Japan Paper Association
Japan's economy continues to recover gradually. The real GDP for fiscal 2000 (ending March 2001) is estimated at a little less than 2 percent, edging up from a 1.4 percent growth in 1999.
The economic recovery for fiscal 2000 has been led by the corporate sector. Business investment has led the recovery resulting from expansion in industrial production by the increase in IT-related demands such as personal computers and mobile phones.
However, consumer spending, accounting for about 60 percent, slowed down due to no improvement in the employment situation and income being affected by company restructuring. Unemployment for the year 2000 hit a record high of 3.2 million.
For fiscal 2001, government and private sector estimate that real GDP will rise about 1.7 percent. For the year, investments will also be relatively firm, and personal spending will moderately improve, also due to corporate improvement in revenue. However, an increase in the public investment cannot be expected due to the increasing fiscal deficit. The economy for fiscal 2001 will improve moderately led by private demand.
Total production increased by about 4 percent to a record high of 31.83 million tonnes in January-December 2000.
Domestic shipments of paper and paperboard for the year 2000 rose by 3 percent compared with those of the previous year. Coated paper noticeably increased by 8 percent; newsprint and containerboard increased approximately 3 percent, respectively.
Exports of paperboard increased by 21 percent led by containerboard, whereas paper decreased by 16 percent because of the drop in coated paper being affected by the tight domestic market; as a result, total exports declined by 3 percent.
Imports increased by about 23 percent contrary to exports. Paperboard decreased, whereas paper increased by 31 percent primarily supported by coated and uncoated freesheet.
Supply and demand for paper and paperboard in 2000
Production |
Percentage change |
Shipment |
Percentage change |
Exports |
Percentage change |
Imports |
Percentage change | |
(thousand tonnes) |
||||||||
Total |
31 827 |
3.9 |
30 533 |
3.0 |
1 189 |
-3.3 |
1 326 |
23.3 |
Paper |
19 039 |
3.5 |
18 309 |
3.2 |
685 |
-15.9 |
1 107 |
31.2 |
Paperboard |
12 788 |
4.5 |
12 224 |
2.7 |
504 |
21.3 |
219 |
-5.3 |
Itemized production and shipments for paper and paperboard in 2000
Production |
Percentage change |
Shipment |
Percentage change | |
(thousand tonnes) | ||||
|
Newsprint Printing and writing Packaging Sanitary Other paper Total paper |
3 419 11 757 1 049 1 735 1 079 19 039 |
3.8 3.6 2.9 2.0 4.7 3.5 |
3 395 11 750 1 050 1 721 1 078 18 995 |
2.7 2.4 1.9 1.4 3.8 2.4 |
|
Containerboard Folding carton Other paperboard Total paperboard |
9 676 2 092 1 021 12 789 |
5.4 0.3 5.0 4.5 |
9 628 2 091 1 009 12 728 |
4.3 -0.6 2.4 3.3 |
Total paper and paperboard |
31 827 |
3.9 |
31 723 |
2.8 |
Note: Shipment = domestic shipment + exports
The performance of 18 companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for the interim report ending September 2000 showed that sales increased by 5.1 percent amounting to 1 517 billion yen, and recurring profit increased by 747.9 percent amounting to 75.3 billion yen compared with the previous year, 1999.
Sales for fiscal 2000 ending in March 2001 are estimated to increase by 5.0 percent to 3 101.8 billion yen and recurring profit to increase by 252.5 percent to 178.4 billion yen over the previous year, which will be the first increase in sales and profit during the past four years.
Such favourable performances were attained by (i) increase in sales quantities, (ii) improvements in pricing primarily for printing paper, and (iii) cost reductions achieved by companies' restructuring and rationalizations.
The demand for paper and paperboard in Japan is expected to increase corresponding to the economic growth for fiscal 2001. The demand for paper will increase by 2.0 percent to 19.80 million tonnes and for paperboard by 1.3 percent to 12.86 million tonnes, an overall increase totalling by 1.7 percent to 32.66 million tonnes. With regard to the demand by grade, coated paper in the paper sector and container board in paperboard sector will lead the market in a similar pattern to that of 2000.
The tonnage is expected to increase steadily for 2001. However, domestic production will be curbed accordingly should the recent trend of increasing imports continue.
Two new paperboard machines are scheduled to start up in 2001. However, these machines will replace existing ones within a scrap-and-build scheme; therefore, no net increase in capacity will be on stream. While limited tonnage may be increased by remodelling existing machines, relatively high operating rate will be maintained in 2001.
The Japan Paper Association (JPA) has achieved the projected 56 percent utilization rate of recovered paper in 2000, one year ahead of schedule, and has established a new goal of attaining 60 percent by fiscal 2005 ending March 2006.