The 2 previous chapters have shown that the forest resource of Ghana is under increasing pressure. Although the new forest policies seek to address the problems, the change will be slow and it will take several decades for the results to seen in forests themselves.
Ghana has embarked on an economic development path, which seeks to transform the country into a middle-income country by 2020. Through this program Ghana has become a favourite of most bilateral and multilateral donors, who are keen to prove that IMF-backed structural adjustment program can lead to sustainable improvement in the economic performance of the country. The annual economic growth rate is expected to be 8% up to year 2020.
The forest resource is not a free resource in infinite supply. The ability of the forestry sector to contribute to human welfare in direct ways under rapid economic growth needs careful examination in order to link economic growth with changes in the forest resource base. The future is unknown, therefore under the VISION 2020, certain key development issues need careful analysis in order to ascertain that forestry would fulfil its role in the development process. Among the issues to be examined are how to:
Maintain sustainable forest productive system to provide for the goods and services needed under the Vision 2020
Preserve, characterize and use the forest to guarantee employment, sustainable incomes and food supplies for the growing population, and preserve the socio-cultural value of forests to the people without causing damage to the forest resource base
Link economic growth to the conservation of forest resources in a sustainable way
3.1.1 Development questions
In resolving these key issues certain questions are eminent:
Will there be enough wood to meet the future export and domestic demands of the country in the year 2020?
Will the forest resource base be able to satisfy the demands of the Vision 2020 without further degrading the environment?
What will be the stocking and exploitation levels of the main timber species?
Can the Annual Allowable Cut be sustained?
Will Ghana be able to maintain its share of the global timber market without destroying its timber resource base?
Can Ghana continue to rely on the natural forest for its supply of future timber?
What will be the future size of the forest resource base? Will it increase or decrease?
Can the off-reserved forest be brought under sustainable management?
Will timber certification be successful in Ghana?
Will the community involvement in forest management bring about effective and efficient forest management?
Has the Forest Authority enough resources and capacity to ensure sustainable forest management?
Will a national land use plan ensure effective integration between agriculture and forestry?
Can sedentary agriculture be promoted as a solution to the shifting cultivation, thereby securing the forest base?
Finding answers to these questions requires an analysis of trends and uncertainties in the national economy and the forestry sector. The trends relate to economic, monetary, fiscal, agricultural population and forestry policies.
3.2.1 Policy trends
Economic Policy:
Structural adjustment programs will be continued to target at achieving sustained macroeconomic stability, increased support for the private sector, development of economic infrastructure, promotion of products made in Ghana in support of agricultural and industrial employment and increased investment in the wood industry
The country will continue to rely on cocoa, gold and other minerals as the country’s main foreign exchange earners. Thus conversion of forestland into cash crop farms and surface mining in forest areas will continue into the next two decades
Investment incentive and export oriented programs favouring investment in the secondary wood milling industry
Monetary and fiscal policies:
Rising inflation, high interest rates and slow economic growth
Agriculture:
Expansion of cocoa production by converting forest lands into agriculture
Slash and burn and shifting cultivation farming
Annual bushfires
Population:
High population growth and fertility rates
Increasing urban population
Limited access of rural population to services or supply of contraceptives
Forestry:
Reliance on natural forest for the supply of raw timber materials
Increasing installed milling capacity over and above the AAC
Increasing illegal logging of timber to satisfy domestic demand
Low investment in plantation development
Increasing community involvement in forest management
Reliance on few prime species for export
Increased investment in primary and secondary processing with limited growth in the tertiary processing
Institutional reforms to make the Forest Services Division semi-autonomous
Limited resources to promote sustainable forest management practices
Promotion of private sector-led plantation development programs
3.2.2 Uncertainties
Political Uncertainties:
Will there be enough political will to implement the major forest policies that have been initiated to ensure sustainable forest management?
Will local communities continue to participate in forest management?
Economic Uncertainties:
Will donors continue to support the forestry sector through the implementation of the Natural Resources Management Project to consolidate sustainable forest management?
Will the forest stumpage revenue be enough to cover the cost of forest management?
Uncertainties in the Wood industry:
The promotion of value-added production is likely to be constrained by lack of skilled labour, inadequate supply of raw material and lack of marketing expertise in mills.
The introduction of lesser-used species into the world market through further processed downstream wood may not make any impact, Ghana will continue to relay on the few prime species.
