FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - TAJIKISTAN* (13 September)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in July found that a severe drought had reduced the 2000 cereal harvest to 236 000 tonnes, down by 47 percent compared to 1999. Output of all other crops, including potatoes, vegetables and cotton have also been affected. The Mission observed that both the winter and spring rainfed wheat crop, normally harvested during June July, had almost totally failed in most places as a result of drought. Drought has also affected barley production and is severely constraining the prospects for other secondary crops (rice, maize). The irrigated wheat has also been affected, as water levels in rivers and canals have been reduced. The problem was compounded by the poor condition of the irrigation systems due to lack of maintenance. Lack of quality seeds has been another constraint. The impact of drought this year has been particularly severe, as it has hit when agriculture was already in decline because of intensifying problems relating to seed availability and decaying irrigation facilities.

Because of the drought, the cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 794 000 tonnes, including 787 000 tonnes of wheat. After taking into account a projected commercial import of 403 000 tonnes and the pledged food aid of 74 000 tonnes, the uncovered food aid requirements amount to 317 000 tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude for this impoverished country, if not addressed by the international community, could have disastrous implications for the population. In addition, the country urgently needs assistance with seed for planting starting in October.

Given that an estimated 85 percent of the population is poor, the steep drop in cereal production this year spells very bleak prospects for a very large proportion of the population. Many are already in dire conditions and the situation will worsen for increasing numbers in coming months as they exhaust whatever cereal output they have gathered or will gather as well as other means of coping that they may possess. An estimated 3 million people fall in this category, with about 2 million facing a desperate plight. Thus, with access to food through own production steeply reduced or destroyed and with virtually no means (inadequate employment opportunities and other sources of income) of accessing food through markets, these people cannot meet their basic minimum nutritional requirements during 2000/01, unless assistance is provided by the international community.

Even if rainfall and snowfall improve next year, the next wheat crop will not be available until JuneJuly 2001. However, if rains fail again, emergency assistance to Tajikistan for the purpose of life saving alone would involve much larger operations. The evolving critical food supply and cereal production conditions and access of the needy to food need to be monitored carefully with a view to making adjustments to the ongoing assistance programmes and/or designing appropriate new ones.

WFP has launched an appeal for 126 000 tonnes of food aid worth $62 million to implement an emergency operation to assist over one million people threatened by famine over the next nine months. Without assistance, about 1.2 million people will face a desperate situation with virtually no employment opportunities or other sources of income to purchase food from the market.

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