FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2001 ETHIOPIA 17

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ETHIOPIA

Area:
976 680 sq.km
Climate:
Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:
65.0 million (2001 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$100 (1999)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:
Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:
Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:
January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
69 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


The planting of the 2001 secondary "belg" season crops has commenced in several locations. Scattered showers fell in February but substantial rains were received in March. The "belg" crop accounts for around 8 to 10 percent of annual cereal and pulses production but in some areas it is the main harvest. Harvesting of the main 2000 "meher" season crops was completed late last year. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December found that the meher crop had recovered strongly from earlier expectations due to abundant rainfall which continued through October, benefiting late sown crops. The Mission forecast a meher harvest of 11.61 million tonnes of cereals, about 7.3 percent higher than the 1999 post-harvest estimate, mainly due to an increase in area planted.

Livestock, particularly in the pastoralist areas, was devastated last year by a prolonged drought, which caused acute water and fodder shortages, exacerbated later by infectious diseases and parasites. The southern pastoralist areas of Somali, Borena, Bale and South Omo were worst hit and cattle losses at levels of up to 50 percent have been noted. Consequently, animal production among pastoralists and agro-pastoralists has been severely reduced and will take several years to recover. The late meher rains in 2000 have helped considerably in regenerating pasture and browse and recharging water points. Animals in belg-dependant zones and woredas in the settled farming areas also suffered and draught animal numbers are reported to be lower than needed, affecting area planted and quality of land preparation.

The improved availability of cereals has resulted in falling grain prices in most markets. However, despite the good harvest, some 6.5 million people will require food assistance. The food aid requirement, including displaced and refugee needs, for 2001 marketing year (January/December) is estimated at about 640 000 tonnes. Donors are urged to support local purchases to provide some strength in the market.

The UN country team has recently launched an appeal for US$203 million to assist 6.5 million people affected by drought and war.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Previous five years average production 1 145 - 7 104 8 249
Previous five years average imports 556 17 45 618
2001 Domestic Availability 1 369 - 7 569 8 938
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms) 1 369 - 7 569 8 938
2000 Production (rice in milled terms) 1 369 - 7 569 8 938
Possible stock drawdown - - - -
2001 Utilization 2 219 50 7 639 9 908
Food Use 2 014 50 6 222 8 286
of which: local purchase requirement - - 300 300
Non-food use 205 - 1 067 1 272
Exports or Re-exports - - 250 250
Possible stock build up - - 100 100
2001 Import Requirement 850 50 70 970
Anticipated commercial imports 270 50 10 330
Food aid needs 580 - 60 640
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges 481 - 64 545
of which: Delivered 106 - 21 127
Donor-financed purchases - - 17 17
of which: for local use - - 17 17
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 31 1 96 128
Indexes        
2000 production as % of average:       108
2001 import requirement as % of average:       157


FAO/GIEWS - April 2001

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