Forest Management Uncertainties:
Will the Forest Certification scheme promote sustainable forest management?
Will there be a price premium on exported certified wood products to ensure that the cost of forest management is covered?
Will the current reforms in the forestry institutions ensure efficiency, accountability and lead to sustainable forest management?
It is uncertain whether the ban of export of round log will continue to be in force and whether it could enhance sustainable forest management.
The trends and uncertainties in the future outlook of the forestry sector described above, present Ghana with two sets of scenarios. Based on a planning horizon of 20 years, the first scenario describes "business as usual" named "Muddling through Development". The second scenario termed "Sustainable Ghana" is based on the targets set under the Ghana Vision 2020 with carefully designed policies and increased investment in the forestry sector.
3.3.1 Scenario 1: MUDDLING THROUGH DEVELOPMENT
Under this scenario, there would not be any robust change and transformation in the forest sector by the year 2020. Due to the macroeconomic conditions, there will be a slow growth in the forestry sector and the annual growth rate would increase slightly from the present 1.9% up to 2.4% as it happened between 1994-95. The forestry sector will become the fourth most important foreign exchange earner after gold, cocoa and tourism. Its contribution to export earnings however will increase modestly to about 12% from the present 11%; contribution to GDP will increase from 6% to 8% by 2020.
Investment and development in the wood industry will be "business as usual" and direct employment in the wood industry will increase modestly from 100,000 to 102,000 due mainly to expansion in logging and secondary wood processing. The forestry sector will continue to support the livelihood of about 2.5 million people.
Investment in the wood industry will be in favor of secondary processing, thus increasing the installed milling capacity further by 5%. There won’t be any appreciable increase in the export of the value-added processing, as technology will not improve to any appreciable manner. Although the ban on the export of round log will continue to be enforced, its impact would remain insignificant in the wood industry due to inefficiencies in the milling sector.
The forestry sector will continue to derive its raw materials from the natural forests. Illegal logging practices would continue due to the existence of effective demand for illegal products. The AAC would continue to be exceeded annually due to increasing milling capacity. Harvesting of species would not be brought within sustainable levels and most of the prime species would become economically extinct and the economic resource life of the ten most important species would be less that 10 years. Deforestation rates will continue to increase reducing the forest resource base by almost 10%.
Surface mining both legal and illegal will intensify as gold becomes the most important export product of Ghana and the policy towards generating enough foreign exchange to offset the balance of payment deficits remains. In view of this the 2% of the production forest reserves leased for mining exploration will become mining fields. Illegal mining will intensify and the rehabilitated and abandoned mining areas will not be able to recover. Due to poor enforcement of environmental laws and regulations by the Environmental Protection Agency, the Minerals Commission and the Forestry Commission, most of the mining companies operating within the forest reserves will fail to implement their environmental management plans to rehabilitate the degraded mining areas.
The forest certification scheme will fail to take-off and the gains of the certification project, which was successfully tested and the installed log tracking mechanism, will not be sustained due to lackadaisical attitude of the industry towards the certification process. Very few wood processing companies could produce timber from certified sources.
The drive towards timber plantation development, with the private sector as the leading sector will not produce the desired results. The annual planting targets cannot be met due to the misapplication of plantation development fund by the private sector. Besides, the state-owned timber plantations could not be expanded because of poor funding and poor silvicultural treatment given to the planted trees. Donors refused to provide funds as concessionary loans to the private sector to invest in timber plantation development. The plantation development program could not achieve its target of placing at least 200,000 ha of land under plantation within 20 years.
Forest stumpage could not be increased due to administrative inefficiencies and resistance from the timber industry. Forest revenue continues to fall in real money terms and the FSD could not generate enough revenue to support its forest operations and administrative expenses without government subsidies and external supports.
The restructured forest institutions could not operate in a business-like environment due to bureaucracy and "empire building". The Forestry Commission could not decentralize effectively, leaving the regional and district level forest administration very weak and ineffective. There was very little logistical support to sustainable forest management practices, especially in the savannah regions.
The collaborative forest management philosophy could not catch up with the people because it lacked the legislative backing to make it operative. The stream of benefits, likely to accrue to stakeholders involved in forest management, were ill-defined and could not attract people to collaborate with the forest authorities in forest management. The result was that the national forest estate and the timber industry could not be developed to provide the full range of benefits to the society, in a manner that is ecologically sustainable and that conserves the environmental and cultural heritage.
