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6.4 Model description and parameters

Table 6.31. End of processing.

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or Equation

Prevalence

Prev



Min

Max



Fixed value

0

1



Concentration

Conc

MPN/bird

Cumulative





Table 6.32. Transport from processing plant to retail [not simulated in current model]

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or Equation

Transport temperature

T_pr

degree C


Min

Max



Uniform





Transport time

t_pr

hours


Min

Max

CF


Correlated uniform



-0.75


Minimum growth temperature

Tmin_pr

degree C

Constant

10




Salt concentration

Slt_pr

%

Constant

1.9




Log growth per hour

LGR_pr

log/hr

= EXP(-6.2251-(0.0114*Slt_pr) +(0.3234*T_pr) +(0.002*(Slt_pr*T_pr)) -(0.0085*(Slt_pr*Slt_pr)) -(0.0045*T_pr*T_pr)))

Total log growth at retail

LG_pr

log

= IF(T_pr<Tmin_pr,0,t_pr*LGR_pr)

Table 6.33. Storage at retail

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or Equation

Retail temperature

Rtl_Temp

degree C


Mean

SD

Min

Max

Truncated Normal

4

2.8

-7.2

10

Retail time

Rtl_Time

days


Mean

Max

CF


Correlated Uniform

2

7

-0.75


Minimum growth temperature

MGT

degree C

Constant

10




Salt concentration

NaCl

%

Constant

1.9




Log growth per hour

LogSGR_Rtl

log/hr

=EXP(-6.2251 -(0.0114*NaCl) +(0.3234*Rtl_Temp) +(0.002*(NaCl*Rtl_Temp)) -(0.0085*(NaCl*NaCl)) -(0.0045*(Rtl_Temp*Rtl_Temp)))

Total Log growth at retail

Rtl_growth

log

=IF(Rtl_Temp<MGT.0.Rtl_Time*24*LogSGR_Rtl)

Table 6.34. Transport from retail to home

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or Equation

Ambient temperature during transport

Trans_Temp

degree C


Pert

Min

ML

Max



0

13

24


Maximum change in temperature during transport

TransMax

degree C

= Trans_Temp -Rtl_Temp

Potential change in temperature during transport

Trans_DTemp1

degree C

Truncated Normal

Mean

SD

Min

Max


3.72

2.82

0

TransMax

Change in temperature during transport

Trans_Dtemp2

degree C

=IF(Trans_Temp -Rtl_Temp<=0,0,Trans_DTemp1

Chicken temperature after transport

Post_Trans_Temp

degree C

=Rtl_Temp +Trans_DTemp2

Average transport temperature

Avg_Trans_ Temp

degree C

=Average(Rtl_Temp, Post_Trans_Temp)

Transport time

Trans_Time

Minutes

Correlated Cumulative

Min

Max

CF



5

240

-0.75


Log growth per hour

LogSGR_Trans

log/hr

=EXP(-6.2251 -(0.0114*NaCl) +(0.3234*Avg_Trans_Temp) +(0.002*(NaCL*Avg_Trans_Temp (0.0085*(NaCL*NaCL)) -(0.0045*(Avg_Trans_Temp* Avg_Trans_Temp)))

Total log growth during transport

Trans_growth

log

=IF(Avg_Trans_Temp<MGT,0,Trans_Time/60*LogSGR_Trans)

Table 6.35. Storage at home

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or Equation

Home storage temperature

Home_Temp

degree C


Mean

SD

Min

Max

Truncated Normal

4

2.65

-6.1

21.1

Home storage time

Home_Time

days


Min

ML

Max

CF

Correlated PERT

0

2

5

-0.75

Log growth per hour

LogSGR_Home

log/hr

=EXP(-6.2251 -(0.0114*NaCL) +(0.3234*Home_Temp) +(0.002*(NaCl*Home_Temp)) -(0.0085*(NaCl*NaCL)) -(0.0045*(Home_Temp*Home_Temp)))

Total log growth in home

Home_growth

log

+IF(Home_Temp<MGT,0,Home_Time*24*LogSGR_Home)

Total log growth in storage, transport and home

Growth

log

Rtl_growth + Trans-growth + Home_growth

Table 6.36. Cross-contamination during preparation

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or equation

Number of organisms on bird

Num

cells

=IF(Conc=0,0,10^Conc)

Chickens Þ Hands

Transfer from chicken to hands?

XCH

-

=IF(Num=0,0,1)




Proportion transferred from chicken

Pop_CH

proportion

Pert

Min

ML

Max




0

0.1

0.15

Number on hands

Num_H

cell

=IF(XCH=0,0,Num*Prop_CH)

Number left on chicken

Num_C1

cell

=Num -Num_H

Hands Þ Other food

Probability that hands are not washed

HW_Prob

-

Beta

alpha

beta





64

46


Hands not washed?

HW

-

=binomial(1,HW_Prob)

Proportion transferred from hands

Prop_HF

-

Pert

Min

ML

Max




0.00

0.10

0.15

Number on other foods via hands

Num_OF1

-

=IF(HW=0,0,Num_H*Prop_HF)

Chickens Þ Board

Transfer from chicken to board

XCB

-

=IF(Num=0,0,1)

Proportion transferred from chicken to board

Prop_CB

proportion


Min

ML

Max



Pert

0

0.1

0.15

Number on board

Num_B

cell

=IF(XCB=0,0,Num*Prop_CB)

Number left on chicken


cell

=NUm_C1 -Num_B

Board Þ Other food

Probability that board is used for other foods

Brd_use_Prob

-

Beta

alpha

beta





66

44


Boards used for other food?

Brd_use

-

=binomial(1,Brd_use_Prob)

Proportion transferred from board

Prop_BF

-

Pert

Min

ML

Max




0.00

0.10

0.15

Number on other foods from chicken via board

Num_OF2

-

=IF(Brd_use=0,0,Num_B*Prop_BF)

Number ingested via-cross-contamination

Num_XC

cell

=Num_OF1 +Num_OF2

Ingestion via cross-contamination?

-

-

+IF(Num_XC=0,0,1)

Table 6.37. Cooking

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or equation

Probability of inadequate cooking

Prob_AC

-


Min

ML

Max



Pert

0.05

0.10

0.15

Adequately cooked?

AC

-

=binomial(1,1-Prod_AC)




Proportion o0f cells in areas that permit a chance of survival

Prop_Prot



Min

ML

Max



Pert

0.10

0.16

0.20

Log number of cells with chance of survival

Num_Prot

log cells

=IF(Conc=0,0,LOG10(10^Conc*Prop_Prot))

Exposure time at exposure temperature for cells in "protected area"

Time_Prot

minutes


Min

ML

Max



Pert

0.50

1.00

1.50

Exposure temperature during cooking in "protected areas"

Temp_Prot

degree C


Min

ML

Max



Pert

60

64

65

D-value (at this temperature)

D_Prot

minutes

=10^(-0.139*Temp_Prot +8.58)

log reduction in "protected area"

Prto_LR

log

=IF(AC=1,"death",Time_Prot/D_Prot)

Table 6.38. Consumption.

Description

Variable

Unit

Distribution or equation

Weight of a broiler carcass

Broiler_WT

gram


Min

ML

Max



Pert

1100

1500

2500

Proportion of edible meat

Prop_edible

-

Fixed. 0.3




Weight of edible meat

Edible_WT

gram

=Broiler_WT*Prop_Edible

Serving size

Serve_size

gram


Min

Max




Cumulative

19

550


Number of servings per broiler

Num_Serve

-

=IF(Edible_WT<Serve_Size,1, ROUND(Edible_WT/Serve_Size,0)

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