Prospects for the 2001 cereal crops deteriorated significantly during July and August due to drought in the main producing areas. As of late August, the winter wheat harvest was well underway and yields so far are reported to be well below average. Latest official estimates now put the aggregate wheat output in 2001 at 21.5 million tonnes, 20 percent down from last year�s good crop and below average, despite a similar area sown. For barley, plantings were reduced and yields are estimated to be down, so the 2001 crop is estimated well below last year�s and the average at just 11.6 million tonnes. By contrast, an increased in the maize crop is forecast, by over 20 percent, to about 8.4 million tonnes.
The latest USDA Crop Production report in September, put total wheat production in the United States in 2001 at 54 million tonnes, some 10 percent down from the previous year and well below average, mostly reflecting a further decline in plantings to the smallest area since 1971. As of early September the winter wheat planting for the 2002 crop was just getting underway in some southern states, while the maize harvest was just starting in the corn belt. Aggregate coarse grains output in 2001 is now forecast at 257 million tonnes, about 7 percent down from the previous year. Of the total, maize would account for 235 million tonnes, compared to 253 million tonnes a year earlier.