Summary of Impact of Scenario 1:
Resource Base:
There would be over-exploitation of the timber and the main 40 timber species may become commercially extinc
Lumber export would decrease. This may force most secondary processing mills, currently breaking even, to fold up thereby creating unemployment in the export-based industry
Deforestation resulting from excessive logging would be exacerbated and the environmental cost to the nation would increase
Stocking and Exploitation of Main Timber Species:
At least 16 out of the 40 main marketable species would be heavily over cut at unsustainable rates, particularly in unreserved forests, while 14 other species would be hardly being utilized.
Economic Resource Life:
A business-as-usual scenario has been constructed to estimate future harvest-profile for the top-twelve favoured species based on the assumptions under Scenario 1. Table 3.2 shows the economic resource life of the twelve most vulnerable species if current exploitation levels continue.
The analysis indicates that if timber exploitation continues at the 1993/1994 levels, then all the highly favored species would be economically extinct by 2006. Since these species include some of the most valuable and heavily utilized species, it will have serious implications on the national economy. Export volume will go down by 33% and the forgone value would be US$ 65 million annually. Most of the export-based industry will have to adjust by cutting down employment levels. About 100,000 people may lose their jobs.
From the analysis, there would be no resource development and growth in the national economy if the present trends in deforestation were not minimized. In order to maximize long-term economic returns from a sustainable harvest, deforestation would have to be minimized to maintain a high value of export consistent with meeting domestic demand. With a harvest of 1.0 million m3 and domestic demand of 0.7 million m3, then the net export could be around 0.4 million m3 of round-wood equivalent (assuming that 25% of this material consisted of residues reprocessed for domestic market).
Biodiversity:
Maintenance of biodiversity would be business-as-usual. No special consideration and efforts would be made to maintain the biodiversity. This will have an adverse effect on the environment in terms of soil and water conservation and quality of biodiversity.
Development in Wood Industry:
There will be very little development in the wood industry and current structure will remain largely primary and secondary processing. The level of wood waste would be high as there would not be any incentive to adopt improved techniques in the harvesting and processing levels.
Underlying Assumptions:
Economic Policy:
Ghana will continue to pursue a structural adjustment program with priorities on achieving sustained macroeconomic stability, providing increased support for the private sector, development of economic infrastructure, promotion of products made in Ghana in support of agricultural and industrial employment and increased investment in the wood industry
The forestry sector would be expected to be the third most important export earner, generating timber export earnings up to US$ 500 million by the year 2020, an increase of 60% over the present export earnings
Liberalization of trade and payment systems will enable entrepreneurs to transact international trade. Government will continue to tighten its fiscal and monetary policies to curb inflationary pressure and regulate the exchange rates. The slide of the Cedi will slow, but the continued low prices for the export commodities and the substantial current-account deficit will maintain the downward pressure on the currency.
Investment policy and fiscal incentives will continue to favour investment in the primary and secondary processing units. Installed milling capacities will continue to exceed the AAC thereby exerting pressure on the resource base
Government will continue its infrastructure development program and new investment in roads and other infrastructural developments will continue and substantial areas of forest would be lost to these development project
Agriculture:
The expansion of the cocoa industry will continue due to attractive local prices paid to farmers and to the reliance on cocoa exports as the main foreign exchange earner. More forestlands especially those in the tropical rain forest will be converted to cocoa farms. Encroachment on forest reserves will continue as the cocoa industry expands
Food production will increase through the expansion of farm sizes. New farms will be created every year and the fallow period will continue to be shortened due to population pressure. No improvement in the farming methods of slash and burn are envisaged. Moreover, annual bushfires will continue to destroy the forest and farmlands, each year about 30 % of the vegetation cover would be destroyed by bushfires
Population:
At the current rates the population is expected to rise up to 33 million by 2020. Few people will have access to supply of contraceptives. The increased population will continue to exert pressures on the forest resource base stretching it beyond their capacities. However, the current population policy will be pursued vigorously to ensure a decline in fertility and fecundity rates; this should keep the population growth rates down
Forestry:
The forest sector will continue to pursue programs that will promote sustainable forest management, however, there would not be enough resources to support the strategy. The wood industry will continue to be export-oriented with the domestic demand remaining unfulfilled
The timber industry will continue to rely on few timber species (40) for export, although domestic preference for lesser-used species will increase due to the unavailability of the prime species on the market. Ghana will maintain its share of the global market through increased export of lumber with a steady growth in the export of tertiary wood products
Forest administration:
As part of the on-going institutional reforms, the Forest Services Division would be streamlined but it will remain inefficient and not accountable. The attitude of the personnel will remain business-minded. The FSD would be constrained by a lack of adequate resources and efficient personnel drive. The Forestry Commission would not be accountable to its clients leading to loss of confidence in the Commission
The next government after the Rawlings era did not have enough political will to implement the major forest policies that were initiated about a decent management. The multi-million dollar donor funded Natural Resources Management Program was discontinued due to ineffective management of the program and withdrawal of donor funds. Ghana lost the opportunity of consolidating sustainable forest management systems
The promotion of value-added production was constrained by lack of skilled labour, inadequate supply of raw material and lack of marketing expertise in mills. The introduction of lesser-used species into the world market through further processed downstream wood did not make any significant impact because of the absence of exquisite and good quality furniture and moulding experts
3.3.2 Scenario 2: SUSTAINABLE GHANA
The sustainable Ghana scenario requires that the supply of forest resources should be adequate to meet current and future demand of forest resources whiles maintaining the forest integrity. This calls for a reorganization of production and consumption to maximize the welfare of the people.
