FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - UZBEKISTAN (18 September)

Indications are that the 2000 cereal harvest is less than last year. Reduced precipitation over the winter and dry conditions in the north have resulted in less availability of irrigation water and losses of rainfed crops. Official reports indicate that on the large farms, some 3.1 million tonnes of wheat and barley have been harvested, less than the (ambitious) target of 4.3 million tonnes. In addition, small holders also have to plant wheat and were expected to produce 600 000 tonnes. The output of this sector has not yet been reported but is tentatively estimated by FAO at 500 000 tonnes. This would bring aggregate wheat and barley output to 3.6 million tonnes, compared to 3.7 million tonnes last year, despite an increase of 50 000 hectares in the irrigated area sown to wheat. Output of spring grains (maize and rice) is also likely to be affected so that aggregate cereal production may not be more than 4.1 million tonnes, compared to 4.3 million tonnes in 1999. The availability of yield enhancing inputs and of irrigation water - Uzbekistan shares the waters of rivers which flow into the Aral Sea with neighbouring countries - remain a major constraint while the lack of land and market reforms also constrain the country's efforts to increase cereal yields. The northern areas of Karakalpakstan have been particularly affected by the drought. Indications are that the bulk of the mainly rainfed crops and rice have been damaged. Much of the country is arid or semi-arid and the dry conditions have adversely affected animal pasture. With regard to cotton, the major cash crop, the outlook is also for a smaller harvest than last year.

The cereal import requirement in 2000/01 is anticipated to increase beyond the 0.6 million tonnes imported in 1999/2000.

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