A joint FAO/CILSS/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country recently from 20 to 26 October, estimated 2002 aggregate cereal production at some 150 000 tonnes, about one quarter less than last year’s above average harvest and slightly below the average for the previous five years. The important early millet crop decreased by 10 percent to some 89 000 tonnes while the paddy crop, estimated at about 20 000 tonnes, was lower than both last year and the average by 45 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Production of groundnut, the main cash crop, was down by more than half to 73 500 tonnes mostly reflecting a reduction in the area planted. This decline is due to a dry spell which lasted for three to five weeks from late June to early August.
Millet prices have increased steeply over the last six months, rising by 245% from May to October 2002 and passing beyond rice prices for the first time in the last five years. Although the cereal production shortfall is anticipated to be covered by commercial rice and wheat imports, millet prices are likely to stay high, given the poor harvest forecast for 2002/03 in the Gambia as well as in the whole western Sahel region. The impact on vulnerable households food security should be monitored closely.