Under this scenario the biological richness and complexity of Ghana’s tropical forest was restored through judicious utilization of the forest resources. Ghana adopted a new forest policy that changed the consumption behavior and transformed the sector technologically. The forestry was transformed from predominantly secondary (saw milling, veneer milling and ply milling) activities into a relatively large value-added tertiary sector. The timber industry was downsized through fiscal instruments, which enabled the timber industry to develop the efficiency of its processing capacity.
There was a tremendous growth in the forestry sector and the annual growth rate would increase sharply from the present low level of 1.9% to 6% in accordance with the projections under the Ghana VISION 2020. The forest sector remained the third most important foreign exchange earner contributing to about 30% of export earning and 12% of the GDP.
Investment and development in the wood industry was directed towards value-added processing which triggered off modernization in the timber industry. The total employment in the wood industry increased from 100,000 (1998) to 250,000 by 2020 whiles the sector continued to support the livelihood of about 3.0 million people. Export of wood products contained predominantly value-added products that enhanced Ghana’s share of the international commodity market by over 10%.
The organizational capacity of the forest administration was re-established under the new Forestry Commission to allow for adequate manpower and financial capacities to address all aspects of forest management and development. The reorganised forest administration was therefore able to restore the integrity of the forest estate and expanded the forest resource base through restoration and maintenance. The forest authorities were able to apply the laws and involved stakeholders in forest management and promoted transparency in forest administration.
The forest estates both reserved and off reserve were brought under sustained yield management. Management plans, setting up broad guidelines on the management objectives and detailed activities to achieve the management objectives, were prepared to guide management and utilization of resources. Illegal logging operations were brought under control through collaborative forest management practices.
The pressure on the natural forest was reduced through a combination of measures shifting from timber production of a few species to one that allows for a variety of goods and services, which ensures the development of more profitable forestry programs and leads to a greater participation of local communities. Management strategies therefore concentrated on improving the regeneration and growth of timber and non-timber forest products.
Intensive timber plantation using fast growing exotic and indigenous timber species was promoted by both the state agencies and the private sector. Tax relief on private planted forest areas and special insurance schemes against forest fires and blight were introduced as incentives to boost investment in plantation. By 2020 over 500,000 ha of degraded forestlands had been planted and the annual yield was over 2.5 million m³.
The AAC was brought in line with the annual growth rates in both natural and planted forests. The AAC was therefore brought in line with the installed milling capacity and harvesting of species was also brought within sustainable levels.
Deforestation rates were brought under minimal control as agriculture was modernized and bushfires were minimized. Surface mining continued but was effective monitored and controlled. All degraded mining areas were restored through effective planting of fast growing species.
Ghana introduced a forest certification scheme and a log tracking system, which was managed by independent bodies in the private sector. Production of timber from both natural and planted forests was obtained from certified sources. This contributed immensely towards sustainable forest management in the country.
Forest stumpages were revised to be as close to the real value of the wood. Ghana adopted a pricing policy, which favoured the protection of highly threatened species and encouraged all forms of processed wood export. The administrative inefficiencies of the forest authorities improved and the FSD was able to generate enough revenue to support its forest operations and administrative expenses without government subsidies and external supports.
