Conditions for the 2001 cereal crops remain mixed. Northern parts of the community were generally characterized by abundant rainfall during April and early May, which hampered spring and summer crop planting and other spring field activities such as fertilizer application. However, by mid-May, a period of drier and warmer conditions eased earlier problems of excess moisture and soil conditions improved. By contrast, in the Iberian Peninsula, lack of rainfall and above normal temperatures in April stressed the most advanced crops. However, conditions for newly planted summer crops improved in mid-May with cooler temperatures and the arrival of some light rain showers.
Latest information confirms expectations of a decrease in the EC cereal crop in 2001, largely reflecting a significant contraction in the winter sown soft wheat area. The aggregate wheat crop in 2001 is now forecast at 97.5 million tonnes, somewhat down from the forecast in the previous report and 7.5 percent down from last year�s bumper crop. Apart from the large area reduction, yield prospects have reduced somewhat over the past two months because of less than optimum growing conditions in many parts. Regarding coarse grains, although the outcome of spring/summer crop planting is still uncertain, tentative forecasts point to an overall reduction in output to just under 108 million tonnes, compared to 108.3 million tonnes in 2000. While barley production may decrease slightly, output of maize could increase if the larger area expected in France, the Community�s major producer, should materialize. The 2001/02 paddy season is in progress but planting intentions remain largely uncertain. Pending more information, production in the EC is tentatively forecast to recover from the 11 percent contraction experienced last year that followed from flood-induced losses in Italy. Area ceilings at the national level under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), continue to limit the scope for large increase in plantings. However, such ceilings were overshot last year in Spain. Abundant water availability in the country, combined with steady productivity gains, might induce planting to yet again exceed the CAP national planting limit, despite the resulting penalties to producer income payments in breach of the ceiling.
This year�s cereal crop is forecast to increase slightly from last year reflecting generally more favourable weather conditions. Aggregate output could be about 600 000 tonnes, including about 350 000 tonnes of wheat.
Spring crop cultivation has been completed, well ahead of last year�s schedule. Favourable weather conditions and adequate soil moisture have generally favoured both spring and winter crops. Spring grains in 2001 are expected to cover some 1.6 million hectares, similar to last year�s area, producing some 2.8 million tonnes (2000: 2.6 million tonnes). Indications are that the 2001 grain harvest could reach 5 million tonnes, cleaned weight compared to an estimated 4.8 million tonnes in 2000.
The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest is mixed. The condition of winter grains is satisfactory so far, but the final outcome of spring maize will depend crucially on regular precipitation to continue to recharge soil moisture reserves after last summer and autumn�s dry conditions. To meet consumption demand, wheat imports have increased steadily and the country has also imported maize in the wake of last year�s drought reduced output.
Weather conditions have remained generally satisfactory over the past two months for the developing cereal crops and a recovery is forecast in this year�s cereal output, after last year�s reduced crop. Aggregate output of cereals in 2001 is now forecast at about 5.4 million tonnes, about 18 percent up from 2000, of which, wheat will account for about 3.2 million tonnes.
The early outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest is mixed. After the drought-reduced output last year, precipitation has been adequate for the winter cereal crops to date but soil moisture reserves are not yet fully recharged. The 2001 wheat harvest, sown on an area of 215 000 hectares, is officially forecast at between 0.95 and 1.0 million tonnes, somewhat higher than last year�s 929 000 tonnes and above average. The area being sown to spring crops will be somewhat lower than last year�s, reflecting planned reductions in sunflower, sugarbeet and barley. The maize area is targeted to increase marginally to 386 000 hectares, from 379 000 hectares in 2000 to help replenish maize supplies after the drought reduced harvest in 2000 of only 1.3 million tonnes, compared to 2.1 million tonnes in 1999. Despite the poor harvests and a tight supply situation, maize is being exported to neighbouring Bosnia Herzegovina. The country annually needs some 650 000 tonnes of wheat, leaving an exportable surplus. Releases of wheat from the state reserves have throttled back domestic price rises for this commodity.
An average cereal output is expected this year reflecting generally satisfactory planting and growing conditions. The 2001 cereal area is estimated to be similar to the previous year�s level at about 1.6 million hectares, and output is forecast at about 6.7 million tonnes.
