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1/ Bold print is used for countries with unfavourable crop prospects for current crops and/or uncovered shortfalls in food supplies in the current marketing year requiring exceptional and/or emergency assistance. Countries affected or threatened by successive bad crops and/or food shortages are marked with an asterisk (*).
Harvesting of the 2001 cereal crops has been completed and aggregate production is provisionally estimated at 2.6 million tonnes, a significant recovery from last year�s drought affected levels. About 2.0 million tonnes of wheat have been harvested compared to 750 000 tonnes the year before, while barley output, mainly used for feed, increased from 300 000 tonnes to 573 000 tonnes.
Despite improvements in production, substantial cereal imports are still necessary to meet domestic requirements. Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at about 5 million tonnes, while some 600 000 tonnes of barley are anticipated.
Harvesting of the 2001 irrigated wheat crop was completed in July and output is provisionally estimated to be slightly above average at 6.3 million tonnes, but below the 2000 good crop of 6.6 million tonnes. Harvesting of the maize crop is well underway while that of paddy has only started. The outlook is good and maize production is anticipated to be close to the record output harvested in the previous year. Early forecasts of irrigated paddy point to a slightly aboveaverage crop of 5.4 million tonnes.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at about 6.6 million tonnes, some 200 000 tonnes above the previous year, while maize imports are expected to decrease by 600 000 tonnes to about 3.8 million tonnes.
Wheat production in 2001 is estimated to be above average at 3.3 million tonnes, more than double the output of 2000 when the crop was affected by drought. Barley production also increased substantially from last year�s low level. However, at 1.2 million tonnes, it is still well below the average of the past five years, mainly due to lower plantings caused by inadequate rainfall in the spring, particularly in the south and eastern parts of the country. Most of the increase in cereal production registered this year was in the north of the country.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at about 3 million tonnes compared to 3.3 millions tonnes in the previous year. Barley imports are expected to decline from 1.1 millions to about 600 000 tonnes, largely reflecting this year�s improved production. Maize imports should remain similar to last year�s 800 000 tonnes.
Harvesting of the 2001 winter crops has been completed and wheat and barley outputs are estimated at about 900 000 tonnes and 350 000 tonnes, respectively. Aggregate production is about 15 percent above last year�s level, when the crops suffered from inadequate rainfall. However, production is still well below the average of the past five years, due to two consecutive years of drought conditions which affected particularly the centre and south of the country.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are expected to be close to the previous year�s 1 million tonnes. Barley imports are forecast to decline from 300 000 tonnes to some 250 000 tonnes, while a small increase is anticipated in maize imports.
Rains started in mid-March in the south and were regular and widespread in April and above normal in May. They started decreasing in early June in the south and the centre while they were above normal in the north. During the first and second dekads of August rains decreased significantly but improved in the north in late August. Millet and sorghum are maturing. Overall crop prospects are favourable. Following well above average cereal harvest in 2000, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. The arrival of the first maize crop on the markets in June/July increased supplies but prices remained generally above last years levels at the same period. They started to decrease in July/August following the sales of the first maize crop and rice food aid stocks. Cereal imports for domestic use and re exports during the 2001 marketing year are estimated at 136 000 tonnes and food aid requirements at 11 000 tonnes.
After reduced rains in late July and early August, precipitation improved during the second dekad of August, particularly in the centre and the north. Rains remained widespread and above average during the last dekad. The centre and the south received significant rains in late August and early September. Soil moisture reserves were adequate for cereal crops to develop satisfactorily. Maize crops are generally cobbing but localized harvesting of early sowings has started. Millet and sorghum are generally in the heading and early maturation stages. Early planted varieties are being harvested and crop prospects are favourable. The incidence of pest infestations is limited.
Following the reduced 2000 crop, overall food supply was precarious during the lean season in several deficit areas, notably in the north, the centre and the east. This situation was confirmed by a locally organized joint CILSS/FEWSNET/FAO/WFP mission in mid-July. The sale of 14 400 tonnes of cereals at subsidized prices and the release of farmer�s stocks with the anticipated good 2001 harvests have stabilized the cereal prices on the market in August.
After regular and widespread rains since mid- July, precipitation increased significantly in all agricultural islands during the first dekad of August. It decreased from mid-August but remained widespread. The maize crop is developing satisfactorily in the humid zones of Brava, Fogo, Santiago and S�o Nicolau islands. Dry spells affected development of the late-planted maize in semi-arid zones. Rains improved significantly in late August and early September in the main agricultural islands. No significant pest activity is reported. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and cereal prices remain stable as of late August.
After substantial rainfall in late July, rains decreased somewhat in early August but remained widespread and above normal. They increased significantly during the second dekad of August and became abundant during the last dekad. Flooding in lowland sorghum fields is reported in the sub-prefectures of Mangalm�, Doum-Doum and the two Logones. Cumulative rainfall as of late August was well above last year�s level and above average. Soil moisture reserves are plentiful and crops are developing satisfactorily. Millet and sorghum are heading/maturing in the sudanian zone while they are tillering/elongating in the sahelian zone. Crop prospects are favourable reflecting widespread and regular rains in all agricultural zones.
Following a below-average harvest in 2000, the food supply situation remained tight during the lean season in the chronically deficit areas of the Sahelian zone. In August, a joint CILSS/FEWS-NET/WFP assessment mission visited the at- risk zones which had been affected by poor crops in 2000. Prices of millet have increased sharply during the lean season. The food aid received to date has not covered the needs. A WFP Emergency Operation is underway to provide 27 000 tonnes of food aid to 375 000 beneficiaries in eight departments of the Sahelian zone. Cereal prices eased slightly in late August reflecting anticipated good harvests of the 2001 crop.
Rains started in late February in the south but increased significantly in March and April. Widespread and above normal rains were received in May; however, they decreased during the second dekad of June, notably in the north, but remained regular and widespread in late June and early July. Dry conditions prevailed in the south from the second dekad of July through August. In general, crops are developing satisfactorily.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. In addition to the 120 000 Liberian refugees already present in the west, an influx of new refugees has been reported following recent fighting in Lofa county in Liberia.
First rains were registered in the south in late February/early March and became particularly abundant during the last dekad of March and the first two dekads of April. Widespread and above- normal rains covered the country in May. They decreased in the north during the second dekad but improved in the last dekad of June. The north registered reduced rains in July and August while dry conditions prevailed in the south. Growing conditions for coarse grains are generally good and crop prospects are favourable.
Reflecting poor harvests in several regions in 2000, the food supply situation is tight in some areas. Heavy rains in July caused flooding in the south and the capital, hampering marketing activities. The government announced plans to halve its rice imports in 2001 by developing more than one million hectares of inland valleys for rice production. About 10 000 Liberian and up to 2 500 Sierra Leonean refugees remain in the country.
First rains were registered in the south in late March, and subsequently covered the entire country in May. They remained widespread and above normal in June. They were abundant during the first and the last dekad of July, particularly in the west and the centre. They decreased in the western part during the second dekad of August but widespread and above normal rains covered most of the country during the last dekad. Cereal crops are maturing satisfactorily. Crop prospects are favourable.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are generally well supplied, except in the southeast where recurrent rebel incursions from Sierra Leone have severely affected agriculture and marketing activities.
The security situation has improved in border areas with Sierra Leone. UNHCR completed the evacuation of refugees from the Parrot's Beak to new refugee camps in Upper Guinea in the Prefectures of Albadaria (Boreah, Kountaya, and Telikoro camps) and Dabola (Sembakounya camp) camp and it closed the Massakoundou camp, which formerly housed an estimated 25 000 refugees. The Mambia camp near Kindia has been established as a transit center for those Sierra Leonean refugees who may seek to repatriate. Refugees preferred to remain in the Parrot's Beak or return to Sierra Leone on their own, rather than be relocated to another camp in Upper Guinea. Some have planted crops and others are finding day labor. Several relief agencies continue to provide assistance.
The recent outbreak of violence in neighbouring Lofa County in Liberia has forced Liberian refugees across the Guinean borders near Macenta and N'Zerekore. The Kouankan camp in the Macenta Prefecture houses an estimated 13 500 refugees. There are about 180 000 IDPs in the country. With the improved stability and reconstruction efforts in the major market town of Gueckedou, many IDP's have begun to move back to their homes and to their fields in hopes of a renewed market demand for their crops.
Since September 2000, about 75 000 Sierra Leoneans have returned from Guinea. A transit camp has been established in Conakry to organise repatriation of refugees by boat to Freetown where reception facilities are available. With the reopening of the Conakry to Freetown road, relief agencies have discussed the possibility of moving returning refugees overland.
After reduced rains in mid and late July, rainfall improved significantly in August, particularly during the first two dekads when it became regular and well distributed across the country. It was also abundant during the last dekad of August and in early September. Transplantation of swamp rice is about to be completed. Early transplanted rice is tillering while millet, sorghum and upland rice are elongating/heading. Harvesting of the early maize has started in Bafata and Gabu regions. Crop prospects are favourable particularly in the eastern regions. However, locusts infestations are reported in rice fields in the south, near Catchaque and Mato Faroba.
A locally-organized joint FAO/WFP assessment of the 2001 crop season and the national food security indicated in early August that the availability of food was reduced by the failure of the 2000 cashew marketing. The food supply situation along the border with Senegal was tight due to insecurity.
Rains started in late February in the south and progressed northwards in March, becoming abundant in April. They were regular and above normal in May and early June. They decreased gradually from the second dekad of June but remained widespread in the north as of mid-August. Dry conditions prevailed in the south in August. Conditions are generally good allowing satisfactory rice crop development. Rice is about to be harvested and prospects are generally favourable.
Food supply difficulties persist, as domestic production has not fully recovered from several years of civil war. It is estimated that there are a total of about 70 000 Sierra Leonean refugees and 360 000 Liberian returnees, mainly in Lofa county, one of Liberia�s main rice producing areas. Recent fighting in Lofa county has disrupted farming and displaced thousands of people. Food distributions have been undertaken in IDP's camps but some areas remain inaccessible to relief agencies.
Precipitation was generally widespread and abundant in July and August. There was a decrease in rainfall in early August but it improved during the second and third dekads. The southeast registered abundant rains in late August. Cumulative rainfall is above last year�s level and above normal. Satellite images for the first week of September indicate that the northwest of the agricultural zones received above normal rains. Crops are developing normally and irrigated rice is tillering. No Desert Locusts activity is reported. An above average to record harvest is anticipated.
The overall food situation is satisfactory. However, almost 400 000 persons were classified to be "at risk of food difficulties� by the SAP (national early warning system) and received food assistance in Mopti, Tombouctou, Gao and Kidal regions.
Following reduced rains in late July, precipitation improved significantly in the south in early August, but decreased during the second dekad. The northern parts of the producing zones received above normal rains in late August. Rains became unusually abundant in some localities of Gorgol and Brakna causing damage to young crops. By contrast, most producing zones in the south received limited rains during the second and third dekads of August. Cumulative rainfall as of late August was below last year�s level and below average. Irregular rains in August affected development of late planted crops. Early millet and sorghum are at vegetative stage, while irrigated rice is heading.
Apart from the departments of Maghama (southeast of Gorgol) and S�libaby (Guidimakha), the regeneration of pastures in most pastoral zones has been hindered by the dry spell in mid-August. Treatments against grain eating birds have been undertaken in Trarza and Gorgol. Isolated and limited numbers of Desert Locusts are reported in the south. Small-scale breeding is underway but no significant developments are likely.
The food supply situation is generally good despite an increase in the price of imported rice and other staple food in July and August. A joint CILSS/FEWS-NET/FAO/WFP mission in early August found a deterioration of the food situation in many areas in the Aftout and the Senegal River valley. It recommended food distributions in these vulnerable zones.
After above-normal rains in late July, rainfall decreased somewhat in early August. It improved significantly during the second dekad of August notably in the centre where it was abundant. Precipitation remained widespread and above average in late August and early September. Cumulative rainfall as of late August was generally above last year�s level and above normal. Crops are developing satisfactorily in all agricultural zones. Grasshopper and other insect infestations are reported in several departments; treatments have been undertaken locally. No Desert Locust activity is reported. Early harvests of millet have started in Zinder region. An above average to record crop is anticipated.
Following a below-average crop in 2000, a locally- organized joint CILSS/FEWS-NET/FAO/WFP mission in mid-August found that cereal prices were high and the food situation was tight in Ouallam, Filingu� and Loga areas. Prices of cereals increased significantly and remained higher than average during the lean season. The most at-risk zones are in Tchiroz�rine, Ma�n�-Sorea, N�Guigmi, Filingu� and Ouallam arrondissements. A total of about 53 000 tonnes of cereals have been distributed or sold at subsidised prices from international food assistance and governemental initiatives. More than 1 billion F.CFA francs has been made available from the National Food Security Fund and the Donor Common Fund to buy cereals. In addition, 2 000 tonnes of seeds have been distributed in the affected areas. Financial assistance has also been given for off-season irrigated crops.
Rains started in the southeast in early March and covered the entire country in late April. They were particularly abundant in the south and the centre in April and May. After reduced rains in mid-June, precipitation became widespread and above average in late June and July. Rains remained regular and widespread in the north but very limited in the south in August. Most cereals are in the maturation stage. Harvesting of the main maize and rice crops has started in some regions.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory.
