The area planted to wheat this year is forecast at 7.2 million hectares, 90 percent of which was already sown by the end of August. Favourable winter weather conditions are helping crop development and production is provisionally estimated to reach 18.0 million tonnes, some 9 percent higher than last year. The area planted to barley is also expected to be some 40 percent higher than last year. Maize harvest finished in June and current estimates indicate an output of 15.7 million tonnes, about 8 percent lower than last year. Official sources indicate that the area harvested to paddy reached 134 000 hectares, and output is estimated at 640 000 tonnes, 30 percent lower than last year.
Winter crops growing in the valleys of Santa Cruz are developing normally. Water reservoirs at the start of winter were full from abundant summer rains, and water levels are expected to improve this spring from defrosting following a particularly intense winter of heavy snowing. The area planted to winter crops remains unchanged from last year, with 110 000 hectares of wheat, 131 000 hectares of potatoes and 30 000 hectares of beans. In the highlands, floods earlier this year damaged an estimated 40 000 hectares of subsistence farmer crops. The food supply situation is expected to tighten because no crops are planted in the highlands during winter and farmers have to wait until May for the next crop. The departments most affected by the floods were La Paz, Cochabamba, Potos� and Oruro. Official sources also indicate that there is a low availability of seeds for the forthcoming summer season crop due to be planted in October and November.
Wheat imports are estimated at about 300 000 tonnes in the 2000/01 (July/June) marketing year. Wheat import requirements in the current marketing year are forecast in excess of 300 000 tonnes.
Cereal crops are in good conditions in the southern states of Brazil. Wheat output is forecast at 3.4 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes last year) due to a 57 percent increase in plantings and normal winter weather. The area planted to second season maize (safrinha) has been revised upwards; output is forecast to increase 59 percent from last year and reach 6.1 million tonnes. The outlook for crops in the Northeast is not favourable. SUDENE, the Government development agency for the northeast, informs that during July and August very dry weather conditions prevailed. More dry weather is expected for the semester that starts in September. Second season bean crops were severely affected by drought. IBGE, the Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography, estimates that the losses represent 11 percent of the crop in Ceara, 57 percent in Rio Grande du Norte and 85 percent in Paraiba. The losses in the important producing state of Bahia have not yet been quantified. The dry weather is expected to continue until November. Early forecast of 7 million tonnes of wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) remain unchanged despite the anticipated increase in production.
Planting intentions of 438 000 hectares to wheat this winter may not materialize following a delay in planting caused by the intensive rains of June and July. Planting intentions for white maize remain unchanged from last year, and for yellow maize increase 14 percent. Harvesting of 2001 paddy crops finished in April and output is revised upwards from previous estimates to 140 000 tonnes. Low paddy prices are not attractive to farmers and planting intentions decrease almost 30 percent from an estimated 26 000 hectares planted last year.
Import requirements for the marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at 300 000 tonnes of wheat, 1.1 million tonnes of maize (mostly yellow) and 70 000 tonnes of rice.
Weather conditions in recent months have been adequate for the normal development of crops throughout the country. Harvesting of the main paddy crop started in August and is expected to continue throughout September. Farm-gate paddy prices were already low before the main harvest, and to protect farmers the government has stopped rice imports until next year. The Government suspended in August peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN), the second largest guerrilla movement, and a recent UN inter-agency mission that visited the country concluded that displacement has increased. The mission observed an increase in the numbers, geographical extension and political complexities of the displacement phenomenon, and insisted that the affected populations are in urgent need of protection and humanitarian assistance.
Imports in marketing year 2000/01 (July/June) are estimated at 1.2 million tonnes of wheat and 2.1 million tonnes of maize, mainly for feed. Import requirements of both commodities in the next marketing year are forecast to increase by about 5 percent.
Winter rains some 30 percent lower than normal affected the development of cereal crops in the Andean provinces of Pichincha, Tungurahua, Azuay and Chimborazo, and yields are expected to be 20 percent lower than last year. Reports indicate that potato crops were not affected and that the yields obtained are average. Elsewhere the weather was adequate for the normal development of crops. Intensive rains during June in Amazonian provinces caused localized floods that affected 6 000 hectares of staple crops of subsistence farmers. The volcano Tungurahua increased its activity early in August and its ash forced the evacuation of approximately 20 000 people and 16 000 head of cattle. Some 6 000 cattle were killed and about 48 000 hectares of pastures and crop lands were damaged in the provinces of Tungurahua and Chimborazo. The international community is providing food assistance to the affected population. The volcanic activity decreased at the end of August and some families are already returning to their homes.
Import requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are estimated at 450 000 tonnes of wheat and 200 000 tonnes of maize.
An earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the Richter Scale hit southern Peru on 23 June 2001, affecting the departments of Arequipa, Moquegua, Tacna and Ayacucho. The earthquake damaged the irrigation system of approximately 116 000 hectares of 60 000 farmers. Tidal waves also destroyed about 2000 hectares of coastal crops, including beans, maize, potatoes and other vegetables, and damaged the fishing equipment of 1000 small fisher folks. No important damage to the most important commercial crop cultivated in the area (paddy) is reported, as its harvest was almost finished by the time the quake occurred. For the country as a whole, paddy output is provisionally estimated to increase 10 percent from last year due to larger planting and an abundant water supply.
Import requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are estimated at 1.3 million tonnes of wheat and 1 million tonnes of maize (mostly yellow).
The area planted to wheat has been revised downwards to 150 000 hectares following a delay in soil preparation due to intensive rains in early winter and financial constraints. This area represents an increase of 22 percent from the area planted last year. An estimated 115 000 hectares of barley have been planted, representing a 31 percent increase from last year. Both crops were favoured by a cold and rainy winter and they look in good conditions. Heavy rains in August forced the evacuation of about 3 000 people in the northern department of Artigas. Earlier this year, heavy rains in June also caused localized floods and left 8 000 people homeless in the same area.
Harvesting of maize started in July and is expected to continue until early next year. Most of the maize planted is white and used as food. Last year white maize production increased substantially and the government was forced to intervene to sustain producer prices. Output in 2002 is provisionally estimated to be 10 percent lower than the 1.1 million tonnes obtained in 2001 following lower plantings.
Both wheat and yellow maize imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are expected to be around 1.3 million tonnes each.