FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 10/00 - ZIMBABWE*(15 September)
Civil unrest since April 2000 continue to disrupt economic and agricultural activities. Despite an improvement in growing conditions for this year's main maize crop, harvesting was interrupted by the unrest which has already affected 1 600 commercial farms. Theft of grains is also reported. There is a climate of fear amongst the commercial farmers, many of whom have abandoned their farms, left livestock unattended and fled to the relative safety of urban areas.
Preliminary official forecasts point to a 2000 maize harvest of 2.15 million tonnes. This is well above both the reduced crop of 1999 and the average of the last five years. However, due to the disruption of harvesting and marketing activities on large-scale commercial farms, this production forecast of maize may not be achieved. A final estimate is yet to be made. If the official forecast of 2.15 million tonnes is attained, the country will be self- sufficient in maize in marketing year 2000/01 (April/March). However, in the lower case scenario of 1.9 million tonnes of maize, imports of about 250 000 tonnes would be necessary.
The civil unrest has also affected planting of the 2000 wheat crop, entirely produced by commercial farmers. The area planted is estimated to have declined by onethird from last year's level. FAO's early forecast point to a crop of 210 000 tonnes, a decrease of over onethird from the bumper crop of last year. A reduced wheat harvest will result in additional import requirements, projected at 105 000 tonnes, at a time when the country faces a serious shortage of foreign exchange.
Shortages of fuel and electricity and inadequate supply of raw materials are seriously disrupting industrial activities. Recently, the important gold mining sector suspended several operations. Thus, should there be a large drop in food production necessitating substantial amounts of imports, Zimbabwe's currently low import capacity would seriously constrain its ability to cover the shortfall commercially. Access to food by the poor is already constrained by a rapid rise in food prices. In early August the price of bread increased by 10 percent. Repeated devaluation of the national currency is likely to worsen the situation. There is particular concern for the food situation of farm workers who have been displaced or lost their jobs due to the farm invasions and who do not own land to grow foodcrops. It is estimated that some 20 percent of the population is employed in the commercial farms.