• Since 1985 Portugal has grown at an average rate of 3.8 percent per annum, well above the European average, and has shifted from 53 percent of the average European income to 74 percent.
• Unfortunately in 2001 the performance of the Portuguese economy was less favourable and all indicators point to a private consumption level in 2001 lower than that recorded in the corresponding periods in 2000, with particular emphasis on the slowdown of investment in construction.
• It is estimated that GDP, after showing a growth of 3.5 percent in 2000, has grown no more than between 1.5 percent and 2 percent in 2001.
• A further slowdown of the economic activity in Portugal is anticipated for 2002 and forecasts point to a growth of GDP between 1 percent and 1.75 percent.
• Exports of goods and services, after growth in 2001 (an increase between 4.25 percent and 5.25 percent compared to 2000) should still achieve remarkable growth in 2002, between 3 percent and 4.5 percent (approximately 1 percent less than in 2001).
• Imports should equally see a slowdown in 2002 (between 0 and 3 percent compared to 2001, after having grown between 1.25 percent and 3.25 percent in 2001) that may lead to an improvement of the trade balance in goods and services.
• In 2001 the inflation rate reached 4.4 percent but a reduction to a level between 2.2 percent and 3.2 percent is anticipated for 2002.
• Unemployment remained quite low in 2001 and may amount to between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent in 2002.
• Presently, the greatest problem for the Portuguese economy is the evident imbalance of public accounts which, as a result of high public spending and reduced returns (due to economy slowdown), led to a deficit of 2.2 percent. (As a consequence of the Stability Pact this deficit should be zero within three years.)
• Even so, Portugal benefits from a debt ratio of 55 percent in relation to GDP, which is much lower than the European average.
Forest fires continue to be a major concern in Portugal and in 2001, although the summer was not exceedingly hot or dry, almost 100 000 ha were burned, 40 000 ha of which were forest stands.
The main raw materials and products produced and traded by the Portuguese forest products sector is summarized in the following table where 2000 (actual figures), 2001 and 2002 (estimates) are shown.
Production |
Imports |
Exports | ||
thousand m3 | ||||
2000 |
2 961 |
10 |
22 | |
Coniferous logs |
2001 |
2 413 |
- |
- |
2002 |
2 300 |
- |
- | |
2000 |
296 |
484 a) |
5 | |
Non-coniferous logs |
2001 |
269 |
450 a) |
- |
2002 |
250 |
420 |
- | |
2000 |
3 899 |
566 |
400 | |
Non-coniferous pulpwood |
2001 |
4 634 |
350 |
580 |
2002 |
4 600 |
300 |
650 | |
2000 |
1 080 |
50 |
325 | |
Coniferous sawnwood |
2001 |
1 071 |
42 |
310 |
2002 |
1 060 |
40 |
320 | |
2000 |
1 464 |
- |
950 | |
Bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp b) |
2001 |
1 394 |
- |
816 |
2002 |
1 350 |
- |
780 | |
2000 |
1 290 |
606 |
834 | |
Total paper and board b) |
2001 |
1 406 |
718 |
1 053 |
2002 |
1 450 |
700 |
1 100 | |
2000 |
700 |
295 |
593 | |
Printing and writing paper b) |
2001 |
865 |
213 |
774 |
2002 |
930 |
200 |
830 | |
2000 |
722 |
87 |
334 | |
Particle board |
2001 |
770 |
70 |
350 |
2002 |
795 |
70 |
360 | |
2000 |
534 c) |
73 |
350 | |
Fibreboard |
2001 |
520 c) |
68 |
346 |
2002 |
530 c) |
60 |
350 | |
a) 75 percent is tropical timber
b) thousand t
c) 85 percent is MDF
• The sawnwood industry continued to experience very low levels in production capacity use (estimated between 65 percent and 70 percent) in 2001 and no significant changes are anticipated for 2002 since the continuation of strong competition is expected (in coniferous sawnwood) on the part of the East European countries.
• A new sawmill with an installed capacity quite above the national average started operating in 2001, leading to the likely shutdown of 20 to 30 small-sized units operating in the same area and in the same product range (pallets and construction).
• The modernization of the already important industry of wood panels has continued in 2001 and a new particle board production line has come on line.
• In 2001 the use of the production capacity for fibreboard particles (MDF) was close to 95 percent and no significant changes are anticipated for 2002.
• Worthy of mention is the significant increase in 2001 of the internal offer in pulpwood from hardwood species (eucalyptus), after several years of restricted removals in order to recover the sustainability of this resource.
• Along with this increase in the internal offer, an important decrease in imports (now less necessary) has occurred.
• Since the Iberian Peninsula is short on this type of raw material, a strong increase in the purchase of eucalyptus in Portugal by the Spanish industry occurred simultaneously in 2001.
• The pulp industry has shown poor results in 2001 as a consequence of the world market trend but fully integrated pulp/paper units were able to verify the adequacy of their integration strategy.
• Equally worthy of notice is the substantial growth in 2001 of the printing and writing paper production due to the coming on line of Soporcel's PM2. Soporcel is now integrating its market pulp which was previously exported.
• A 27 percent growth of greenhouse gas emissions was assigned to Portugal within the scope of the European Union quota, relating to 1990. The most recent studies indicate that such a level may have been already reached in 2000/2001.
• The government has charged a Committee (mainly composed of University representatives) with the preparation of the National Programme for Climate Change, which was disclosed for public discussion early in 2002.
• The paper industry, through its Association, has actively contributed to the preparation of the document and has been involved with other forest products associations in public discussions.
• The main concern of the paper industry is to achieve recognition of its efforts and investments prior to 1990, which already placed it at high levels of energetic efficiency and low levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Additional reductions will only be possible, in the future, through costly investments (with marginal efficiency) and this situation cannot result in the penalization (prohibition) of this industry's natural expansion.
• The industry sees good opportunities in the use of biomass for energetic purposes (a practice commonly used today in the sector) but regards with apprehension the possibility of subsidies stimulating the demand for biomass to such levels that they may hinder the normal use of wood as raw material for forest industries.
• The industry in Portugal defends that all incentives towards carbon sequestration in forests should only be made available if and when the forest owner promotes their timely and appropriate felling (not limiting, by way of the carbon, the normal availability of wood as industrial raw material).
• The Portuguese forest is mainly privately owned (85 percent) and small-sized on average, with scarce cases of active and professional forest management (except for paper company managed properties - approximately 260 000 hectares).
• This absence of professional management and a poor associative activity of forest owners have led to a relative lack of interest for sustainable forest management issues and for forest certification.
• The forest products industries (pulp, paper and wood panels) have played a major role in stimulating the preparation work for a national forest management standard and, at the end of 2001, a Portuguese standard (integrated in the national quality system) was presented for public discussion.
• In the meantime, a National Council for the Wood Chain was appointed, affiliated to the Pan-European Forest Certification (PEFC) Scheme with a view to obtaining the recognition of the above-mentioned Portuguese standard by the PEFC.
• Such recognition should occur in 2002 but only the forest areas under paper industry professional management will be in a position to be certified.
• A substantial portion of the cork oak forest (approximately 600 000 hectares) may come to obtain, at a later date, its respective certification.
• Within this framework, it is believed that a deepening of the Criteria and Indicators resulting from the Lisbon Conference of the Pan-European Process may come to play an important part should the State (the Forest Public Administration) promote the adoption and widespread use of the Portuguese standard.
• The general position of the economic agents related to the wood chain is that the mutual recognition of different credible certification schemes will be beneficial to all those concerned in the forest products market.
• Portugal believes in the usefulness of a voluntary and credible certification but strongly opposes any monopoly of forest certification.