Planting of the winter cereals for harvesting from June 2003 has only started under normal weather conditions. The 2002 aggregate cereal output is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes which compares to the bumper crop of 2.6 million tonnes in 2001 and the past five-year average of 1.9 million tonnes. The decline is mainly the result of a smaller area planted, caused by the late arrival of the rains at planting, coupled with considerably lower than normal yields due to an above-average moisture deficit in most of the country which prevailed during the development period. Wheat output was 45 per cent lower than the previous year and coarse grains, principally barley, was almost 37 per cent less.
Cereal imports in marketing year 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast to increase from 7.2 million tonnes in the previous year to about 7.7 million tonnes, largely reflecting the drop in production.