The early outlook for winter grains is satisfactory. Adequate precipitation in April and May and above normal temperatures in April have also allowed and early start to spring plantings. The 2001 winter grain harvest is likely to be close to last year�s good level and, provided growing conditions remain favourable until the completion of the harvests in September, aggregate output could remain close to last year�s bumper 0.6 million tonnes cleaned weight, some 25 percent more than in 1999. The recovery in milk production continued in the first quarter of 2001 and the rate of slaughter of animals decreased.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (11 June)
Prospects for the 2001 cereal crops remain somewhat uncertain after exceptionally dry winter conditions, especially in eastern parts of the country. Winter wheat production in particular has been severely affected in some counties and, as a result, the overall output could fall below average this year.
WFP continues to provide basic rations for refugees living in host families and collective centres. Since late May, the increasing tension and exchange of fire between the Macedonian Security Forces and ethnic Albanian armed groups in the region of Lipkovo municipality have brought about a renewed influx of displaced persons in and out of the country. All IDPs are lodged with host families.
Dry April conditions favoured spring crop sowing. Scattered showers in early and mid-May helped to improve soil water supplies, which have been generally low since last summer, but more moisture is still needed to ensure satisfactory development of crops through to harvest. Wheat output is now forecast to recover to about 4.5 million tonnes, after reduced outputs in the past two years. A significant recovery in maize output is also expected as long as satisfactory amounts of rainfall continue to be received.
The early outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest is satisfactory. Good precipitation this winter and spring has provided adequate soil moisture reserves. The area sown has likely remained average. Provided favourable growing conditions continue, the 2001 grain output could remain close to last year�s good 924 000 tonnes, 18 percent above the poor harvest of 1999. With livestock production remaining depressed, and animal numbers continuing to shrink, imports of cereals in recent years are limited to about 50 000-70 000 tonnes per annum, mainly of bread quality wheat to admix with local production. Indications are that animal productivity is increasing.
The early outlook for the 2001 winter cereal harvest is satisfactory but crop development in the north-eastern corner of the country, bordering Latvia, is somewhat less than a year ago. Overwintering conditions have been satisfactory this year and the 2001 grain harvest could approach the above average level of 2.7 million tonnes achieved in 2000, provided favourable conditions prevail throughout the growing season. Exports of meat (beef) have been affected by BSE but exports of dairy products increased.
Spring crop cultivation is virtually completed and has benefited from mostly satisfactory weather conditions and adequate soil moisture. The area sown to the main spring grain crops, maize and pulses, are expected to remain stable at nearly 500 000 hectares. The outlook for winter wheat, planted on an estimated 350 000 hectares is better than last year. As a result, the aggregate grain harvest is tentatively forecast to reach some 2.4 million tonnes, to be harvested from nearly 1 million hectares. This would be about 0.3 million tonnes higher than the drought reduced harvests of 1999 and 2000.
Winter and spring weather conditions have been excellent for the 2001 cereal crops. As a result, although the overall cereal area is expected to remain close to last year�s level, improved yields should lead to a significant rise in output. Currently, aggregate cereal output is forecast to recover to almost 26 million tonnes, 15 percent up from last years reduced crop. Of the total wheat is forecast to account for 9 million tonnes.
Prospects for the 2001 cereal crops have improved over the past two months with beneficial rain helping to replenish soil water reserves, which had earlier been severely depleted. Yields are likely to recover from last year�s poor levels and aggregate cereal output is tentatively forecast at almost 14 million tonnes, 4 million tonnes up from last year but still well below the average of the 5 years preceding the 2000 severe drought year.
Spring planting is proceeding well ahead of last year�s pace. By mid May, over half of the targeted spring grain area had been sown. Growing conditions for both the winter and spring crops have been mostly good, with adequate precipitation in most areas. Indications are that the aggregate area sown to grains (winter and spring) will increase by over 2 million hectares to nearly 48 million hectares, including 35 million hectares of spring grains. Most marked increase in grain sowing is expected in the Volga river basin and Central Regions. Winter grain crops were sown on 14.7 million hectares. Winterkill was limited to an average of about 1.2 million hectares.
Overall, the outlook for the 2001 grain harvest is good so far. Official forecasts put the 2001 grain harvest at 65-70 million tonnes, up to 5 million tonnes more than in 2000 ( 65.4 million tonnes). FAO tentatively forecasts this year�s grain harvest at about 74 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes more than its estimate for 2000 (71 million tonnes), about 10 percent higher than the official estimates. The Grain Union estimates that about 10-20 percent of the grain market operations are in the shadow market. Severe flooding in Yakutia has caused hardship and losses but is unlikely to affect the overall level of production.
