FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (18 September)

YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (18 September)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) (excluding the UN Administered Province of Kosovo) between 21 June and 7 July 2000 and traveled widely throughout the main agricultural areas. The Mission found that the agricultural sector in the country has been generally in decline since the early 1990's, but that the 1999/2000 cropping year was particularly difficult. Man-made and natural disasters, (sanctions, bomb damage, floods, water logging and prolonged drought), shortages of inputs, particularly fertilizer, but also fuel, and low prices have combined to reduce the areas sown and average yields of both winter and spring crops.

The Mission estimated that the wheat area for harvest in Serbia and Montenegro for 2000 has fallen to 581 000 hectares, from 619 000 in 1999 and 800 000 in 1991, in response to poor price incentives and critical shortages of fuel and fertilizer. Based on the Mission's estimate of the area sown, (which is well below the official figure of 000 hectares) the Mission estimates the 2000 wheat harvest at between 1.66 million tonnes (low scenario) to 1.8 million tonnes (best case). This is less than the official estimate of 2.3 million tonnes.

The yield potential of spring crops such as maize, sugar beet and soya has also been severely compromised by the high temperatures and water shortages this spring and summer well into August. In fact, soaking rains are necessary to replenish soil moisture reserves for winter wheat, shortly to be planted. Reduced availability of animal feed could lead to further sharp reductions in animal numbers.

Domestic production and the volumes of agri food exports necessary to secure essential import requirements, particularly oil, and gas and medicines determine domestic food availability. The country needs to import 70 percent of its fuel requirements and traditionally has financed them by industrial and agricultural exports. With contracting GDP, industry in ruins, and the share of agriculture in GDP increasing, agrifood exports accounted for 22 percent of exports by value in 1999. Exports of agricultural products, including maize and a small amount of wheat, are continuing in 2000 but were below target. The government has indicated that some 2.8 million tonnes of wheat are available in the country which is more than adequate to cover domestic demand. Considerable stocks form last year's bumper maize harvest ( 6.1 million tonnes) will help to offset this years harvest which could be halved.

Nevertheless, the outlook for 2000/01 is for food supply to tighten considerably and prices to rise further, jeopardizing the food security of the low-income population. The availability of food at the low, controlled prices, already inadequate, is decreasing while an increasing amount of food is being channelled to the more loosely regulated, higher priced market. At the same time, real salaries and wages are decreasing. Food already accounts for a significant proportion of the household budgets of the population with low incomes.

WFP is currently targeting about 700 000 refugees and socially vulnerable people. In addition the ICRC assists 200 000 IDPs with an individual food ration and 100 000 beneficiaries (social cases) through a hot meal under their soup kitchen programme.

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