After limited rains in the north and the centre in late July, precipitation improved significantly in the west during the first dekad of August. From 10 to 22 August, dry conditions prevailed in major parts of the country causing water stress for the young millet crop, mostly in the central and northern parts. Rains resumed during the last week of August and remained regular and widespread in early September allowing crops to recover, notably in the centre and the south. Cumulative rainfall as of the end of August was generally below last year�s level and below normal. Satellite images for the first week of September indicate that rains improved, notably in the southeast. In the south and the east, millet and sorghum are heading while they are tillering/elongating in the north. Apart from Louga area, pastures are generally good. Infestations of insects have been reported in many zones in the southeast, the centre and the northwest.
After limited rains in March, precipitation progressed from the east and reached the west in mid-April. Rains increased during the last two dekads of May and the first dekad of June. The second and last dekads of June received below average rains. They improved in early July, decreased in midJuly and picked up in late July. They decreased significantly during the second dekad of August but became widespread and above normal in the centre and the north in late August. Rice production is expected to exceed last year�s level reflecting increased plantings by returning farmers and improved conditions for distribution of inputs.
The food supply situation remains tight. About 400 000 IDP's and returnees are present in various camps but mostly in the main towns and in Tonkili and Port Loko districts. The improvement of the security situation facilitated access to vulnerable populations. WFP plans to distribute more than 50 000 tonnes of food to an estimated 544 000 people during 2001. NGOs plan also to distribute around 37 000 tonnes in the same period. The Government has launched a resettlement programme in Freetown, Port Loko, Kenema, and Pejehun districts.
First rains were registered in the south in late February and progressed northwards in March and covered the entire country in April and May. The centre received abundant rains during the first and second dekads of April. Rainfall decreased notably in the north in mid-June but remained widespread in July. Limited rains were received in August and dry conditions prevailed in the south. In the centre and the north, maize, millet and sorghum crops benefited from adequate growing conditions and the output is expected to be satisfactory.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory.
Rains started in the south in March and became particularly abundant in the south and the centre in mid-April. They progressed northward and were widespread and above normal in May. From June, they decreased gradually in the south, but were regular and above normal in the north and the centre in July and August. The northeast registered heavy rains in late July and August while the south remained particularly dry. In the centre and north, soil moisture reserves are adequate and crop prospects are favourable.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in the extreme north. A joint FAO/WFP assessment mission in late May estimated food aid needs at 19 000 tonnes for 80 000 families affected by poor crops due to drought, flooding or pest attacks in the north and extreme north provinces. Cereal imports for domestic use during the 2001 marketing year are estimated at 300 000 tonnes, mostly wheat and rice.
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (7 September)
Rains decreased during the first dekad of July, notably in the east. They increased significantly from the second dekad of July and remained widespread in August. Abundant and widespread rains were registered in late August and early September.
The food supply situation remains satisfactory. The cereal import requirement for the 2001 marketing year is estimated at 33 000 tonnes, mainly wheat.
CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF* (7 September)
Insecurity in the eastern parts of the country has worsened in recent weeks. A series of violent incidents near Bukavu, South Kivu province, have resulted in further loss of civilian lives and displacements of population. The number of internally displaced people (IDPs) as a result of the civil conflict, already estimated at 2 050 000 continues to increase. The nutritional and health situation of this population gives serious cause for concern. Less than half of the internally displaced people have direct access to relief assistance, which means that more than one million people are displaced with no kind of external assistance. Recent reports indicate that severe malnutrition rates among children under five have reached 26 percent in eastern parts of the country under rebel control. The food situation in large cities of western parts is also critical, particularly in Kinshasa and surrounding areas. In general, all the economic activities of the country have been affected by the conflict and it is estimated that more than one-third of the population, or 16 million people, have critical food needs as a result of prolonged displacement, isolation, lack of market outlets, severed food supply lines, price increases, and declining purchasing power. Recent assessment indicated a deterioration of the food situation in the Mbandaka area of Equateur province. While access to the displaced population in government-held areas has improved in recent months with partial implementation of the Lusaka Peace Accord, the retreat of foreign armies and strengthening of UN peachkeepers (MONUC), rebel-held areas remain inaccessible due to continuous violence.
After above-normal rains in late May, rainfall decreased gradually in June and July. The south was particularly dry in August and early September.
The overall food supply situation has improved. All areas are now accessible to humanitarian agencies. Most persons displaced by the civil war have returned to their homes. There are about 100 000 refugees from the Equator Province of DRC in northern areas, notably in Betou, near the border with the Central African Republic. There are also Rwandan/Burundian refugees and Angolan refugees. A WFP Emergency Operation assists 50 000 refugees from the DRC over a period of 6 months. Food assistance is also provided to some 120 000 persons in Brazzaville, Pointe Noire and other main towns.
EQUATORIAL GUINEA (7 September)
Following widespread and above-normal rains in May, rainfall decreased significantly in June. Dry conditions prevailed as of late August. The staple crops are sweet potatoes, cassava and plantains. The cereal import requirement for the 2001 marketing year is estimated at 10 000 tonnes of rice and wheat.
After regular rains in May, precipitation decreased significantly in June and July, particularly in the central and southern parts. Reduced rains were registered in late August and early September in the northeast. The main food crops are cassava and plantains but some maize is also produced (around 25 000 tonnes). The country imports commercially the bulk of its cereal requirement, estimated at around 87 000 tonnes in 2001.
The output of the 2001 B season was good. An FAO/WFP/UNICEF Mission at local level, estimated the production at 175 000 tonnes of cereals, 187 000 tonnes of pulses, 864 000 tonnes of roots and tubers and 681 000 tonnes of bananas and plantains. This is 10 percent, 24 percent, 14 percent and 4 percent higher than in the 2000 B season respectively. In aggregate, foodcrops production was 10 percent above the previous year�s level.
Despite insecurity in parts, including districts bordering Tanzania, southern districts of Gitega province, the Mwaro and Muramvya provinces, areas bordering the Kibira forest and the commune of Mutimbuzi in the Bujumbura rurale area, the security situation was generally stable in the rest of the country and agricultural activities were undertaken normally. Seed distribution was timely with the support of the international community. Rains during the season were abundant and regular and lasted until June, benefiting the maturation of late planted crops. These factors resulted in higher plantings and yields in the 2001 B season.
The output of the 2001 first crop season was also satisfactory and current forecast points to a good 2001 third season. As a consequence, the food supply situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year. The nutritional situation has also improved with a decline in the number of beneficiaries in the nutritional centres. Despite this overall improvement, the food situation of about 580 000 internally displaced people and of other vulnerable groups give cause for concern. Food aid continues to be distributed to a total of 596 299 vulnerable people. Food assistance will still be required for the remainder of the year.
Harvesting of the 2001 cereal and pulse crops will start in the coming few weeks. Cumulative main season rains from June have been normal to above normal in main cereal growing areas. Output from the current agricultural season is anticipated to be better than last year�s well-below-average crop. However, with a large proportion of the war displaced farming population still unable to return and large tracts of land being inaccessible due to landmines, optimal use of current favourable rains was not possible. Since April 2001, about 170 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to their original homes in Debub and Gash-Barka regions while about 70 000 still remain in camps.
The food situation remains tight as a result of the war with Ethiopia and last year�s drought. The 2000 cereal crop was sharply reduced due mainly to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of farmers from the agriculturally rich regions of Gash Barka and Debub, which account for more than 70 percent of cereal production.
Two Emergency Operations were jointly approved in April and May 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to about 1.8 million people affected by war and drought, worth a total sum of US$77 million for a period of 10 months (May 2001 to February 2002). The slow response to the Government�s appeal in February 2001 is a major concern with only a small fraction of the appeal of about US$224 million to assist nearly 2 million people for a period of twelve months received so far.
Prospects for the 2001 main "meher" season cereal crop, to be harvested from late October, are favourable. Abundant rains in July and August benefited developing crops in major producing regions. However, heavy rains and floods in parts have caused loss of life and localized damage to crops.
Latest official reports on the 2001 secondary "belg" season foodcrops, harvested from June, indicate a good crop and a substantial recovery from last year�s poor crop. However, an army-worm outbreak earlier in the season in eastern parts of the country and bird infestations in the south may have caused some localized damage. The "belg" crop accounts for some 7 to 10 percent of the aggregate cereal production of the country, but it is important in several areas, where it provides the bulk of the annual food supplies.
By contrast, in the pastoral areas of southern and eastern Ethiopia, the current main season rainfall was late by about a month and ended early. Poor rainfall in parts of Gode, Liban, Werder and Afder Zones, sites of last year�s severe food shortages, is particularly worrying. Recent nutritional surveys have shown high levels of global acute malnutrition, indicating continuing food shortages.
The overall food supply situation in the country is stable as a result of last year�s bumper "meher" cereal and pulse crop. However, the sharp decline in grain prices in main producing areas has severely affected household income in rural areas. The Government and donors have made some attempts to support local markets through purchases of grain. The number of people in need of food assistance is expected to decline from the earlier estimate of some 6.5 million people affected by a severe drought in the last two years and the war with neighbouring Eritrea.
An Emergency Operation (EMOP) worth about US$90 million was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in March 2001 for relief food assistance to 2.5 million small-scale farmers and drought-affected pastoralists, for a period of 10 months (April 2001 to January 2002). A revised EMOP was also jointly approved in April 2001 for 323 000 internally displaced people due to the war, worth a total of about US$55 million until end of July 2001.
Good rains in major growing areas in July and August benefited developing cereal crops of the 2001 main "long rains" season. The maize crop in the Rift Valley, Western and Nyanza Provinces is reported to be in good condition. Preliminary official forecasts indicate a maize output of 2.3 million tonnes, an increase of about 20 percent over the reduced harvest last year. Assuming normal "short rains" production early next year, the 2001/02 aggregate maize output is expected to be about 2.8 million tonnes. With substantial stocks, estimated at 180 000 tonnes, at the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) together with private stocks and cross-border trade, total supply is anticipated to cover consumption needs.
In response to expected good harvest and adequate stock levels, prices of maize, the staple crop, have declined considerably and are likely to decline even further. The Government has recently appealed to donors to increase local purchases to support the market.
The overall food supply situation has improved considerably in most of the country. However, pastoralists in eastern and north eastern parts continue to face serious food supply difficulties that are expected to persist until at least the short rains season harvest from December. The severe drought in 1999/2000 seriously undermined the food security of 4.4 million people, particularly in pastoral areas, and resulted in a massive relief operation. Notable improvement in rates of child malnutrition were reported indicating the impact of emergency interventions.
An Emergency Operation (EMOP) was jointly approved in August 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 3.16 million drought affected people. However, delays in shipments have been reported since January 2001.
A locally-organized joint Government/FAO/WFP/EU- PASAR/FSRP/FEWS-NET mission has estimated food production in the 2001 B season at 2.7 million tonnes. Although at this level output is 10 percent less than in the same season last year, in cereal-equivalent the output is 9 percent higher. This reflects very favourable production of cereals, mostly sorghum the main cereal crop of the B season. In particular, areas affected by recurring drought in the past (Bugesera, Mayaga, Kibungo, and Umutara) obtained a good harvest this season.
The satisfactory production is the result of an increase of 7.5 percent in the area planted and normal and well distributed rains during the season. However, excessive precipitation in northern and eastern parts affected pulse crops. In the north-west provinces of Giseny and Ruhengeri and in Kibuye province, food production was better this season, reflecting an improved security situation. Prices of sorghum, sweet potatoes, cassava, maize and cooking bananas by the end of July were at the same level than in the previous year and declining.
Import requirements in the second half of the year have decreased, compared to the same period last year, to 143 000 tonnes of cereal-equivalent, which is expected to be fully covered by commercial imports. However, vulnerable households may need some food assistance.
Harvesting of the 2001 main season ("Gu") cereal crops is nearing completion. Erratic and below-normal rains in the main growing areas in the south have affected crops. Preliminary forecasts point to a sorghum output of about onethird of the previous year�s "Gu" production and less than half of the post-war average. Most affected regions include rainfed areas of Gedo, Hiran, Bay and Bakool. However, a good maize harvest is anticipated in the irrigated areas of Juba and Shabelle river valleys. Crop harvest data are expected soon, when results from an appraisal by the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) in August are made available.
Overall, severe food difficulties are emerging reflecting a poor "Gu" season, slow household recovery from the earlier succession of droughts, and long-term effects of years of insecurity. Moreover, further injections of new currency into the market with the attendant depreciation of the Somali Shilling have caused a sharp increase in prices of food items, eroding the purchasing power of large sections of the population.
In northern Somalia, severe water shortages and deteriorating pasture conditions, due to poor rains, have resulted in unusual and early migration of people and livestock. Poor rains in the neighbouring region of Ethiopia have compounded the problem by increasing competition for limited pasture. The ban of livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula due to Rift Valley fever continues to cause substantial loss of income and has affected the livelihoods of a large number of pastoral households.
In response to anticipated poor harvests, dwindling stocks and inadequate relief food in the pipeline, WFP and other humanitarian agencies have appealed to the international community for additional food assistance. Earlier in the year a UN inter-agency appeal was launched for US $130 million, to support livelihoods and assist the country�s recovery.
