, which resulted in severe floods in November/December and February/March, further lowered yields.
As a result of this year's reduced maize harvest, import requirements in marketing year 2000/01 (May/April) have increased to 40 000 tonnes. In addition, the country has a structural deficit in wheat and rice, estimated at 46 000 tonnes. Most of the food deficit is expected to be covered commercially. Vulnerability assessments have identified some 14 000 people in need of emergency food aid until the next harvest in May 2001.
Latest official estimates indicate a bumper 2000 cereal harvest of 1.5 million tonnes, 43 percent higher than the reduced crop of last year. The maize crop is estimated at 1.3 million tonnes against 856 000 tonnes in 1999. Despite severe floods in early March and crop losses along the Zambezi Valley, the abundant rains during the growing season resulted in higher plantings and yields of the maize crop.
Early forecast points to a 2000 wheat crop of 90 000 tonnes, unchanged from last year's above average level.
Reflecting the good output, prices of maize are declining in the markets. If the production forecast materializes, the country is expected to be self-sufficient in marketing year 2000/01 (May/April). The overall food supply situation is anticipated to improve after two years of poor harvest. However, large numbers of vulnerable people will still experience food difficulties.
Civil unrest since April 2000 continue to disrupt economic and agricultural activities. Despite an improvement in growing conditions for this year's main maize crop, harvesting was interrupted by the unrest which has already affected 1 600 commercial farms. Theft of grains is also reported. There is a climate of fear amongst the commercial farmers, many of whom have abandoned their farms, left livestock unattended and fled to the relative safety of urban areas.
Preliminary official forecasts point to a 2000 maize harvest of 2.15 million tonnes. This is well above both the reduced crop of 1999 and the average of the last five years. However, due to the disruption of harvesting and marketing activities on large-scale commercial farms, this production forecast of maize may not be achieved. A final estimate is yet to be made. If the official forecast of 2.15 million tonnes is attained, the country will be self-sufficient in maize in marketing year 2000/01 (April/March). However, in the lower case scenario of 1.9 million tonnes of maize, imports of about 250 000 tonnes would be necessary.
The civil unrest has also affected planting of the 2000 wheat crop, entirely produced by commercial farmers. The area planted is estimated to have declined by one-third from last year's level. FAO's early forecast point to a crop of 210 000 tonnes, a decrease of over one-third from the bumper crop of last year. A reduced wheat harvest will result in additional import requirements, projected at 105 000 tonnes, at a time when the country faces a serious shortage of foreign exchange.
Shortages of fuel and electricity and inadequate supply of raw materials are seriously disrupting industrial activities. Recently, the important gold mining sector suspended several operations. Thus, should there be a large drop in food production necessitating substantial amounts of imports, Zimbabwe's currently low import capacity would seriously constrain its ability to cover the shortfall commercially. Access to food by the poor is already constrained by a rapid rise in food prices. In early August the price of bread increased by 10 percent. Repeated devaluation of the national currency is likely to worsen the situation. There is particular concern for the food situation of farm workers who have been displaced or lost their jobs due to the farm invasions and who do not own land to grow foodcrops. It is estimated that some 20 percent of the population is employed in the commercial farms.
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