FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - THE UKRAINE (18 September)

With harvesting of grains other than maize nearing completion, forecasts of another poor cereal harvest have been confirmed. Average yields per hectare as reported by the government are about 5 percent less than last year. In addition, the issue of whether the 10.8 million tonnes of wheat, 7 million tonnes of barley, 1 million tonnes of rye and 800 000 tonnes of oats, officially harvested according to the Ministry of Agricultural Policy, is cleaned or bunker weight has not been clarified. Until the harvest of maize is completed, FAO tentatively forecast the 2000 grain production (including an estimated 2.1 million tonnes of maize) at 23.9 million tonnes. This estimate is some 10 percent higher than current official yield indication might indicate to allow for underreporting. Persistent government interference in the grain market this season has created a lot of uncertainty and has not been advantageous to producers or traders.

Provided the harvest forecast materializes, grain production in the Ukraine has declined for three successive years. The country remained a net exporter of 2.3 million tonnes of cereals (mainly wheat and barley) in 1999/2000, officially registered imports of wheat reached almost 450 000 tonnes in 1999/2000 and could exceed this amount in the current marketing year.

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