In the wake of two consecutive years of serious drought, extensive floods in parts of northern and southern Sudan have displaced tens of thousands of people, destroyed crops and aggravated the already precarious food supply situation in the affected areas. Heavy rains in the Blue Nile catchment areas in Ethiopian highlands caused an overflow of the Nile river and submerged many villages and settlements. Despite reports of a respite, water levels in the Nile surpassed those of 1988, when the river burst its banks causing massive destruction. Worst affected areas are northern and eastern parts along the Nile, including areas around the capital city Khartoum. Parts of southern and western Sudan have also suffered from torrential rains and floods. Large numbers of people have been evacuated. Access to the affected population was made difficult by damage to main roads and bridges.
The humanitarian situation in the affected areas is reported to be critical and there is an urgent need for international assistance to rescue the stranded people and to provide them with food, drinking water, medicines and other assistance. As several areas are inaccessible, airlift operations are needed to reach the isolated population. A full assessment of crop losses and agricultural damage is not yet available, but preliminary indications point to significant crop and livestock losses.
Overall prospects for the 2001 main season cereal crop, normally harvested from October, were already poor before the damage caused by floods. A late start of the rainy season in parts and population displacement due to an escalation of conflict in southern Sudan resulted in a decline in plantings and potential yields. The losses and yield reductions caused by the floods are likely to worsen the already unfavourable harvest outlook.
FAO and WFP will jointly field a mission to the country in October/November 2001, to assess the outcome of this year�s harvest and the food supply outlook for 2001/02 (November/October) including an estimation of the country's food import requirements and food aid needs of the affected population.
Harvesting of the 2001 main season cereal crops is complete. A national crop and food supply survey planned for JulyAugust did not take place, but preliminary reports from field offices indicate above-average production as a result of favourable rains. Growing conditions have been generally good, with normal to above-normal cumulative rainfall in most parts of the country. In bi-modal rainfall areas of the north and north-east, despite a late start, good rains since April benefited the crops of the "Masika� season. Pastures and livestock are reported in good condition reflecting generally abundant rains.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. The harvests in the bimodal rainfall areas and on-going harvests in unimodal rainfall regions are increasing on-farm stocks and food access due to low prices. The food situation of pastoralists has also improved due to increased water supplies and pastures.
Harvesting of the 2001 main season cereal crop is almost complete and the outlook is favourable following normal rains. The first rainy season was fully established by midMarch in most southern parts providing adequate moisture for growing crops. In north-eastern and eastern districts, affected by successive poor harvests and insecurity, abundant rains benefited crops and pasture. Improved security conditions in Bundibugyo, Kasese and Kabarole Districts in the west and Gulu and Kitgum in the north enabled an increase in planted area.
Overall, the food supply situation is adequate. Prices of beans and maize remain stable. However, food difficulties are reported in parts of Katakwi District where almost one-third of the population is internally displaced due to insecurity. The displaced population in Bundibugyo, Gulu and Kitgum Districts are reported to have adequate own production and assistance through WFP feeding programmes.
As a result of an expansion of 13 percent in the area planted, generally favourable weather and increased distribution of agricultural inputs, the 2001 cereal production was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last May at 581 000 tonnes, 15 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase in the area planted reflected a relative improvement in the security situation which allowed progress in allocating land to internally displaced people (IDPs) within secure areas. Maize output was estimated at 429 000 tonnes, 9 percent above the level of 2000. Millet and sorghum production rose by almost one-third to 148 000 tonnes. The cassava crop also increased significantly. By contrast, bean output declined by 10 percent as a result of dry spells in northern areas.
The cereal import requirement in the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) has decreased from the previous year to 581 000 tonnes of cereals, including 176 000 tonnes of food aid. Despite the improvement in domestic production, the food supply situation remains difficult for 2.7 million IDPs. While large numbers have been allocated land, very few have been able to return to their original homes. Movement of persons and goods continues to be restricted due to persistent insecurity and landmines. The FAO/WFP Mission estimated that about 1.34 million of IDPs were still in need of food aid. However, pledges until today fall well below requirements. WFP estimates that if more pledges are not received within a month, food aid supplies will run out towards the end of the year. Renewed fighting in early September in several areas, particularly the northern province of Lunda-Sul and the southern provinces of Benguela and Huambo, has also exacerbated the already precarious food supply situation.
Production of cereals in 2001, is estimated at 10 000 tonnes, mostly sorghum. This is half of last year's crop, and markedly below average, reflecting a prolonged dry spell form late December to early February. Yields were seriously affected in most growing areas with total crop failure in parts. However, even in normal years, the country imports most of its cereal needs.
Import requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) are estimated at 263 000 tonnes, including 197 000 tonnes of coarse grains and 66 000 tonnes of wheat. While these requirements are expected to be covered on commercial basis, food difficulties are anticipated at household level in areas affected by severe crop loss.
As a result of unfavourable weather, the 2001 cereal production was sharply reduced. Frost in early January, which severely damaged crops, was followed by a prolonged dry spell from mid-January, a heat wave and a hailstorm in parts. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country last May estimated the 2001 cereal production at 80 000 tonnes, 47 percent lower than in the previous year and 60 percent below the average of the past five years. Maize output was estimated at 58 000 tonnes while wheat and sorghum output was estimated at 11 000 tonnes each.
As a consequence of the reduced harvest, cereal import requirements have increased sharply to 332 000 tonnes of cereals, including 93 000 tonnes of wheat, 236 000 tonnes of maize and 3 000 tonnes of rice. Most of these requirements are expected to be covered on commercial basis. While the Mission estimated that there was no need for large-scale food aid, assistance is required in the mountain districts, where the frost damage was most severe. Worst affected districts are Mokhotlong, Thaba-Tseka, Mohale�s Hoek and Quthing, where farmers have lost their crops and a significant number do not have adequate means to access food. This group, representing some 10-15 percent of rural households, will need food assistance and seeds for planting in the next season.
Harvesting of the 2001 cereal crop is completed. Growing conditions were generally favourable and locusts had no significant impact on production. For the main paddy crop, production forecast point to an about average harvest, higher than that of last year adversely affected by a series of hurricanes. Production of maize and other cereals is also forecast to recover from the reduced level of 2000.
The overall food supply situation in the country in the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) is expected to remain relatively stable, including in the drought- prone southern areas. Prices of food staples, including rice, maize, cassava and Irish potato, declined in July in southern areas and the number of people in need of some food assistance has declined to 117 150. Food aid requirements for these areas are estimated at 3 163 tonnes of maize.
Official production estimates of the 2001 cereal crop have been revised downward to 1.83 million tonnes, 30 percent below the bumper crops of the previous two years. The main maize crop is estimated at 1.71 million tonnes, one-third or 788 000 tonnes lower than in 2000. Production was adversely affected by excessive rains throughout the country, which resulted in floods in several areas and significantly reduced yields. In southern and central parts, dry weather in January also reduced maize yields.
As a result, the country that exported maize in the past two years will need to import commercially some 160 000 tonnes in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) in order to meet normal consumption requirements. Reflecting the reduced harvest, prices of maize have increased sharply in the past month, affecting access to food of large numbers of vulnerable people. Food shortages are being reported in some districts. Emergency food assistance continues to be distributed to 208 500 people worst affected by the floods.
The 2001 cereal production is officially estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, 7 percent higher than in the previous year. The maize crop is put at 1.14 million tonnes, 12 percent higher mainly due to an expansion in the area planted. Despite severe floods in central provinces that resulted in localized crop losses, and prolonged dry weather in southern provinces, abundant rains in the main growing areas of the north benefited the maize crop.
At this level of production, the country will have an exportable surplus of 100 000 tonnes of maize in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March). Prices of maize have increased sharply since mid-May, particularly in northern areas, and are well above last year�s levels. The highest price increase was reported in the northern province of Tete where market prices in August were 155 percent above their level of July. This mainly reflects strong demand from neighbouring Malawi where production decreased significantly.
By contrast, import requirements of wheat and rice, in which Mozambique has a structural deficit, are estimated at 227 000 tonnes and 140 000 tonnes respectively.
Despite the satisfactory overall food supply situation, there have been reports of food shortages in the southern provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane, affected by dry weather during the 2000/01 season. The situation is particularly serious as these areas were the worst affected by the severe floods of last year and coping mechanisms of households are becoming exhausted. In Chowke district, 20 000 people were reported to be experiencing food difficulties. The Government is undertaking a detailed assessment of the situation in the affected provinces. However, food aid is being provided by WFP in these areas, considered as chronically food insecure, and an expansion of the operations is under consideration. operations is under consideration.
Latest official estimates indicate a cereal output of 107 000 tonnes in 2001, a decline of 24 percent from last year�s reduced level. Production was affected by a one month dry spell from early January. Subsequent heavy rains were too late to prevent yield reductions. However, the abundant precipitation of February and March benefited pastures and livestock conditions are reported to be generally good throughout the country.
Following the reduced harvest, the cereal import requirement in marketing year 2001/02 (May/April) has increased sharply to 178 000 tonnes (57 000 tonnes of wheat and 120 000 tonnes of maize). However, commercial mills have so far planned to import only 100 000 tonnes. This would leave a deficit that needs to be covered with additional commercial imports during the marketing year. Food supply difficulties are reported in communities where the harvest was poor and for vulnerable people in urban areas.
The heaviest rains in nearly 50 years during July and August in the Western Cape province resulted in floods in urban areas of Cape Town, several of which were declared disaster areas in late August. The Government has allocated funds to assist about 18 000 affected people and food and non-food aid is being distributed by humanitarian agencies among the displaced population. The abundant rains have not damaged the wheat crop to be harvested from October.
Latest estimates of the recently harvested maize crop indicate an output of 7.2 million tonnes, against last year�s above-average output of 10.1 million tonnes. The decline reflects a decrease of 17 percent in the area planted and lower yields due to a prolonged mid-season dry spell. However, grain quality is reported to be high. Prices of maize are reported to have increase 40 percent between May and July reflecting the reduced harvest. There are concerns among millers over the declining demand for maize meal following the price rise.
At the estimated production level, and taking into account carry-over stocks of 2.1 million tonnes, maize availability for export is estimated around 1.27 million tonnes. At this level, stocks will be drawn down to a level of 750 000 tonnes at the end of the marketing year (May/April). The final amount of exports will depend on the country�s desired level of carryover stocks. The projected level of exports is insufficient to cover this year�s increased maize import needs in the sub-region and part of the requirement may need to be imported from overseas.
The early outlook for the wheat crop to be harvested from next month is satisfactory following abundant irrigation water supplies. Preliminary forecasts point to an average crop of 2.2 million tonnes, slightly higher than last year�s level.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country last May estimated the 2001 cereal output at 80 000 tonnes, almost entirely maize. At this level, production was close to the reduced crop of the previous year. The poor harvest reflects a prolonged mid-season dry spell that adversely affected yields. As a consequence, cereal imports are forecast at a high level of 123 000 tonnes, including 48 000 tonnes of wheat and 68 000 tonnes of maize. Although most of this requirement is expected to be covered on commercial terms, food assistance may be needed by the most affected households, particularly in the Middle and Lowerveld provinces.
Cereal production in 2000/01 was affected by heavy and continuous rains that resulted in localized floods in several areas, particularly along the Zambezi and Luangwa Rivers, as well as by severe dry weather in the southern areas. A final estimate for maize, the staple of the country, is not yet available. FAO�s preliminary forecast points to a crop of 950 000 tonnes, 28 percent lower than last year. At this level, and taking into account available stocks, there is a deficit of 300 000 tonnes of maize in marketing year 2001/02 (May/April) to be covered through commercial imports and food aid. In mid-July, the Government launched an appeal to the international community for 98 000 tonnes of food aid to assist 2 million people in the 42 districts, out of the 73 in the country, that had been declared in a state of emergency. However, vulnerability assessments being undertaken by WFP suggest that food aid needs of the most severely affected 1.28 million people in 23 districts amount to 42 000 tonnes of cereals. Final findings of the assessment will be available in the next few weeks.
As a result of the decline in production, maize prices started to rise in June, which is somewhat earlier than expected. By mid-August, into-mill prices for maize in Lusaka were of the order of US$136 to US$158 per tonne. The Government has announced that it will take measures to prevent further increases in maize prices and has started distribution of maize in eastern parts of the country. It also announced a ban on maize exports in early September.
Renewed violence on commercial farms was experienced in the past month as land seizures stepped up, resulting in further abandonment of farms and loss of jobs by farm workers. It is estimated that, by early September, about 70 000 farm workers and owners have been forced to leave the farms due to the farm occupations, and the number is still increasing. However, hopes of normalization of the situation have risen following a recent Commonwealth-sponsored meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, at which the United Kingdom and Zimbabwe reached an agreement over land reform. According to the deal, the United Kingdom has promised funding for a land resettlement programme in return for an end to illegal land occupations and restoration of the rule of law.
The 2001 maize crop, accounting for over 90 percent of the total cereal production, was sharply reduced. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in May estimated maize production at 1.5 million tonnes, 28 below last year�s level and well below average. This decrease mainly reflects a decline of 54 percent in the area planted on the large-scale commercial farms, due to disruption by land acquisitions activities. In the communal farms, plantings were affected by payment delays by the Grain Marketing Board, while yields were reduced by a severe mid-season dry spell followed by excessive rains, particularly in southern areas.
