Prospects for the 2003 first season crops, to be harvested from late December, are poor. Following good rains at the beginning of September, below-average precipitation was experienced in most areas until mid-October affecting planting operations, normally undertaken from mid-September. The dry weather has resulted in reductions in the area planted to beans and maize and negatively affected yields of early planted crops, as well as the sweet potato crops planted in April. Most affected areas are the northern provinces of Ngozi and Kayanza. Even if more rains are received in the coming months, the harvest is already anticipated to be reduced in Ngozi, Kayanza, Gitega, Ruyigi and Bujumbura Rural provinces. At the overall level, production will decline from the good level of 2002 first season.
Prices of beans have increased by 25-50 percent according to locations over the past two months, reflecting a reduced 2002 second season output. However, prices of other basic food, sweet potato, cassava and banana remain stable, or have decreased, as a result of good production. Overall, the depreciation of the national currency by 20 percent at the end of August has lowered purchasing power in urban areas.
The deterioration of the security situation in the past months has resulted in new displacements of population escaping from violence, particularly in central and eastern provinces. The food and nutrition situation of the displaced population gives cause for serious concern. Additional emergency food aid is required.