Summary of impact of Scenario 2:
Resource base:
The integrity of the forest resource base would be kept. Both the on and off-forest reserves would be covered by management plans and the entire 8.7 million ha of forestland would be under sustainable forest management. Harvesting controls would be effective to ensure ecologically and silviculturally accepted logging practices
Through the effective investment and development, the size of timber plantations will increase from the present 70,000 ha to 500,000 ha
Exploitation of Species:
All the exploitable species would be within sustainable harvesting limits. Effective log quality control methods would be used to control harvesting of trees
Annual Allowable Cut:
The sustainable management of the natural resource base is likely to increase the AAC by at least 25%. The AAC from the planted forest will be twice the present AAC form the natural forest
Biodiversity:
Biodiversity is a vital resource because it is the gateway to better and faster supplies of matter and energy to humans. Under this scenario, biodiversity would be maintained to help relieve human suffering and to decrease environmental destruction. This is likely to minimize the rate of change of the forests
Underlying Assumptions:
Economic Policy:
Ghana will continue to pursue structural adjustment program with priorities on achieving sustained macroeconomic stability, providing increased support for the private sector, development of economic infrastructure, promotion of made in Ghana products in support of agricultural and industrial employment and increased investment in the wood industry
The forestry sector would be expected to be the third most important export earner, generating timber export earnings up to US$ 500 million by the year 2020 US$ 1,000 million by the year 2020, an increase of 500% over the present export earnings
Liberalization of trade and payment systems will enable entrepreneurs to transact international trade. Government will continue to tighten its fiscal and monetary policies to curb inflationary pressure and regulate the exchange rates. The slide of the Cedi will slow, but the continued low prices for the export commodities and the substantial current-account deficit will maintain the downward pressure on the currency
Investment policy and fiscal incentives will favour investment in the tertiary value-added wood-processing sector. Fiscal polices would be used to regulate the timber industry
Government will continue its infrastructure development program and new investment in roads and other infrastructure development. However Environmental Impact Assessment would guide these activities
Agriculture:
The cocoa industry would be modernized and yields per hectare will increase. This will not create much expansion in the industry and encroachment on forest reserves would be minimal. Food production will increase through improved productivity and sustainable land use practices, minimizing the shifting cultivation practices. Annual bushfires will be brought under control
Population:
The population policy was pursued vigorously to ensure a decline in fertility and fecundity rates thus keeping the population growth rates down to 1.5% as stated under the targets of Ghana Vision 2020. The reduced population explosion exerted little pressure on the forests thereby promoting natural regeneration of degraded forestlands
Forestry:
The forest sector will continue to pursue programs that will promote sustainable forest management and there will be enough resources to support the strategy. However the emphasis on raw material sources shifted from the natural to planted forests. Indeed about 30% of the AAC was obtained from the planted forests. The wood industry will continue to be export-oriented exporting mainly value-added products. Domestic demand will be fulfilled through value-addition
Lesser-used species would be promoted to diversify the species base of the industry. Ghana will maintain its share of the global market through increased export of value-added products
Forest administration:
The Forestry Commission will decentralize to make the forest institutions more autonomous and efficient operating in business-like environment. All the Divisions of the Commission will operate with greater autonomy and would be able to generate its own revenue to support its operation. The headquarters of the Forestry Commission became efficient monitoring units supervising the implementation of forest policies by the Divisions
The Natural Resources Management Program will achieve its objectives; natural resources would be brought under sustainable management
3.4.1 Wood Export Demand
According to the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) sources, global demand for wood products is projected to increase from present levels by an average of 2.6% for sawn wood, 5% for panels and 3.2% for paper and paper board to the year 2010. Ghana's share of global tropical timber is only about 2.2%. The maintenance of Ghana’s share on the overseas market is dependent on the capability of the timber industry to produce quality tertiary or value-added wood products and, more importantly, wood products from sustainable sources as demanded by oversea markets.
To maintain Ghana’s 2.2% share of tropical wood exports, it will require a 1.57-million m3 equivalent of logs without expansion in the secondary production base. This means that all the AAC of 1.2 million m3 plus 0.57 million m3 would be needed in order not to jeopardize the sustainable management principles. This situation cannot be met under Scenario 1 but can be met under Scenario 2.