The outlook for the 2001 wheat crop, to be harvested from October, is uncertain. The area planted is estimated at 52 000 hectares, 14 percent higher than last year, and production is forecast at 275 000 tonnes, 8 percent above the 2000 crop. However, renewed hostilities on the commercial farms, which account for the total wheat production, could disrupt agricultural activities and adversely affect the final outturn.
Prices of basic food staples, such as bread, cooking oil, milk, sugar, cereals, vegetables and beef, have increased by between 20 percent and 70 percent in the past month and more than 300 percent since June. Maize meal prices increased by 10 percent in August in urban areas, but in some rural areas the price of maize is reported to have more than doubled. This reflects the reduced cereal harvest, a 70 percent fuel price rise, shortages of foreign exchange to import and, in general, the economic crisis facing the country.
The Government has banned private grain sales from midJuly, requiring all stocks to be sold to the Grain Marketing Board. In order to accelerate deliveries, it has also recently increased the procurement price of maize by 13 percent. It has also announced that the country will import 100 000 tonnes of maize from neighbouring South Africa but budgetary constraints limit all food imports. While currently there are no national shortages of maize, they could occur later in the marketing year (April/March) if imports do not materialize. However, food difficulties are already being experienced in some areas where farmers gathered a poor harvest. Localized food shortages are reported in parts of the Midlands and Matabelenland South provinces, with Bulilimamangwe district near the Botswana border being one of the worst affected. The situation of farm workers who lost their jobs due to farms invasions or land acquisitions, and that of increasing numbers of vulnerable people in urban areas gives cause for serious concern.
The overall food situation is very grave, with a large proportion of the population facing starvation. After three consecutive years of drought, most people have exhausted their coping mechanisms and are compelled to leave home and join the ranks of IDPs or refugees. This alarming situation is expected to worsen by recent displacements and evacuation of all UN staff due to concerns about possible attack against Afghanistan following the 11 September events in the United States. Famine indicators such as substantially reduced food intakes, collapse of the purchasing power, decimating livestock, large-scale depletion of personal assets, soaring food grain prices, rapidly increasing number of destitute people, and ever swelling ranks of IDPs and refugees are widely observed.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in May 2001 found that three successive years of below average crop production due to drought, continuing civil conflict and harsh winter have resulted in a grave food crisis. Rainfed crops (wheat and barley) had almost totally failed, except in a few pockets in different regions. Rainfed wheat production in 2001 was estimated to be about 40 percent less than even last year�s extremely low output. The 2001 irrigated cereal production was also, like that of 2000, severely affected by drought. The Mission thus estimated the 2001 total cereal production at 2.03 million tonnes - about 12 percent larger compared to 2000 but smaller by 37 percent compared to 1999. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) was estimated at about 2.2 million tonnes, including 1.4 million tonnes of food aid needs.
An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in August 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance for about 5.6 million people affected by drought, worth a total sum of US$150.7 million for a period of 12 months (November 2001 to October 2002).
Improved precipitation and better soil moisture contributed to a recovery in cereal production from a severely droughtreduced harvest the previous year. FAO tentatively estimates grain output at 352 000 tonnes from an estimated cultivated area of 189 000 hectares (2000: 225 000 tonnes, area 181 000 ha). Wheat production in 2001 at 275 000 tonnes is nearly double the harvest obtained last year, 151 000 tonnes. Official estimates point to a wheat harvest of 340 000 tonnes. Insufficient improved seeds and fertilizers as well as drought, in particular in the southern provinces bordering Iran and Azerbaijan, are reported to be contributing factors to below average production levels, despite significant efforts to increase area under cereals.
Potato production, a major staple food crop, this year is estimated at 287 000 tonnes, similar to 2000 level but more than 30 percent below the average production levels in 1990s. Total cereal import requirement in 2001/02 is seen to reach 398 000 tonnes, including 101 000 tonnes of food aid. Cereal imports in 2000/01 were 369 000 tonnes.
WFP has extended its emergency food assistance to drought victims until the end of December 2001, which has been fully integrated with the Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) launched on 1 July 2001. Under this two-year programme, WFP intends to provide over 60 000 tonnes of food supplies to some 280 000 recipients (140,000 per year). The targeted areas include the provinces of Gegharkunik, Syunik, Tavush, Shirak, and the Capital City of Yerevan as well as the drought-affected regions in the southern part of Armenia.
The recent winter cereal harvest was generally satisfactory and unaffected by drought and water shortages. However, the planned increase in area under spring crops did not materialize. Therefore, FAO tentatively forecasts grain production at 1.6 million tonnes, about 130 000 tonnes more than last year and nearly 500 000 tonnes more than 1999. The increase is mainly due to larger areas grown to cereals, nearly 700 000 hectares in 2001 compared with 648 000 hectares in 2000, at the expense of cotton and fodder crops. The grain output includes 1.3 million tonnes of wheat, 200 000 tonnes of barley and 100 000 tonnes of maize.
Cereal import requirement is anticipated at 720 000 tonnes compared to 796 000 tonnes imported in 2000/01, most of which will be imported commercially. The vulnerable and internally displaced population continue to depend on targeted food assistance. WFP has committed some 47 880 tonnes of food aid under a 3-year project (Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation) that began in July 1999 supporting some 485 000 beneficiaries.
In early August, river floods due to seasonal (July/September) heavy rains, left over 1 000 villagers homeless and swamped croplands in the northern and northeastern parts of the country. The districts of Sylhet, Sunamganj and Netrokona were among the most affected. The floods reportedly damaged the newly transplanted Aman rice, but no detailed assessment of damage has been made available yet.
The main crop currently in the ground is the aman/monsoon paddy crop, which is normally planted in June/July for harvest from October. Although previously the crop was the largest of the country�s three paddy crops, in recent years the irrigated boro crop, which is planted in January for harvest in April/May, has gained in importance . This is largely due to increased groundwater irrigation through tubewells. Harvesting of the smallest of the paddy crops, the aus crop, has been recently completed. Current forecasts indicate that paddy production in year 2001 should be a bumper 36.6 million tonnes (24.4 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), which is close to year 2000 well aboveaverage harvest.
Wheat output harvested earlier this year is estimated at 2 million tonnes which compares to year 2000 average production of 1.8 million tonnes and to the past 5-year average of 1.7 million tonnes. Imports of wheat in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are likely to be similar to the previous year 1.3 million tonnes mainly due to strong domestic demand and attractive prices in neighbouring countries.
Torrential rains and heavy flooding during most of August continue to affect the country. The number of casualties so far is officially estimated as 35 and more than 700 000 people, principally along the Mekong River, have been forced to flee their homes. Over 135 000 are in need of food assistance according to official sources. Much of the overflow of the river has been due to rains upstream in Vietnam, Thailand and Laos. Emergency assistance is being provided by the government and relief requested from international humanitarian agencies. Significant damage to the agricultural sector, housing and rural infrastructure is reported. A government estimate indicates that damage is well over US $20 million.
The heavy rains followed an extremely dry month of July, during which several provinces in southern and western parts registered precipitation levels much below the July average of the previous 30-40 years. It is officially reported that, in 9 out of the 24 provinces of the country, some 13 216 hectares of paddy and 2 776 hectares of seedlings, for a total of nearly 16 000 hectares, were affected by the severe drought, thus slowing down planting of the country�s main wet rice crop for harvesting in December. (At present, some 12 provinces are still affected by the drought.) The wet season crop accounts for about 80 percent of paddy production. Rice accounts for some 84 percent of annual food crop production and is planted on around 90 percent of cropped area, mainly in the Central Mekong Basin and Delta and the Tonle Sap Plain.
Despite the damage incurred, early production forecasts indicate that paddy output in year 2001 should be about 4.3 million tonnes (2.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), some 274 000 tonnes above last year�s aboveaverage output. Harvesting of this year�s maize crop has only started and output is provisionally forecast also to be above average, at 165 000 tonnes.
Heavy seasonal and storm rains since early July have resulted in flash floods and mudslides particularly in the south, while a most severe drought in some parts of the west and north of the country has affected tens of millions of people and livestock.
The torrential rains in the first days of July, caused by typhoons "Durian� and "Utor�, principally affected the provinces of Guangdong and Guangxi Zhuang, depriving farmers of the summer rice harvest in late July. Preliminary flood assessments indicate that about 560 000 hectares in Guangdong and 670 000 hectares in Guangxi were affected. Some 15 million people, including a large number of victims, have been affected. Significant damage to rural infrastructure is also reported. Torrential rains in the third week of August worsened the situation, particularly in the southwestern province of Yunnan, where an increasing number of victims is reported and substantial damage to crops, as well as to housing and infrastructure, has been registered. At the end of August, tropical storm "Fitow" brought torrential rains again to the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan, causing some damage to fieldcrops, mainly rice and sugar cane, and coastal fisheries.
Meanwhile, it is reported that the western province of Sichuan is suffering from its worst drought in 50 years. About 5.5 million people, almost 6 million cattle and more than 3.25 million hectares of crops, principally rice, some soybeans and maize, are affected. It is estimated that nearly 500 000 hectares of these will yield almost nothing. By contrast, rains resumed by end July in the other drought affected provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin, the largest soybean and maize producing areas respectively, in the northeast.
Wheat production in year 2001 is officially forecast at 93.9 million tonnes, compared to the previous year�s 99.6 million tonnes and well below the average of 111.4 million tonnes of the past 5 years. Maize output is expected to be about 111.4 million tonnes, some 5 percent above last year�s volume but much below the average of almost 120 million tonnes for the past five years. Official forecasts point to a paddy output in 2001 of some 179 million tonnes, compared to 187.9 million tonnes in 2000 and a 5-year average of nearly 196 million tonnes.
The 2001 aggregate output of wheat and barley is estimated at 97 000 tonnes, slightly higher than the previous five year�s average. Imports of wheat in 2001/02 (May/April) are forecast at 100 000 tonnes, while aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, unchanged from last year.
The main agricultural activity at present is the harvesting of the off-season maize crop, and planting of the off-season paddy crops. Prospects are relatively favourable due to adequate rainfall, as well as increased seed availability and acreage.
Land preparation for the main season crops will commence in October for planting to be undertaken between November and January.
Cereal production has significantly recovered from the severely drought affected crop in 2000, owing mainly to favourable weather conditions and the availability of farm inputs, the latter predominantly through international assistance. FAO tentatively estimates grain output at 613 000 tonnes (2000: 391 000 tonnes), including 200 000 tonnes of wheat, 350 000 tonnes of maize and 50 000 tonnes of barley. However, drought in the west this summer has resulted in partial or complete loss of maize and vegetables in some areas.
Given the national cereal consumption requirement of nearly 1.2 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year, import requirements, mostly wheat, are estimated at about 510 000 tonnes, including 81 000 tonnes of food aid. Cereal imports in 200/01 were 657 000 tonnes.
Following an appeal for 66 000 tonnes in food aid to assist 696 000 drought-affected and vulnerable people, 42 500 tonnes of food have been pledged and 68 percent have already arrived in the country, with the rest (13 482 tonnes) will be arriving in mid-October. The EMOP is almost 65 percent funded. Since February 2001, WFP has distributed 25 500 tonnes of wheat flour, vegetable oil and beans to 540 300 beneficiaries in 6 drought affected regions of West and East Georgia. Currently, the third and final round of food distribution is being finalized in two regions. WFP plans to continue food assistance in one region of West Georgia where subsistence farmers are facing a second year of drought. At the same time WFP continues to implement PRRO 6122.01. Under the recovery component of the operation, FFW projects have began in two regions of West Georgia with planned rehabilitation activities of cash-crop plantations, drainage and irrigation systems and public infrastructure.
Most parts of the country have been receiving above-normal monsoon rains since June; the rains have been excessive and resulted in heavy flooding particularly in the eastern states of Orissa and Bihar. According to latest official sources, more than 8.7 million people have been affected in the state of Orissa alone, which was recovering from a devastating cyclone two years ago, while about 2.16 million people have been affected in the state of Bihar. Over 240 000 homes have been damaged or destroyed and 40 000 people left without shelter. An increasing number of victims is reported. Hundreds of villages have been literally submerged by the flood waters from the main rivers, and rice fields have been swamped and crops destroyed. In the mountainous Himachal Pradesh state in the north, in the Hymalayan region, landslides caused by the incessant rains, and consequent casualties are also reported. In early September heavy rains also affected the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where a number of casualties is reported as well as damage to housing. Relief assistance is being provided by the government and international humanitarian agencies.
Paddy and coarse grains are the main crops currently in the ground for harvest from September. Production figures for 2001/02 are tentative as a detailed assessment of damage to crops has not been made available yet; however, increases in cereal production are tentatively forecast with respect to 2000/01 production year. Paddy output is forecast at about 131 million tonnes (87.8 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), well above the previous year�s production of 128.8 million tonnes. Maize output is expected to be a nearrecord 12 million tonnes, while production of millet and sorghum is put at 9 million tonnes each. Some 1.5 million tonnes of barley are anticipated.
The country is in the middle of its dry season, but unusually abundant rains in early August resulted in floods and landslides, killing at least 60 people and leaving about 800 missing in the island of Nias, located about 1 325 km northwest of Jakarta. Five villages have been swept away and hundreds of homes damaged or destroyed.