Following a relatively good harvest in 2000, cereal imports in the marketing year 2000/01 are expected to fall to 2.4 million tonnes, compared to 8.4 million in the previous year. This includes 1.4 million tonnes of wheat and 0.7 million tonnes of coarse grains (barley, maize and rye). Cereal exports are estimated to reach 1.24 million tonnes, compared to 0.67 million tonnes in the preceding year. Official reports indicate that total grain stocks, as of 1st May, stood at 16.3 million tonnes, nearly 4 million tonnes (29 percent) higher than at the corresponding time in the preceding year. The country�s grain stocks is also reported to be sufficient to cover consumption needs until the upcoming harvest.
Official reports indicate that the spring crop area target in Chechnya is 116 000 hectares, including 63 000 hectares of grains. Nearly 38 000 hectares (33 percent of plan) had already been cultivated as of 15 May. The comparable figure for last year was 29 000 hectares. However, security problems and lack of sufficient farm inputs continue to compromise production.
Displaced and otherwise conflict-affected persons in Chechnya and in neighbouring Ingushetia continue to depend on WFP and NGOs for basic and complementary food assistance.
During the second half of May a total of 1 900 tonnes WFP food commodity was distributed to approximately 131 000 beneficiaries in both Republics. Funding constraints continue to limit WFP activities.
In the Slovak Republic, prospects for the winter grain crops are satisfactory and output is expected to recover after last year�s reduced crop.
Spring crop planting has been completed well ahead of last year�s schedule. Favourable weather conditions as well as improved access to farm inputs have enabled farmers to sow 16 million hectares of land to spring crops, by 18 May. This compares with only 12.6 million hectares at the corresponding time last year. The winter grain area also increased by 0.6 million hectares. If targets are achieved, which is likely given current good conditions, the aggregate area sown to grains for harvest in 2001 could reach 14.6 million hectares, nearly 700 000 hectares less than last year. At this stage, yield expectations on average are higher than last year and total cereal output in 2001 could reach 31 million tonnes, nearly 8 million tonnes more than FAO�s estimate for last year. Provided favourable weather persists until the completion of the harvests, output is forecast to include 18 million tonnes of wheat (2000: 11 million tonnes) and 13 million tonnes of coarse grains (2000: 12 million tonnes).
Provided production forecasts materialise, cereal imports in 2001/02 are expected to decline to less than 200 000 tonnes from nearly 900 000 tonnes in the current marketing year. By contrast, exports in 2001/02 could reach nearly 5 million tonnes, about 3.5 million tonnes more than in 2000/01, including 3 million tonnes of wheat and nearly 2 million tonnes of coarse grains.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (4 June)
The winter wheat harvest, to be started this month, has fared fairly well in response to generally good precipitation since December and despite dry conditions in the autumn, late plantings, shortages of fertilizer and a general disarray in the sector following the change of government. Estimating the area sown and the upcoming harvest is difficult in view of the uncertain benchmarks on which to base forecasts. Earlier reports that the area sown to winter cereals, (mainly wheat) had reached the targeted 700 000-750 000 hectares, despite the autumn dry conditions and shortages of inputs and money, are increasingly being queried and the figure of 670 000 hectares sown to wheat for harvest in 2001 is thought to be more realistic. Up to end May, satellite imagery indicates that crop development is on a par with last year, except that crops are better in the eastern Voyvodina, an area severely affected by flooding and prolonged waterlogging last year. Given the FAO Crop Assessment estimate of between 1.7 and 1.8 million tonnes of wheat, harvested from an area in the range of 0.6-0.64 million hectares, and the shortages of fuel, fertilizer and other inputs in 2000, the wheat harvest is forecast at about 2 million tonnes for 2001. This is below the official expectations of 2.9 million tonnes from 800 000 hectares.
With regard to the spring crops, the outlook remains uncertain. Soil moisture reserves are rebounding with good spring rains but have not yet been fully replenished. Crop yields will continue to depend on regular rains throughout the growing period until October. The area being sown to maize is officially forecast to reach 1.4 million hectares. Maize prices in the country continue to be more attractive than wheat prices, giving farmers good incentives to plant maize (the commodity is less subject to market regulation than wheat). However, even if the planned area target is achieved, the official target of a bumper yield of 6 million tonnes seems high, given shortages of fuel and agro-chemicals. Indications are that plantings of sugarbeet and soya are likely to be reduced.
WFP is currently targeting about 700 000 refugees and socially vulnerable people. WFP plans to reduce this number by half by mid-2002. In addition the ICRC assists 200 000 IDPs with an individual food ration and 100 000 people (social cases) through a hot meal under their soup kitchen programme.