FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/01 - SUDAN* (18 June)
Harvesting of the 2000/01 wheat crop, all irrigated and grown along the Nile River in northern Sudan, is complete. A recent FAO/GIEWS Crop Assessment Mission estimated the 2000/01 national output of wheat at 299 000 tonnes, some 40 percent above the previous year’s reduced crop but 30 percent below the average of the previous five years. The liberalisation of wheat production and the removal of Government support programmes that had encouraged high levels of production earlier in the 1990’s, prompted many farmers to drastically reduce wheat cultivation in the last two years and switch to more lucrative cash crops such as vegetables and oil seeds. In 2001, farmers were encouraged by the high level of wheat prices at planting time and satisfactory yield levels were achieved due to cooler than average temperatures, improved supply of irrigation water, adequate input supply and low incidence of pests and diseases.
The final estimates of sorghum and millet production for 2000/01 have been revised down by the Mission to 2.49 million tonnes and 483 000 tonnes respectively compared to 2.67 million tonnes and 496 000 tonnes estimated by the FAO/WFP mission late last year, mainly due to lower yields and pest damage. As a result, the aggregate cereal production in 2000/01 is estimated at 3.33 million tonnes, including small quantities of maize and rice. This represents an increase of some 7 percent over last year’s well below average crop but a drop of about 21 percent compared to the average of the previous five years. The revised cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (November/October) is estimated at 1.44 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at about 1.2 million tonnes, about the same as last year’s actual imports. Latest estimates of emergency food aid, in pipeline and under mobilisation, amount to 55 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of about 145 000 tonnes.
Lower harvests for two consecutive years coupled with virtual depletion of stocks have led to a sharp rise in cereal prices. In March and April 2001 sorghum prices averaged SP45 000 compared to SP15 000 for the same period in 1999 and SP30 000 in 2000. Such an increase has reduced access to food for the poorer segments of the population. The purchasing power of large numbers of people, particularly pastoralists, has been seriously eroded. With coping mechanisms stretched to the limit, farmers and other vulnerable groups have migrated in search of work and food. The number of people joining WFP’s “Food for Work” programmes has increased dramatically.
Government efforts to mitigate food shortages by lifting customs duties on food imports and financing grain purchases through the recently instituted Strategic Commodity Stock Authority have, to some extent, helped stabilise cereal markets. However, with the lean season just starting and only a fraction of the appeal for international food assistance pledged so far, the situation is likely to worsen in the coming months. The population most affected by last year’s drought are mainly located in greater Darfur and Kordofan, Bahr el Ghazal, Bahr el Jebel, East Equatoria, Jonglei, Red Sea and Butana province in Gezira State. Latest estimates put the number of people in need of urgent food assistance in Sudan at some 2.97 million affected by both drought and/or civil war. Early prospects for the 2001 main season food crops, for harvest from September, are not encouraging. The below average rainfall forecast in the main rainy season (June- September) over most of the country, and the fresh waves of population displacements due to recent intensification of civil conflict in Bahr El Ghazal, are expected to severely affect agricultural production.