Although early rainfall in July was beneficial for planting of the second rice crop in the main rice producing island of Java, there is uncertainty as to whether the development of the crop would be affected by the floods. The main rice crop will be planted from November to January to coincide with the north-east monsoon. Paddy production in year 2001 is provisionally forecast at about 50.2 million tonnes (31.6 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), which compares with last year�s output of 51.9 million tonnes (32.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent). Coarse grain production, principally maize, is expected to be similar from the 9.2 million tonnes harvested last year, which was average.
Despite a satisfactory overall food situation, persistent conflicts and population displacements continue to cause food insecurity in the affected areas.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (3 September)
Flash floods on 10 August 2001 hit the northeastern provinces of Golestan, Khorasan and Semnan, with an estimated 1.2 million people affected in Golestan, the worst affected province. The financial loss in the agriculture sector (including livestock) has been estimated at US $23 million, and about 752 000 hectares of agricultural land were seriously damaged. On 15 August the Government appealed for international assistance to cope with the disaster.
Meanwhile, the disastrous consequences of three consecutive years of drought continue to be felt in all sectors of the economy. A recent UN inter-agency report released in July estimated that about 90 percent of the population (urban, rural, and nomadic) have been severely affected. The shortage of water in rivers and the rapidly falling water tables have resulted in an acute scarcity of drinking water in both rural and urban areas. Large sections of the rural population and their livestock in the affected provinces have started migrating to other areas in search of water. An estimated 200 000 nomadic livestock owners are reported to have lost their only source of livelihood.
Tentative production figures for 2001 indicate a wheat output of 7.5 million tonnes compared to the past five-year average of 9.7 million tonnes. Production of barley, maize and paddy is also forecast to be below average.
Cereal production in 2001 is expected to be affected by drought, now in its third consecutive year, and inadequate availability of essential agricultural inputs, particularly in central and southern regions. Last year, an FAO/WFP/WHO Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission found that in the most affected centre/south areas, not only were the plantings reduced, but also some 75 percent of the cropped area under wheat and barley was heavily damaged and mostly used as grazing for livestock. Cereal yields were reduced to all time low levels. As a result, total cereal production in 2000, estimated at some 796 000 tonnes, was about 47 percent below 1999 and 60 percent below the average of the previous 5 years.
Cereal imports under the SCR 986 oil-for-food deal have led to significant improvements in the food supply situation. However, long delays in the flow of food imports continue to be reported. Also, despite significant increases in the food ration since SCR 986, child malnutrition rates in the centre/south of the country do not appear to have improved significantly and nutritional problems remain serious and widespread.
Production of the 2001 wheat crop is anticipated to recover slightly from low production levels of recent years. Three consecutive years of drought have decimated cereal production, the bulk of which is wheat. Last year, wheat output totalled about 50 000 tonnes, about half of the previous five years average. Domestic production of wheat in normal years covers less than one-fifth of total requirement, the rest being imported commercially.
Imports of cereals in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.9 million tonnes.
A slow moving and powerful typhoon entered through southwestern Japan in the third week of August leaving behind flooded homes and disrupting air and sea traffic in various areas, particularly in the western city of Osaka, the second largest metropolitan area in the country. A small number of victims and damage to housing and infrastructure is reported.
The main harvest of rice will commence in October and extend through November. As part of the Government�s rice area adjustment programme, the planted area and consequent production are expected to decline from last year�s levels. Production in year 2001 is provisionally forecast at 10.8 million tonnes (7.9 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) which compares to 11.9 million tonnes (8.6 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) last year.
Wheat imports in 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) are forecast to be about 6 million tonnes, close to the volume imported in marketing year 2000/01.
Erratic rainfall and very high temperatures, about 10 degrees C above average, have severely affected the 2001 wheat, barley, vegetable and fruit production. The unusual spread of some plant pests, largely due to the heat wave, has also exacerbated the damage particularly on irrigated vegetable and fruit trees. This follows the severe drought in 1999 and 2000 that also seriously affected cereal and horticultural crops. The 2001 wheat crop is forecast at 13 000 tonnes, about 54 and 60 percent below last year�s reduced crop and the average for the previous five years respectively. Similarly, the barley crop, estimated at 17 000 tonnes, is about 77 percent below average. The livestock sector was also severely affected, with sheep farmers the hardest hit.
Harvesting is progressing well and FAO tentatively estimates the 2001 grains at 11.7 million tonnes from about 12.4 million hectares (2000: 11.6 million tonnes). Wheat production is expected to reach 9.2 million tonnes, about 109 000 tonnes higher than last year, while coarse grain output of 2.3 million tonnes is similar to last year�s estimates. Heavy rains in June and early July in the North, where 80 percent of the grains are grown, adversely affected yields.
Locusts, which had affected about 65 000 hectares of cropland in the Kustanay region, has had limited impact on crops this year. Crop disease and weather conditions, however, are still feared to impact crops and compromise the forecast output.
Cereal exports are expected to total about 4.65 million tonnes this year. Russian import demand due to better crops this year is expected to be low, while demands from the Central Asian CIS will remain high in the face of drought and low production.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (3 September)
Following the coldest winter in decades, DPR Korea was affected by a prolonged severe drought during spring this year. Subsequently, in late July and early August, a combination of heavy rainfall and lack of adequate drainage system resulted in floods in South Hwanghae province, one of the rice bowl provinces. In Yonan and Peachin Counties, the hardest hit areas, it was estimated that about half of the paddy fields were submerged for at least 3 days. In addition, by mid-August, more than 24 000 hectares of cultivated land were buried under water or silt when heavy rains hit coastal provinces of Kangwon and North Hamgyong, and more than 10 000 peoplelost their homes. Public buildings were also destroyed. The torrential rains and floods, following the prolonged drought, prompted expectations of sharp reductions in grain harvests, which will exacerbate the food insecurity the country already faces.
In June 2001, FAO and WFP jointly mounted a mid-year Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to DPR Korea, which found that spring rains had virtually failed in the period March to mid-June 2001. In many places, the drought lasted for 100 days, reportedly the longest spring drought in recorded history. This led to acute loss of soil moisture and depletion of reservoirs. The 2000/01 winter/spring crops of wheat, barley and potato were seriously affected. About 10 percent of planted area was estimated to have been abandoned, while yields on the remaining areas were well below normal. Wheat and barley yields dropped to 0.85 tonnes/hectare against the usual 2 tonnes/hectare, while potato yields were reduced to 3.77 tonnes/hectare against the recent past average of 10 tonnes/hectare. The aggregate production of winter/spring crops, estimated at 172 000 tonnes, were sharply below the expected output of 493 000 tonnes. Some 45 percent of the maize crop was affected by the drought, a significant proportion of the original plantings failed and two subsequent replantings had been necessary. The Mission observed unhealthy and uneven maize stands in many areas, pointing to unfavourable prospects for maize harvest in September. Early indications point to a poor production outlook this year. The outlook for the short to medium term remains bleak, reflecting significant shortfalls in fertilizers and agricultural chemical supplies, as well as a serious deterioration and aging of agricultural infrastructure, machinery and equipment. Until these constraints are overcome with adequate international assistance, the country will find it difficult to reverse the declining trends in agricultural productivity.
As a result of the production loss in winter/spring crops, the October 2000 Mission production estimate of 2.92 million tonnes (in cereal equivalent) had to be revised down to 2.57 million tonnes. Taking into account the cereal imports contracted and food aid already delivered or pledged, the Mission concluded that DPR Korea still faces a significant uncovered food deficit of 564 000 tonnes for the remaining four months of the 2000/01 marketing year. Notwithstanding the significant food deficit in the current marketing year, the Mission viewed with some concern the outlook for food supplies for the next year. Given unfavourable prospects for the main harvest in October, a large volume of food aid and concessional imports will again be required in 2002. Any significant shortfall in the mobilization of such assistance would pose a threat of a deepening food crisis in the country next year.
Another FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is expected to be fielded shortly to update the country�s food security situation and determine the amount of food assistance required following the devastating rains and flooding in August and final outcome from the prolonged drought in the spring.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (4 September)
Harvesting of the 2001 paddy crop is due to start from October and extend through November. Heavy rains in mid-July resulted in floods and landslides, leaving a number of victims and damage to housing and infrastructure. The rains were most severe in the capital, Seoul, and came after months of the worst drought on record. A detailed assessment of damage has not been made available yet, but according to official sources some 1 600 hectares of rice fields were flooded. Despite the damage, an average paddy output of 7.2 million tonnes (5.3 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) is anticipated this year. Average maize and barley outputs are also provisionally estimated.
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (10 September)
Drought and water shortages have had less impact in Kyrgyzstan compared with other countries of the region, thanks mainly to upstream benefits from rivers supplying the whole region with irrigation water. FAO tentatively forecasts grain output at 1.57 million tonnes, about the same as last year�s good crop, including 1 million tonnes of wheat 160 000 tonnes of barley and 375 000 tonnes of maize.
Though grain production this year is 175 000 tonnes less than target (1.7 million tonnes), the overall food supply situation is seen to remain satisfactory. Access to food by the poorest strata of the population is expected to remain tight, due to continuous lack of purchasing power and sources of livelihoods. However, food price index for the first half of this year remained stable and on a slightly declining trend compared with previous year.
Harvesting of the wet season paddy crop is due to start from October. Early production forecasts indicate an output of some 2.2 million tonnes (1.3 million tonnes in milled equivalent) which is close to last year�s above-average volume. Wet paddy is predominantly grown in the lowland of the Mekong River basin while a smaller low performing monsoon crop is cultivated in the uplands. With emphasis given to food production and self- sufficiency, the area planted to wet season rice (upland and lowland) has seen a 17 percent increase since 1996/97 from 535 000 hectares to 630 000 hectares.
Flooding which occurs frequently during the wet season is the main risk to lowland monsoon cultivation. Although the rice supply is satisfactory in 2001, the food situation still remains precarious households affected by floods last year, when 43 000 hectares of the 520 000 hectares of lowland paddy were entirely lost to the floods.
The output of 2001 wheat and barley, estimated at 69 000 tonnes, is about average. Imports of wheat in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.5 million tonnes.
Normal to above-normal rainfall in July has been registered in most parts of the Peninsula; however, below-normal rains are reported in some parts of north Johore, northwest Perak, south Terengganu, the northern parts of Kedah and Perlis and east Negeri Sembilan. These dry areas received less than 20 mm of rain, insufficient to meet all agricultural needs. Most areas in the Peninsula recorded 6 to 8 raindays while less than 5 raindays were reported for some areas. Planting of the main paddy crop is underway for harvesting from December. The country produces an average of 2.1 million tonnes of paddy annually, of which 60 percent is from the main and 40 percent from the off season crop. Production in 2001/02 is forecast at 2.3 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) which compares to the average 2.1 million tonnes collected in 2000/01. Normally a third of domestic consumption of rice are imported. Practically all wheat and maize requirements are imported. Production of maize should increase slightly from the previous year�s bumper crop of 1.4 million tonnes, but maize imports in 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) are expected nevertheless to rise due to the gradual recovery of the local poultry sector.
Harvesting of the 2001 wheat crop, virtually the only cereal produced in the country, planted under poor weather conditions in April/May has started. Production is forecast at a slightly below-average 190 000 tonnes, close to the output in year 2000. Overall, production has declined progressively, largely as a result of persistent adverse weather conditions, structural changes in the economy and lack of an integrated farming system. The area under cultivation, yields and aggregate output have decreased appreciably. Latest estimates indicate that the area planted to wheat, the main staple, declined from 325 000 hectares in 1996 to about 290 000 hectares in 2001, whilst production in the same period declined from 215 000 tonnes to 190 000 tonnes. The combined effect of the second consecutive severe winter and the underlying problems in the agricultural sector is likely to increase dependency on international food assistance. A UN/Government appeal for international assistance was launched last January to assist drought affected people in 73 counties.
Harvesting of the main (monsoon) paddy crop, planted in May under favourable conditions, is due to start from late September and should continue until November.
The monsoon paddy crop normally accounts for about 85 percent of aggregate production, the remaining 15 percent coming from the second or dry season crop, which is planted in October/November for harvest the following April/May. Production of paddy in year 2001 is forecast at about 20.6 million tonnes (13.1 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), some 500 000 tonnes above the near-record output in year 2000. Maize production is provisionally estimated at 300 000 tonnes.
Incessant heavy monsoon rains since June, resulting in flash floods and landslides, have killed at least 200 people across the country. Serious damage has been incurred to housing and rural infrastructure. The floods have swamped paddy fields, damaged irrigation canals and washed away roads in various parts. Flash floods and landslides in the country are common where the Hymalayan foothills are fast losing their forest cover because of increased pressure from a growing population.
Planting of the 2001 paddy crop has only been completed. Harvest is due from November and production is tentatively forecast at a slightly above-average output of some 4.1 million tonnes (2.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), similar to the output in the previous year. Harvesting of the year 2001 maize crop is underway and production is also provisionally forecast to be about average, at 1.4 million tonnes.
Moderate to heavy monsoon rains started in the last weeks of June and early July, particularly in the northeastern parts of Punjab and Kashmir; however, in the last dekad of July torrential rains fell in Potohar, the North-West Frontier Province and other northern areas. The resulting floods left a number of victims and hundreds of people homeless. Emergency assistance was provided by the Government in the affected areas.
