Confédération française de l'industrie des papiers, cartons et celluloses (COPACEL)
Consumption and investment were the two major factors of the economic growth throughout 2000. International trade contribution was not very important but GDP growth will reach 3 percent at least.
_ Consumption was bolstered by employment. Decreasing joblessness increased purchasing power in the French economy and household purchases became higher. Moreover, the decline of unemployment modified consumer confidence. According to this, manufactured product consumption growth exceeded 3.5 percent during 2000.
_ Improvement in firms' financial situation enticed a surge in investment. The high level of demand favoured enterprise investment-planning. In this regard, industry output continued growing over 4 percent (in volume) in 2000. At the end of the year, businessmen remained trusty with a high level of confidence.
_ International trade gave a short contribution to economic growth. Exports went up because of the weakness of the Euro and the good international situation, but imports moved up because of the fast growing French economy. The high price of oil and the dollar strength (converted in Euro) reduced the balance of trade surplus (compared with 1999).
_ Finally, the growth of GDP will reach at least 3 percent in 2000, a high rate compared with the 1990s average. During the first half of the year, the economic situation become strong. A little slow down was observed during July-October period. The situation improved during the fourth quarter but the second half of the year was less stronger than the first half.
In 2000, French paper and board industry faced a good domestic market and a rising European market. The output exceeded 10 millions tonnes, a rise of 4.2 percent compared with the previous year, 1999:
_ With a production growth beyond 4 percent, 2000 remains among the best of the decade. At the end of the millennium, the French paper and board industry growth was higher than the average growth during the 1990s (3.6 percent from 1990 to 2000). Stocks effects were very feeble in 2000, contrasting with periods of high contribution such as 1994 or 1997.
_ During the first six-month period, the French paper and board industry had a high growth, above 5 percent (over the same period in 1999). This strong increase was linked to the very good economic situation in France and also in Europe. A slowdown was observed from mid-year and during the second half of 2000 the growth of the French paper and board industry remained above 3 percent.
_ Generally, all the sectors grew in 2000. In graphics, the growth in output of 3.6 percent was achieved, to 4.5 millions tonnes. Newsprint production fell by 4.6 percent (due to newsprint industry structural changes), while the output of other graphic paper rose by 6.3 percent (in volume). The output of packaging grades grew by 4.5 percent, to 4.6 millions tonnes. The production of sanitary and household grades increased by 6.4 percent.
Strong activity in paper and board industry bolstered the raw materials market:
_ An increasing woodpulp demand was observed in France in 2000, but the output of woodpulp observed a fall (-4.7 percent, due mechanical pulp industry structural changes).
_ Consumption of recovered paper continued to increase in 2000. Consumption was up by 7 percent, whilst the utilization rate reached 56 percent (compared to 55 percent in 1999).
A good economic situation and the development of new technologies in France bolstered the French paper and board market. The end of the decade left a growing demand for paper and board:
_ Compared with the 2.4 percent growth in 1999, the situation was far better in 2000. The consumption of paper and board rose by 4.5 percent, and reached the high level of 11.4 millions tonnes at the end of 2000. This year remains among the best of the decade. Only 1990 (+5.6 percent), 1994 (+9.1 percent) and 1997 (+10.1 percent) had a consumption growth over 4 percent.
_ All the grades increased during 2000. Graphic consumption rose by 5 percent,
up to 5.6 millions tonnes. Packaging grades consumption followed the same way with an increase of over 6 percent. Case materials consumption rose by 7.7 percent, folding boxboards by 4.2 percent and wrappings by 1.7 percent.
Exports went on growing during 2000, at a 3 percent rhythm (in volume). This growing occurred after a much higher performance during the previous year, 1999 (+12 percent). Finally exports reached 5 millions tonnes in 2000.
Imports rose by 3.7 percent in 2000, compared to 6.1 percent during 1999. European competitors faced a surge in domestic deliveries of French paper and board producers. To conclude, import rate fell slightly under 56 percent of domestic market in 2000. Imports from the dollar area have been declining during the year because of the weakness of the Euro.
Like the whole French industry, and regarding the high pressure on raw materials markets, French paper and board industry faced a rise in energetic prices. Increase in price commodity affected producers in a different way, depending on the use of raw materials and their integration rate towards pulp. Sector differences are noticed concerning price of paper and board. Annual financial performances to be published for 2000 will reveal different situations. Non-integrated papermakers will suffer the more, regarding raw material prices evolution.
For 2001, the world economic environment seems to remain favourable to the French paper and board industry. In France, the decreasing unemployment is likely to have a good impact on GDP growth. In 2001, it will rise by 3 percent. More generally, Europe's economies will be well oriented and euroland GDP will increase by 3 percent in 2001. Nevertheless, the American economic slowdown will continue during the first half of the new millennium, so that the economic growth in Asia will also slightly go downward, even if it still remains high. Oil prices and Euro parity will be the two undetermined factors which can have strong impacts on world economy.
French paper and board industry assumes its responsibility towards the main issues of environment and pollution. Many investments were taken in order to keep the environment safe in 2000:
_ The French Forestry Certification Association, where the French paper and board industry is represented, adopted (8 March 2000) the French certification system to unanimity. Its recognition for the Pan European Forest Certification Scheme (PEFC) is to be expected in the spring of 2001. The development of forest certification in French territory is therefore involved.
_ Many French mills were awarded the ISO 14001 in 2000, which recognizes the enterprises' capacity to respect environmental constraints. Regarding the European declaration on paper recovery, the French paper and board industry is also involved, with other European paper and board industries, in enhancing old paper. The aim of this commitment is to reach 56 percent recycling rate by 2005.