FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - THE UKRAINE (6 November)

With harvesting of grains other than maize nearing completion, forecasts of the third poor cereal harvest in succession are being confirmed. Average yields per hectare as reported by the government are about 8 percent less than last year. Only the outcome of the maize harvest is in doubt. Until the harvest of maize is completed, FAO tentatively forecast the 2000 grain production (including an estimated 3.5 million tonnes of maize) at 25 million tonnes. This estimate is some 10 percent higher than current official yield indication might indicate to allow for underreporting. The poor result reflects growing problems with credit and credit worthiness and therefore the mobilization by farms of inputs. Persistent government interference in the grain market this season has created a lot of uncertainty and over years has been disadvantageous to producers and traders, reducing incentives to report output and to trade legally.

In the early months of the 2000/01 marketing year, the country has been a net importer of cereals, in part as the customs authorities have halted all processing of grain exports. The country remained a net exporter of 2.4 million tonnes of cereals (mainly wheat and barley) in 1999/2000. Officially registered imports of wheat reached almost 464 000 tonnes in 1999/2000 and could exceed this amount in the current marketing year.

Official plans call for the area sown to winter crops to increase to 8.4 million hectares and to include 7.1 million hectares of wheat, as well as 0.8 and 0.5 million hectares of rye and barley respectively. By 30 September, some 6.3 million hectares had been sown to winter crops including 5.2 million hectares to wheat. Conditions at sowing and the availability of inputs were better than last year, but the latter remain far from optimal.

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