Following the widespread rains, major activities at present include transplantation of paddy and the start of the harvesting operations of the 2001 maize crop. The effects of the rain on fieldcrops (maize, paddy, sugar cane, groundnuts, fruit) has been beneficial and yields are satisfactory.
The rains brought relief to the country after a prolonged drought. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission from 23 May to 18 June 2001 found that rainfall was between 50 and 80 percent below normal in most parts of the country during the last winter cropping season (January-March). Last year�s Monsoon rainfall (July-September) was also more than 40 percent below normal. Consequently, rainfed agriculture and vegetation in the grazing lands were severely affected.
Rainfed wheat production, estimated at about 541 000 tonnes this year, is nearly 70 percent below the average of the last five years and 62 percent below last year�s reduced crop. However, as more than 90 percent of wheat production is irrigated, the overall impact of the drought is not great, though still significant. The Mission estimated total wheat production (irrigated and rainfed) this year at 18.735 million tonnes, which compares with 21 million tonnes last year. The 2001 rice crop, planted from May for harvest in October/November, is forecast at a reduced 3.9 million tonnes (milled) due to water shortages in irrigation schemes, and compares to 4.8 million tonnes in year 2000 and the average of 4.6 million tonnes for the last five years. With additional coarse grains crop of about 1.9 million tonnes, total cereal production in 2001/02 is, therefore, estimated at nearly 24.6 million tonnes.
From a national perspective, overall supplies will be just sufficient to meet the consumption requirements in 2001/02 marketing year. Domestic consumption and other utilization requirements are expected to be met from current production and drawdown of large wheat stocks from last year�s good crop. Some exports of wheat due to earlier contracts are also forecast. Rice exports are anticipated to be lower than last year�s volume of 2 million tonnes. However, the prolonged drought has seriously eroded the food security of a large number of farmers, particularly in Balochistan, parts of Sindh and Cholistan in Punjab.
Tens of thousands of villagers have returned to their homes following the cessation of volcanic activity which started in late June and forced them to flee.
In early July, typhoon "Feira"(Utor) killed 121 people, injured some 130 and left 44 missing. The typhoon displaced close to 900 000 people and caused serious damage to housing and infrastructure. Some 175 000 families were affected and vast agricultural areas planted to rice and maize were flooded. One of the worst affected areas was Baguio City, where the central business district and residential areas were in knee-to-waist deep water levels. Other seriously affected areas were the Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Metro Manila. Widespread and indiscriminate logging and inadequate drainage system reportedly contribute to flooding. A detailed assessment of damage to crops and livestock is not yet available.
By mid-August, torrential rains and floods submerged dozens of villages particularly in the Negros Occidental province and the island of Mindanao, the country�s largest maize producing area. A number of casualties is reported. More than 60 000 people had to flee their homes for emergency shelter. Serious damage to crops, housing and infrastructure is reported.
Planting of this year�s main rice and maize crops was completed in July for harvesting from November. Despite flood damage, early production forecasts point to an above-average paddy output of some 12.5 million tonnes (8.2 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) and a slightly below-average maize output of about 4.1 million tonnes.
Production of wheat in 2001 is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, similar to last year, which together with stocks, will be sufficient to cover the country's requirements. The Government-guaranteed purchase price for wheat produced by wheat farmers remains at US$400 per tonne. With an annual barley production of about 200 000 tonnes, Saudi Arabia remains the world�s largest importer of barley, accounting for nearly one-third of the world barley trade. Total imports of cereals in 2001/02 (July/June) is currently estimated at 6.2 million tonnes, including about 5 million tonnes of barley.
A prolonged severe drought, the worst drought reportedly in half a century, is affecting about 1.5 million people in 7 of the 25 districts in the country. The Hambantota district in the Southern Province and one of the poorest in the country is the worst affected followed by Kurunegala, Puttlam, Monaragala, Badulla, Ratnapura and Ampara but to a lesser extent. A rapid assessment of the situation in Hambantota district shows that about 55 000 families are suffering the consequences of the drought. Paddy is the main crop grown in the district, principally in the lowlands where both major and minor irrigation schemes are used. Other crops such as chillies, green gram, groundnut, cowpea and maize are also grown in both the low lands and highlands. Due to the severe drought about 14 355 hectares of lowlands and 53 000 hectares of highlands have been abandoned since the past Yala (dry) 2000 season. In the Yala season, crops are planted between April and May for harvesting in August and September. Even major irrigation schemes, such as Walawa and Lunugamwehera, are seriously affected. Damage to livestock is also reported. The population is also facing serious water shortages for drinking and other domestic uses. Certain relief measures, including the distribution of rice (50 kg/family) has recently been initiated by the authorities.
Rains are expected in the coming Maha (wet) season, when crops are planted between October and November for harvesting in March, but many of the affected farmers will not be in a position to secure the required inputs due to the lack of cash income.
As a consequence of the drastic drop in food availability and cash income for rural households, an adequate diet is not possible for a large majority of the affected people. A local FAO assessment to determine rehabilitation requirements of the affected farmers is being conducted at present. So far, no appeal for international assistance has been made by the Government.
Three consecutive years of drought have severely affected crop and livestock production. Rainfall this year is reported to have been better than last year but pockets still remain where the rains were not enough to offset the moisture deficit in the soil.
In 1999 and 2000 a severe drought decimated cereal crops and led to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates that seriously affected household incomes. Latest reports put the 2000 wheat production at 3.1 million tonnes, about 15 percent above the previous year�s reduced crop but 9 percent below average. Barley production, which is almost entirely rainfed, is estimated at 213 000 tonnes, about 74 percent below the previous five-year average.
Drought, water shortages, dilapidated irrigation system and structural problems have worsened the food supply situation this year compared to last year when a large food deficit was experienced and food supply remained very tight throughout the year. The two main rivers, Amu and Syr, feeding the extensive irrigation system of the country, have been flowing at about 50 percent of the average levels. Precipitation levels are estimated to be about 60 percent of the average annual levels, in particular during the crucial months of March and April for wheat crop cycle. Agricultural inputs, quality seeds and fertilizers, are in short supply and generally inaccessible to grain crops. Agricultural machinery is also in short supply and inadequate to meet demand. In addition, about 40-50 percent of the water lifting equipment and about 60 percent of the heavy machinery used for canal and drainage maintenance are out of order, which have significantly compromised the efficacy and efficiency of the irrigation system.
An FAO/WFP joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) that visited the country between June and July 2001, estimated the total cereal production at 303 000 tonnes compared with 355 000 tonnes in 2000. Wheat output, the main staple crop, is estimated at 233 000 tonnes this year compared with 283 000 tonnes last year and 366 000 tonnes in 1999.
Cereal import requirement (mainly wheat) for 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 788 000 tonnes. The uncovered food aid requirement is estimated at 345 000 tonnes, after taking into account a projected commercial import capacity of 400 000 tonnes and pledged food aid of 43 000 tonnes. Food deficit of this magnitude for an impoverished population, if not addressed, would have dire consequences. Due to a similar situation last year and lack of alternative sources of income, many households have exhausted their coping strategies and will need emergency food assistance in the ensuing year.
WFP has been providing emergency food assistance to 1.6 million people under vulnerable group feeding (910 000 people) and food for asset rehabilitation (250 000 people) programmes since October 2000. The current EMOP is expected to come to an end by December 2001 by then a total of 72 468 tonnes of wheat flour, 2 050 tonnes of vegetable oil, 1 200 tonnes of pulses and 700 tonnes of salt would have been distributed.
Torrential monsoon rains and floods since the second week of August are reported to have killed 170 people, displaced more than 6 660 villagers and devastated thousands of village homes and country roads. The north-central province of Phetchabun has been the most affected area, where more than 125 people died, followed by Udon Thani, in the north-east, and Chiang Mai in the north. Emergency assistance from the Government and international organizations is being provided.
The rains affected about 200 000 hectares of farmland, but had no effect on the 2001/02 crop currently being planted. Harvesting will start from November and preliminary forecasts indicate paddy output at 24.1 million tonnes (16 million tonnes in milled equivalent), close to the 2000/01 crop. The country is the largest world rice exporter, and exports of 6.6 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (November/October) are forecast.
The output of the 2001 wheat crop, estimated at about 15 million tonnes, is about 17 percent below last year due to unfavourable weather in parts. However, normal rains in maize growing areas have allowed for an estimated output of about 2.0 million tonnes, similar to the average of the previous five years. Wheat imports in 2001/02 are forecast at about 1.5 million tonnes and maize imports at 950 000 tonnes.
Regional drought and irrigation water shortages for two years in succession are seen to result in significantly lower crop production this year than in 2000. Official estimates put winter wheat at 2 million tonnes from an area of 775 000 hectares, respectively about 17 percent and 10 percent higher than last year. The increase in area is not matched by similar reduction in official estimates of area under other crops such as cotton or virgin lands coming under cultivation. In addition, reservoirs fed by the Amu Darya, providing nearly 90 percent of the country�s irrigation needs, have been significantly lower than the previous year, while the Murghab river supplying irrigation water to Mary province have been virtually dry for most part of the cropping season this year.
FAO, therefore, tentatively forecasts grain output at about 1.5 million tonnes, similar to its estimates of 2000, including 1.4 million tonnes of wheat, 50 000 tonnes of barley, 20 000 tonnes of maize and 20 000 tonnes of rice. Grain production kept pace with last year due to some increase in area under wheat. The worst affected areas are once again Mary province (bordering Iran and Afghanistan) and Dashagouz (bordering Karaklpakstan region of Uzbekistan). The cereal import requirement for 2000/01 is estimated at about 40 000 tonnes. Despite preliminary reports on food shortages and concerns over the tight food supply situation in the country, the government has not appealed for any international assistance.
Severe water shortages and drought two years in succession have significantly impacted crop production. Water flows in the two main sources of irrigation, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers are reported to be about 40 percent of the average flows, while record hot and dry weather conditions have increased demand for irrigation water. In addition, the available scarce water is reported to be contaminated with high levels of salinity.
Latest reports confirm that this year�s total grain output would not be more than 3.4 million tonnes, about 500 000 tonnes less than the poor harvest of last year and about one million tonnes less than in 1999 when production was considered average. Wheat production is estimated at 3.2 million tonnes and rice at 100 000 tonnes, which compares with 1999 production levels of 3.6 million tonnes of wheat and 421 000 tonnes of rice. The worst affected areas are Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where the spring-sown area and output have fallen by half. Cotton, the main export crop, is seen to fall far short of the official target output of 3.9 million tonnes (cottonseed).
The import requirement in 2001/02 is tentatively estimated at about 0.9 million tonnes, roughly 293 000 tonnes higher than the preceding year�s imports. The government has appealed for international assistance in the rehabilitation of the irrigation systems, desalinisation equipment and targeted food aid in some areas. UNOCHA estimates that nearly 600 000 people particularly in Karakalpakstan and Khorzam may face food shortages unless assisted. An FAO/WFP joint mission in October 2000 found that 45 000 people in Karakalpakstan alone had experienced severe food shortages.
Torrential seasonal and typhoon rains during the first half of August resulted in heavy flooding and landslides, particularly in the Ha Tinh province in the north central coast, leaving a number of casualties and thousands homeless. The floods also destroyed thousands of acres of paddy and other crops in this province as well as in Nghe An and Quang Binh. By the end of August, heavy floods in the country�s Mekong Delta and Central Highlands had forced thousands to evacuate their homes; however, no damage was inflicted to the summer/autumn paddy crop as harvesting was virtually complete in the main growing provinces. No damage was caused either to the coffee crop grown in the highlands. The floods, however, are likely to disrupt planting of the Delta third season crop. Much will depend on the performance of September rains.
Planting of the tenth month paddy crop continues after some disruption caused by the heavy rains in the north. The 2001 paddy crop is currently forecast at 31.8 million tonnes, slightly below last year�s output but nevertheless above the average of the last 5 years.
It is reported that the Government decided to cut its export target of rice to 3.5 million tonnes from a previous 4 million tonnes as a result of the lower domestic output and unattractive prices. The lower output is principally due to farmers who have shifted part of their land to other more attractive crops.
Heavy rains and floods in late-July resulted in loss of life and caused severe damage to agricultural production and infrastructure. Provinces that are particularly affected include Hajah, Hadramout, Dhamar, Ibb and Sa�ada. The 2001 sorghum and millet crop, about to be harvested, was developing normally before the floods.
Total cereal output in 2000 is estimated at 700 000 tonnes, similar to the average for the previous five years.
The Desert Locust situation remains calm but few locusts may be present and breeding with recent winter rains along the Red Sea coastal plains.
Harvesting of 2001 maize crops started in August and the earlier forecast of a 12 percent increase in white maize production has been lowered following damages to the crop caused by a dry spell in June and July. Production is now anticipated to remain at last year�s level of about 18 000 tonnes. Harvesting of first season paddy crop is underway, and production is provisionally forecast to remain unchanged from last year�s level.
Wheat import requirements for marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are predicted to increase to 200 000 tonnes from 120 000 last year due to low carryover stocks. Imports of white maize and beans are anticipated to remain unchanged from last year. Traditionally, Costa Rica imports white maize and beans from neighbouring countries, but importers this year will be looking elsewhere following a dry spell that affected first season crops throughout Central America.
