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4.2 Scenarios (cont.)


TABLE 7
Initial Bilateral Applied Tariffs (%)

Importing country (right)
Exporting country (down)

Bangladesh

Cambodia

China

Taiwan Prov. of China

India

Indonesia

Iran, Islamic Rep. of

Japan

Korea Rep. of

Malaysia

Myanmar

Pakistan

Philippines

Saudi Arabia

Thailand

Viet Nam

Other Asia

Egypt

Other N. Africa

Bangladesh

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cambodia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

China

0

0

0

0

0

5

0

645

1000

0

0

0

0

0

0

15

0

0

94

Taiwan Prov. of China

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

India

5

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

14

50

0

30

0

25

0

0

Indonesia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Iran, Islamic Rep. of

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Japan

5

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

Korea Rep. of

2

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Malaysia

0

0

0

0

0

5

0

645

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Myanmar

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pakistan

2

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

14

0

94

Philippines

0

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

Saudi Arabia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Thailand

0

0

0

561

0

5

0

0

1000

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

94

Viet Nam

2

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

94

Other Asia

2

0

4

0

0

5

0

645

0

0

0

14

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Egypt

0

0

0

561

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

94

Other N. Africa

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

94

Côte d'Ivoire

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Nigeria

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Senegal

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

South Africa

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other Sub-Saharan. Africa

0

0

0

0

60

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Mexico

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cuba

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Argentina

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

25

0

Brazil

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Colombia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Guyana

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Uruguay

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

Other Lat. Amer. & Caribb.

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

21

0

United States

0

0

1

561

80

5

0

645

1000

0

0

0

50

0

0

0

5

18

0

Other N. America

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

645

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

EU(25)

0

0

0

0

14

0

0

645

0

0

0

9

50

0

0

0

0

63

94

Other Europe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

50

0

0

0

0

6

0

Australia

0

0

0

0

0

5

0

645

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

7

16

0

Other Oceania

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

19

0

0

Russian Federation

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

25

0

Other CIS

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

7

0


Importing country (right)
Exporting country (down)

Côte d'Ivoire

Nigeria

Senegal

South Africa

Other Sub-Saharan. Africa

Mexico

Cuba

Argentina

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Uruguay

Other Lat. Amer. & Caribb.

United States

Other N. America

EU(25)

Other Europe

Australia

Other Oceania

Russian Federation

Other CIS

Bangladesh

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cambodia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

China

11

60

11

0

10

15

0

0

0

0

0

0

6

6

0

42

12

0

0

10

19

Taiwan Prov. of China

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

India

0

60

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

13

3

0

0

15

0

0

10

13

Indonesia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

54

0

0

0

0

0

Iran, Islamic Rep. of

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Japan

0

0

0

0

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

91

33

0

0

0

0

Korea Rep. of

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10

0

0

0

0

8

10

0

89

0

0

0

0

20

Malaysia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Myanmar

11

60

11

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pakistan

11

0

11

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10

3

0

0

8

0

0

10

15

Philippines

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

38

20

0

0

0

0

Saudi Arabia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Thailand

11

60

11

0

11

0

13

0

14

0

0

0

22

6

0

93

15

0

0

10

15

Viet Nam

11

0

11

0

6

20

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

21

17

0

0

0

10

Other Asia

0

0

0

0

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

0

65

13

0

0

0

0

Egypt

0

0

0

0

0

0

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

9

0

0

0

0

0

Other N. Africa

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

54

7

0

0

10

13

Côte d'Ivoire

11

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Nigeria

0

60

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Senegal

0

0

11

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

South Africa

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other Sub-Saharan. Africa

0

60

0

0

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Mexico

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

36

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cuba

0

0

0

0

0

0

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Argentina

0

0

0

0

0

0

13

0

0

0

0

0

21

0

0

0

14

0

0

0

0

Brazil

0

0

0

0

0

0

13

0

0

189

0

0

24

6

0

96

0

0

0

0

0

Colombia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8

0

0

0

25

0

0

0

0

0

Guyana

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

13

0

0

0

0

0

Uruguay

0

0

0

0

0

0

13

0

0

0

0

0

22

0

0

54

0

0

0

10

0

Other Lat. Amer. & Caribb.

0

0

0

0

10

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

30

4

0

0

0

3

United States

11

60

11

0

8

1

13

11

9

189

0

0

18

0

0

73

7

0

0

10

10

Other N. America

0

0

0

0

15

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

17

0

0

78

44

0

0

10

0

EU(25)

0

0

0

0

10

3

0

0

13

189

0

10

12

4

0

0

6

0

0

10

10

Other Europe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

92

0

0

19

20

0

0

0

6

Australia

0

0

0

0

15

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

66

28

0

78

10

0

Other Oceania

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Russian Federation

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

91

13

0

0

0

0

Other CIS

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

9

TABLE 8
Countries assumed to designate rice as sensitive or special product

Brazil

Indonesia

Pakistan

Taiwan Prov. of China

Japan

Philippines

China

Korea Rep. of

South Africa

Colombia

Mexico

Thailand

Cuba

Nigeria

United States

EU(25)

Other Asia

Uruguay

Guyana

Other Lat. Amer. & Caribb.

Viet Nam

India

Other Sub-Saharan Africa


The six different scenarios are:

(i) Free Trade: zero tariffs, zero export subsidies, no LDC or SSP/SPP exemptions

(ii) Free Trade with SSP/SPP subject to partial reform: as under scenario (i) but developed countries that designate rice as SSP are required to reduce tariffs by 50 percent, while developing countries that designate rice as SSP/SPP are required to reduce them by 33 percent (in the spirit of the "two-thirds of developed country commitments’ rule negotiated under the URAA). LDCs are exempted from any trade reform

(iii) Free Trade with SSP/SPP excluded from trade reform: as under scenario (i) but LDCs and countries that designate rice as SSP/SPP are exempted from any trade reform.

(iv) Harbinson: Harbinson-type tariff cuts, zero export subsidies, no LDC or SSP/SPP exemptions

(v) Harbinson with SSP/SPP subject to partial reform: as under scenario (iv) but countries that designate rice as SSP/SPP are required to make 50 percent of their Harbinson commitments. LDCs are exempted from any trade reform.

(vi) Harbinson with SSP/SPP excluded from trade reform: as under scenario (iv) but LDCs and countries that designate rice as SSP/SPP are exempted from any trade reform.

Consensus in the current negotiations may converge towards the scenario (v) type of reform, the other scenarios therefore serve to establish the limits of the impacts of trade liberalisation. A shortcoming of the model concerning "concessions on minimum access" is that simulating TRQ expansion (an explicit provision in the July package pertaining to the treatment of SSP/SPP) is not straightforward. To circumvent this shortcoming, an approximation to raising TRQs is assumed to be captured by deepening the tariff rate cuts (namely, 50 percent of the Harbinson commitments).


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