Agriculture was affected last year and early this year by what some have described as the worst drought in a decade. Moderate rains in July and August have improved the situation and favoured first season coarse grain, paddy and coffee crops due to be harvested from September. Early forecasts are that production of maize will increase by 15 percent from last year�s drought affected crop. Coffee picking started in August and output is anticipated to increase by 15 percent.
Rice imports in marketing year 2001 (Jan/Dec) are forecast to remain unchanged from last year at 440 000 tonnes.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (3 September)
Harvesting of 2001 coarse grain crops started in July and is expected to continue until early next year. Output is forecast to increase slightly from last year following increased plantings and favourable weather conditions. Harvesting of the important spring paddy crop finished in August and planting of the second season crop is underway. A bumper paddy crop of approximately 620 000 tonnes is anticipated, representing a 3 percent increase from the level of last year. A slight increase in the production of plantain, yucca, beans and poultry is also reported.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2000/01 (July/June) are anticipated to reach 305 000 tonnes, while yellow maize imports (used as feed) are expected to remain unchanged from last year at some 700 000 tonnes.
The strong earthquakes that hit the country in January and February, damaging transport infrastructure and housing, and hampering the transport and marketing of produce by the farmers, led to severe resource constraints for the cultivation of third season crops in January and February. FAO, in collaboration with the Government, supplied agricultural inputs for the planting of first season crops in May and June. However, early estimates of a normal maize crop from the first and most important season have been lowered by 18 percent following drought, and aggregate cereal production is forecast to decrease by 7 percent from last year. Import requirements of white maize for marketing year 2001/02 are estimated to increase by 50 000 tonnes over last year, and which is expected to be covered by commercial imports.
The international community was already providing food aid from local purchases to 200 000 victims of the earthquake before the impact of drought. WFP, in collaboration with the Government, is assisting 25 000 drought affected families in 31 districts, while preparations to assist an additional 10 000 families in 29 districts in collaboration with NGO partners are underway.
Rains in June were 60 percent lower than normal and some 8 percent of the area planted to maize and beans in the central and eastern departments of the country was lost. About 13 000 subsistence farms reportedly suffered at least 80 percent losses of first season crops in localized areas. Aggregate cereal production in 2001 is forecast to decrease by 9 percent from last year�s average crop. The government has declared a state of emergency in the affected departments and the international community is providing food assistance to the affected population with local purchases. Although food prices have shown signs of stabilization with the arrival of first season crops on the market, an increase in the demand for maize and beans from neighbouring El Salvador and Costa Rica could result in price increases before the end of the year.
Prospects for the first season cereal and bean crops, now being harvested, are promising. Planting of second season paddy crops started in August and is expected to continue during September. Last year, the country was affected by drought, but the food situation is now stabilizing following favourable weather conditions for crop development during May, June and July. However, a deterioration of the NDVI index of the maize producing provinces of Sud and Grand Anse and bean producing areas east of Port-au-Prince, is observed during August. Food assistance from the international community continues to be distributed through development projects to some sectors of the population.
Honduras was the country most affected by Hurricane �Mitch� in 1998, and some 250 000 people were still receiving food aid until June this year, when the country was hit by drought. The onset of dry spells in June adversely affected crops during the early stages of development. Severe losses are reported for some 28 000 farmers living in central and southern areas of the country. An estimated 42 000 hectares of maize were lost (20 percent of the total planted area), with an expected fall in production of 38 000 tonnes. Additionally, 20 000 hectares of sorghum and 8 000 hectares of beans were lost. The Government used its strategic reserves of maize and beans to improve market supply of basic grains, and the WFP has distributed over 1 000 tonnes of food among the drought affected population. Despite the drought damage, aggregate cereal production in 2001 is forecast to fall by only 2.6 percent from last year�s slightly below average crop, provided a normal second season crop is obtained.
Harvesting of 2001 rain-fed summer maize crops started in September and is expected to continue until January. Last year maize crops were affected by a dry spell and yields were lower than originally estimated. This year the crop yet again received lower than average rain throughout the season, and earlier forecasts of an increase in maize production due to increased plantings are now being questioned. Early forecasts of an average paddy crop to be harvested from September, and most of which is rain-fed, may also need reviewing later in the year.
Cereal imports in marketing year 2000/01 (July/June) are expected to be about 2.8 million tonnes of wheat, 5.6 million tonnes of maize and 4.8 million tonnes of sorghum. Rice import in marketing year 2000/01 (Jan/Dec) are estimated at 440 000 tonnes.
Western parts of Nicaragua, which were affected in October 1998 by Hurricane �Mitch�, were this summer affected by drought. Some 45 000 farmers have reportedly lost at least 50 percent of their crops in Le�n and Chinandega departments. For the country as a whole, early estimates of a bumper maize crop in 2001 have been revised downwards by 15 percent, and production is currently forecast at 272 000 tonnes, some 8 percent lower than last year�s drought affected crop. Despite the fall in production, the level of aggregate cereal imports is not expected to increase substantially. Maize imports in marketing year 2001/02 (Jul/Jun) are estimated at 90 000 tonnes, 10 percent higher than last year. Rice import requirements in marketing year 2001 (Jan/Dec) are expected to remain unchanged from the last five year�s average of 80 000 tonnes.
The country is not expected to face an exceptional food emergency in the upcoming months. However, the food situation of the affected rural population is particularly difficult because of the widespread closure of coffee plantations throughout the country. The closing is due to low international coffee prices and low expected yields which make production unprofitable. The coping strategies currently used include the temporary migration of women to the cities in search of work for domestic services and of men for selfemployment in the informal sector. WFP is providing food aid from local purchases to 9 000 drought-affected victims, but this number is expected to increase in the next few weeks. FAO, in collaboration with the Government of Nicaragua, is providing 7 000 farmers with agricultural inputs for second season crops currently being planted.
A drought hit Central America during the early months of the rainy season. The most affected areas of Panama are the peninsula of Azuero the province of Cocl� and coastal areas of the Gulf. Some 2 000 heads of cattle were lost and paddy production is expected to decline from last year. The drought did not allow the timely preparation of the soil for planting paddy on schedule, and the total area planted is lower than last year. The drought also affected coffee, plantain and banana plantations.
The area planted to wheat this year is forecast at 7.2 million hectares, 90 percent of which was already sown by the end of August. Favourable winter weather conditions are helping crop development and production is provisionally estimated to reach 18.0 million tonnes, some 9 percent higher than last year. The area planted to barley is also expected to be some 40 percent higher than last year. Maize harvest finished in June and current estimates indicate an output of 15.7 million tonnes, about 8 percent lower than last year. Official sources indicate that the area harvested to paddy reached 134 000 hectares, and output is estimated at 640 000 tonnes, 30 percent lower than last year.
Winter crops growing in the valleys of Santa Cruz are developing normally. Water reservoirs at the start of winter were full from abundant summer rains, and water levels are expected to improve this spring from defrosting following a particularly intense winter of heavy snowing. The area planted to winter crops remains unchanged from last year, with 110 000 hectares of wheat, 131 000 hectares of potatoes and 30 000 hectares of beans. In the highlands, floods earlier this year damaged an estimated 40 000 hectares of subsistence farmer crops. The food supply situation is expected to tighten because no crops are planted in the highlands during winter and farmers have to wait until May for the next crop. The departments most affected by the floods were La Paz, Cochabamba, Potos� and Oruro. Official sources also indicate that there is a low availability of seeds for the forthcoming summer season crop due to be planted in October and November.
Wheat imports are estimated at about 300 000 tonnes in the 2000/01 (July/June) marketing year. Wheat import requirements in the current marketing year are forecast in excess of 300 000 tonnes.
Cereal crops are in good conditions in the southern states of Brazil. Wheat output is forecast at 3.4 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes last year) due to a 57 percent increase in plantings and normal winter weather. The area planted to second season maize (safrinha) has been revised upwards; output is forecast to increase 59 percent from last year and reach 6.1 million tonnes. The outlook for crops in the Northeast is not favourable. SUDENE, the Government development agency for the northeast, informs that during July and August very dry weather conditions prevailed. More dry weather is expected for the semester that starts in September. Second season bean crops were severely affected by drought. IBGE, the Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography, estimates that the losses represent 11 percent of the crop in Ceara, 57 percent in Rio Grande du Norte and 85 percent in Paraiba. The losses in the important producing state of Bahia have not yet been quantified. The dry weather is expected to continue until November. Early forecast of 7 million tonnes of wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) remain unchanged despite the anticipated increase in production.
Planting intentions of 438 000 hectares to wheat this winter may not materialize following a delay in planting caused by the intensive rains of June and July. Planting intentions for white maize remain unchanged from last year, and for yellow maize increase 14 percent. Harvesting of 2001 paddy crops finished in April and output is revised upwards from previous estimates to 140 000 tonnes. Low paddy prices are not attractive to farmers and planting intentions decrease almost 30 percent from an estimated 26 000 hectares planted last year.
Import requirements for the marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at 300 000 tonnes of wheat, 1.1 million tonnes of maize (mostly yellow) and 70 000 tonnes of rice.
Weather conditions in recent months have been adequate for the normal development of crops throughout the country. Harvesting of the main paddy crop started in August and is expected to continue throughout September. Farm-gate paddy prices were already low before the main harvest, and to protect farmers the government has stopped rice imports until next year. The Government suspended in August peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN), the second largest guerrilla movement, and a recent UN inter-agency mission that visited the country concluded that displacement has increased. The mission observed an increase in the numbers, geographical extension and political complexities of the displacement phenomenon, and insisted that the affected populations are in urgent need of protection and humanitarian assistance.
Imports in marketing year 2000/01 (July/June) are estimated at 1.2 million tonnes of wheat and 2.1 million tonnes of maize, mainly for feed. Import requirements of both commodities in the next marketing year are forecast to increase by about 5 percent.
Winter rains some 30 percent lower than normal affected the development of cereal crops in the Andean provinces of Pichincha, Tungurahua, Azuay and Chimborazo, and yields are expected to be 20 percent lower than last year. Reports indicate that potato crops were not affected and that the yields obtained are average. Elsewhere the weather was adequate for the normal development of crops. Intensive rains during June in Amazonian provinces caused localized floods that affected 6 000 hectares of staple crops of subsistence farmers. The volcano Tungurahua increased its activity early in August and its ash forced the evacuation of approximately 20 000 people and 16 000 head of cattle. Some 6 000 cattle were killed and about 48 000 hectares of pastures and crop lands were damaged in the provinces of Tungurahua and Chimborazo. The international community is providing food assistance to the affected population. The volcanic activity decreased at the end of August and some families are already returning to their homes.
Import requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are estimated at 450 000 tonnes of wheat and 200 000 tonnes of maize.
An earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the Richter Scale hit southern Peru on 23 June 2001, affecting the departments of Arequipa, Moquegua, Tacna and Ayacucho. The earthquake damaged the irrigation system of approximately 116 000 hectares of 60 000 farmers. Tidal waves also destroyed about 2000 hectares of coastal crops, including beans, maize, potatoes and other vegetables, and damaged the fishing equipment of 1000 small fisher folks. No important damage to the most important commercial crop cultivated in the area (paddy) is reported, as its harvest was almost finished by the time the quake occurred. For the country as a whole, paddy output is provisionally estimated to increase 10 percent from last year due to larger planting and an abundant water supply.
Import requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are estimated at 1.3 million tonnes of wheat and 1 million tonnes of maize (mostly yellow).
The area planted to wheat has been revised downwards to 150 000 hectares following a delay in soil preparation due to intensive rains in early winter and financial constraints. This area represents an increase of 22 percent from the area planted last year. An estimated 115 000 hectares of barley have been planted, representing a 31 percent increase from last year. Both crops were favoured by a cold and rainy winter and they look in good conditions. Heavy rains in August forced the evacuation of about 3 000 people in the northern department of Artigas. Earlier this year, heavy rains in June also caused localized floods and left 8 000 people homeless in the same area.
Harvesting of maize started in July and is expected to continue until early next year. Most of the maize planted is white and used as food. Last year white maize production increased substantially and the government was forced to intervene to sustain producer prices. Output in 2002 is provisionally estimated to be 10 percent lower than the 1.1 million tonnes obtained in 2001 following lower plantings.
Both wheat and yellow maize imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are expected to be around 1.3 million tonnes each.
In the EC, rain showers and warm temperatures in late August and early September have been favourable for the summer maize crop but caused some disruptions to small grains harvesting, which is still not complete in some parts, particularly in the north. Latest information continues to point to a smaller aggregate cereal harvest for the Community in 2001 of 204 million tonnes, compared to 217 million tonnes last year. Total wheat production is now estimated at about 92.6 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes down from the 97 million tonnes forecast before the summer, and 13 million tonnes less than the 2000 crop. The bulk of the decrease in wheat output has occurred in France, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy due to a combination of reduced plantings and adverse weather. With regard to coarse grains, the forecast of the Community�s aggregate output in 2001 has been revised upward slightly over the past two months, to about 109 million tonnes, similar to the previous year�s level. The latest revision mostly reflects the relatively favourable weather conditions for the summer maize crops in recent weeks. The good yield prospects for maize, and the increased area sown are expected to lead to an almost 5 percent increase in maize output, while outputs of barley and oats are expected to be down this year.
Cereal production in 2001 is tentatively estimated to remain around 550 000 to 600 000 tonnes, similar to the previous year and the normal level over the past few years. Given the currently limited returns available to farmers for cereals, investment in agriculture is being directed to more lucrative non-cereal crops and fluctuations in cereal area and production tend to be influenced mostly by weather factors. The 2000/01 season has been relatively favourable for cereal crops.
Harvesting of spring grains is well underway and output is set to surpass last year�s levels. FAO tentatively forecasts grain production at 5 million tonnes, about 200 000 tonnes more than last year�s estimates. Grain output mainly comprises of barley, rye, wheat and oats, 1.75, 1.5, 0.75 and 0.6 million tonnes, respectively. Official forecasts, however, put grain output at 6 million tonnes, which is not supported by the area, yield and input supply data.
Cereal imports, mainly from the CIS, is seen at 691 000 tonnes this year compared with 734 000 tonnes in 2000/01 marketing year. Wheat imports account for nearly 80 percent of the total cereal imports.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (3 September)
May floods and hail in northern region of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the adjacent areas of Republica Serbska damaged large areas of crops and livelihoods. An FAO mission to north-eastern region was fielded late July to assess the damages caused by floods and hail. The worst affected areas were Tuzla, Zenica, Doboj, Posavina and Brcko. More than 14 640 households have been affected by floods, while crop damages in the affected areas range between 15 and 35 percent of the cropped area. FAO, therefore, forecasts cereal production for 2001 at 924 000 tonnes similar to the drought affected production levels of the preceding year. The overall effect on grain production is limited because the floods partially affected maize, while wheat was severely affected but is not the major crop in the affected region.
Cereal import in 2001/02 is expected to remain at 2000/01 levels, 290 000 tonnes including 100 000 tonnes in food aid.
The 2001 cereal crop has increased in Bulgaria reflecting an increase in plantings and an improvement in weather conditions compared to 2000. Nevertheless, the weather throughout the season remained very variable across the country and generally far from favourable, especially in the major producing areas. The 2001 wheat output is now tentatively estimated at about 3.5 million tonnes: although harvested area has undoubtedly increased compared to 2000, yields are reported to be very varied across regions leading to some uncertainty over the level of the country�s aggregate crop. Regarding the summer maize crop, there is uncertainty over the final area to be harvested after drought wiped out some areas again this year but, overall, final output could be slightly up from last year at about 1.1 million tonnes.
Preliminary estimates indicate that cereal output in 2001 will improve from a drought-reduced harvest the previous year. Heavy rains in June affected wheat crop and the current estimates show that output may not exceed 912 000 tonnes down from the 2000 estimate of 929 000 tonnes. Cereal output, however, is estimated at 3 million tonnes compared to 2.6 million tonnes in 2000. Maize output is expected to increase by 700 000 tonnes this year compared with 2000. Grain exports are seen at 185 000 tonnes (2000: 50 000 tonnes), including 15 000 tonnes of wheat and 170 000 tonnes of maize.
The 2001 cereal harvest in the Czech Republic is estimated to reach 7.2 million tonnes in 2001, about 12 percent up from last year and the largest crop since 1991. Increased plantings and generally favourable weather conditions through the growing season are the main reasons for the increase. However, the full impact of heavy rains and storms during the harvest period is not yet known and apart from some likely impact on the quality of this year�s grain crops the final output estimate may be reduced somewhat in the coming weeks.
The outlook for 2001-grain harvest is satisfactory and expected to match the good harvest of the preceding year. Grain output is estimated at 0.6 million tonnes (similar to 2000) including 140 000 tonnes of wheat 275 000 tonnes of barley and 100 000 tonnes of oats. Cereal import in 2001/02 marketing year is seen at 197 000 tonnes (2000: 253 000 tonnes), including 140 000 tonnes of wheat and 40 000 tonnes of barley.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (10 September)
In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, continuing dry weather in 2001 has reduced cereal output further from last year�s already low level. Aggregate output could fall well below 500 000 tonnes with wheat accounting for about 200 000 tonnes, barley 100 000 tonnes and maize 100 000 tonnes.
Cereal output in Hungary has recovered significantly after last year�s drought. Wheat production is now estimated at about 5 million tonnes, compared to 3.7 million tonnes in 2000. However, it is reported that a period of heavy rainfall during harvest has brought down the quality of much of this year�s crop and the percentage of feed wheat in the overall harvest is larger than normal. The summer rainfall was very beneficial for the maize crop, however, and the maize output this year is expected to exceed 7 million tonnes, after a reduced crop of less than 5 million tonnes last year. In aggregate the 2001 cereal output is expected to be about 14 million tonnes, one of the largest crops in the past decade.
Good precipitation both in winter and spring provided favourable conditions for crop production. FAO tentatively forecasts grain output at 909 000 tonnes from an area of 420 000 hectares, similar to 2000 estimates. Cereal output this year includes 390 000 tonnes of wheat, 270 000 tonnes of barley and 120 000 tonnes of rye. Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year is estimated at 45 000 tonnes, similar to the preceding year and half of the imports in 1999/00. Cereal imports are mainly of food quality.
The outlook for 2001 harvest is satisfactory, thanks to adequate precipitation and soil moisture. Grain output is estimated at 2.7 million tonnes, similar to the amount harvested in 2000. Wheat and barley this year account for 2 million tonnes of the total grains, while rye output is 450 000 followed by 90 000 tonnes of pulses and 85 000 tonnes of oats. Exports are estimated to remain at last year�s levels, 110 000 tonnes, mainly wheat (100 000 tonnes) and barely (10 000 tonnes).
Prospects for grain production this year are satisfactory and set to reach 2.6 million tonnes, some 600 000 tonnes higher than the preceding year. Total grains include more than 1 million tonnes of wheat, 1.2 million tonnes of maize and 260 000 tonnes of barley.
Polish cereal production has recovered significantly in 2001 after last year�s reduced crop reflecting favourable weather conditions, which allowed a return to normal yields. The total wheat crop is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes, some 10 percent up from 2000. The country�s important rye crop has also recovered significantly to over 5 million tonnes, compared to just 4 million tonnes last year, and barley output is put 29 percent up at about 3.6 million tonnes . In aggregate, total cereal production is estimated at about 26 million tonnes, some 16 percent up from 2000 and above the average of the past five years
Cereal production in 2001 has recovered significantly from the severely drought reduced crop last year. The latest official estimate puts the total 2001 wheat crop at 7.8 million tonnes, more than 3 million tonnes up from 2000 as a result of increased plantings as well as much more favourable weather conditions. Some unofficial sources indicate that the wheat crop may not be quite this large but nevertheless all sources quote figures representing an increase of at least 50 percent from the previous year. The summer maize crop has again been affected by dry conditions, which set-in from early July. However, apart from the most affected areas in southeastern parts of the country, the damage has not been as large as last year when drought affected the entire cropping season. Unofficial estimates put the maize crop at about 6 to 7 million tonnes this year compared to just 4.2 million tonnes in 2000. Given the current outlook for supply and demand in the 2001/02 marketing year Romania is not expected to import significant quantities of cereals have could have some exportable surplus of wheat, barley and maize.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (7 September)
Spring harvesting is well underway and proceeding at a significantly faster rate compared to last year. FAO forecasts for this year�s grain harvest stands at about 74 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes higher than the preceding year (2000: 71 million tonnes). Favourable growing conditions with adequate soil moistures for both spring and winter crops have contributed to higher yields, in particular in the Central Regions and Volga river basin. Given that favourable weather conditions persist and adequate harvesting machinery is available, it is likely that the forecast grain output from nearly 48 million hectares of planted area will be achieved (2000: 46 million hectares under grains). Floods and torrential rains in parts of Siberia and the Far Eastern regions have caused hardship and damage to property but is unlikely to affect the overall level of grain production.
Grain prices have continued to fall during the past few months, confirming the outlook for a better harvest. Cereal imports are seen to decline to 2.4 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (1999/00: 8.4 million tonnes) due to lower domestic prices and better harvests. Cereal export, mainly wheat and barley, is expected to reach 1.53 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (1999/00: 0.64 million tonnes).
Civil strife in Chechnya continues to disrupt life and crop production. Conflict-affected and displaced persons in Chechnya and Ingushetia depend on WFP and NGOs for basic and complementary food assistance. WFP has provided about 20,500 tonnes of food commodities to 268,000 people in both the republics between January and August 2001.
SLOVAK REPUBLIC (10 September)
Cereal output in the Slovak Republic is expected to recover completely from last year�s drought-affected low level. The bulk of the harvest was reported to be completed by late August, and aggregate cereal output is expected to reach almost 3 million tonnes. Of the total, wheat is expected to account for about 2 million tonnes.
Cereal production in 2001 has recovered after the affects of drought in the previous year. Wheat output is estimated at about 135 000 tonnes, of which about 120 000 tonnes is expected to be milling quality.
Grain harvesting is nearly complete, except for maize and in the Western regions of the country. FAO tentatively forecasts this year�s grain output at 31 million tonnes, nearly 8 million tonnes more than FAO's estimates for 2000. The 2001 forecast includes 18 million tonnes of wheat, 6.6 million tonnes of barley and 3 million tonnes of maize. However, the final estimate will depend on the progress of harvests, weather conditions and maize production. Early reports indicate that due to cool, rainy weather in May-June and excessively hot weather in July, maize output may be significantly lower than expected. Official estimates this year show total grain output at about 35 million tonnes with an average yield of 2.99 tonnes per hectare (2000: 1.99 tonnes/ha).
Given that the production targets materialize, cereal exports in 2001/02 could reach nearly 5 million tonnes (2000/01: 1.7 million tonnes), while imports are expected to decline from about 880 000 tonnes in 2000/01 to 150 000 tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (5 September)
An FAO/WFP joint crop and food supply assessment mission visited Serbia during the last week of June 2001. Agricultural production during the 2000/01 cropping season has witnessed a sharp recovery from a record low level last year. Optimal planting, availability of fuel and other farm inputs, a mild winter, widespread rains in spring and early summer as well as a virtually insect, pest and disease-free year have contributed to the sharp recovery of crop production this year. FAO estimates grain production this year at about 8.8 million tonnes (2000: 5.2 million tonnes), including 2.9 million tonnes of wheat and 5.5 million tonnes of maize. On average wheat yields increased by about 1 tonne per hectare to 3.8 tonnes compared with 2000 yields, while maize yields on average increased from 3.15 tonnes per hectare in 2000 to 4.5 tonnes per hectares in 2001.
Given the current domestic cereal utilization and production, an estimated surplus of about 700 000 tonnes will be available for exports, including 400 000 tonnes of wheat and 300 000 tonnes of maize. The government has authorized the export of about 115 150 tonnes of wheat and 150 000 tonne of maize for the second half of 2001.
WFP is providing food assistance to 575 000 beneficiaries, comprising of 215 000 refugees and 360 000 social cases. Following a joint WFP/UNHCR food needs assessment mission this year, the strategy is to continuously phase out food assistance programme by the end of 2002. The UNHCR and ECHO fresh food programmes will soon phase out, while the ICRC Kitchen Soup program was to be handed over to the Serbian Red Cross in July 2001.
Prospects for the 2001 cereal crops deteriorated significantly during July and August due to drought in the main producing areas. As of late August, the winter wheat harvest was well underway and yields so far are reported to be well below average. Latest official estimates now put the aggregate wheat output in 2001 at 21.5 million tonnes, 20 percent down from last year�s good crop and below average, despite a similar area sown. For barley, plantings were reduced and yields are estimated to be down, so the 2001 crop is estimated well below last year�s and the average at just 11.6 million tonnes. By contrast, an increased in the maize crop is forecast, by over 20 percent, to about 8.4 million tonnes.
The latest USDA Crop Production report in September, put total wheat production in the United States in 2001 at 54 million tonnes, some 10 percent down from the previous year and well below average, mostly reflecting a further decline in plantings to the smallest area since 1971. As of early September the winter wheat planting for the 2002 crop was just getting underway in some southern states, while the maize harvest was just starting in the corn belt. Aggregate coarse grains output in 2001 is now forecast at 257 million tonnes, about 7 percent down from the previous year. Of the total, maize would account for 235 million tonnes, compared to 253 million tonnes a year earlier.
Some favourable rains in July and August improved prospects for the winter crops after a prolonged period of dry weather during the latter stages of planting and the establishment period. Latest official forecasts tentatively put the 2001 wheat crop at 20.1 million tonnes, compared to 21.2 million tonnes in 2000. The latest forecast is based on significantly smaller yields than those projected at the onset of planting. Regarding barley, the second most important winter cereal crop, output is forecast to increase marginally to 5.9 million tonnes, about 5 percent up from last year, as a result of expanded area. Barley has an extended planting window and is normally favoured by farmers when the planting season is late as in the case of this year.
PAPUA NEW GUINEA (18 September)
Flooding caused by heavy monsoon rains and tidal waves in August caused extensive damage to crops in several islands, particularly in mainland Bougainville. Food shortages are reported to be affecting some 50 000 Bougainvilleans and Carterets islanders. An urgent appeal for assistance has been issued to the National Government by the Bougainville provincial administration.
Dry weather conditions in August resulted in sharply reduced water availability on the island. The river that supplies water to Apia, the capital, reached extremely low levels, raising concerns for sections of the population.