3.4.2 Projected Domesti c Demand for Wood and Wood Products
In the last section it was established that most of the domestic demand for lumber products are unfilled leading to an increase in illegal harvesting of timber. This section makes a projection of the domestic demand for lumber by year 2020 based on population growth rates and a projected economic growth rate as contained in the long-term development objectives of Ghana VISION 2020. The objective is to estimate the volume of logs that would be extracted by 2020 and its implication on the sustainable management of forest resources in Ghana. For purposes of this study, the major domestic users of wood products were analysed including the following:
Housing and Construction:
Using the current timber utilization as a guide, the volume of wood consumed by this sector can be analysed as follows: A typical house of 60 m3 requires 9 m3 of timber for windows, doors, roofing and flooring. The average housing delivery rate is about 4 units per year for every 1,000 people. The total wood requirement for 1994 was, therefore, 522,000 m3 or a per capita consumption of 0.036m3. Under Scenario 1, Ghana’s population growth rate is between 2.6% and 3.1%, indicating that Ghana’s population will double to around 33 million in the year 2020. Assuming no change in the per capita consumption of wood for housing, then the total annual wood requirement by year 2020 will be 1.116 million m3.
Transport and Service sectors:
The transport and service sector consumes wood in various forms. These include hardwoods used as rail sleepers, lumber for building mummy trucks and trolleys and road construction. It was estimated that the transport sector consumes about 1% of the wood available to the domestic market every year. According to the Ghana Vision 2020 document, the Service sector will achieve annual rate of growth of over 9% and the sector’s share of the GDP will be 35% to 43%. Assuming a proportionate growth in the consumption of wood products, it could be estimated that the total volume of annual wood demand for the sector would be 13,000 m3.
Fishing:
The local fishing industry thrives on wood for the construction of canoes and boats. According to the Forest Services Division about 10% of felling permits were granted to the small-scale canoe carvers to harvest and process timber are given to the local canoe carvers association. This means about 1,000 m3 of wood are processed annually to manufacture boats and canoes. Given that the fishing industry will grow by 12.5 %, it could be estimated that, the annual demand for wood products in this sector will grow to 22,600 m3 by the year 2020.
Art and Craft:
The cottage wood processing industry utilizes wood for various purposes. Wood is processed to provide for kitchen cooking utensils, crafts for export and indoor decorations, etc. The volume of wood used by this sub sector is not known, but it could be estimated that about 0.3% of the annual domestic wood consumption may have been used for these activities. Assuming a future growth rate as manufacturing sector, the annual demand for wood by 2020 will be 2,000 m3.
Energy and Power Industry:
The power transmission poles in the country rely on treated round woods. The current Government’s rural electrification project is dependent on the supply of treated teak. The total annual teak consumption is estimated at 300,000 m3. According to the Government’s rural electrification program, the demand for teak poles by 2020 will increase by 15%. Thus the total demand for wood for electricity would be 345,000 m3.
Mining:
The shaft mining operations rely on round log to support the prob. Most of the mining companies rely on own-source teak plantation for the supply of timber. It is, therefore, difficult to estimate actual wood consumption by this sub sector. The national plantation development strategy estimated that currently about 30,000 m3 of timber is being used in the mining industry. Given that the mining sector will grow by 10 % annually by 2020, then the total annual demand for timber could be estimated at 63,000 m3.
Table 3: Summary of the log demand scenario in the country:
|
Use |
Requested volume (million m³) |
|
Housing and construction |
1.116 |
|
Transport and Service sectors |
0.013 |
|
Fishing |
0.023 |
|
Art and Craft |
0.002 |
|
Energy and Power |
0.345 |
|
Mining |
0.063 |
|
Total |
1.563 |
|
Total Demand for log |
2,513,754 m3 / yr. |
|
Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) |
1.2 |
|
Log Demand Deficit |
1.3 |
|
= 150% AAC |
Local consumption of wood products shows a rising trend. By 2020 the total domestic requirement of lumber would be 1.517 million m3 round wood, equivalent to over 2.15 million m3, assuming a recovery rate of 40%.
Aggregating the export and domestic demands, the total future demand for round wood is equivalent to 3.35 million m3.
Under Scenario 1, the AAC from the natural forest by 2020 can satisfy only 30% of the total wood requirement. The timber industry may have to resort to the harvesting of undersized logs to satisfy the installed capacity. The industry is to be a net-importer of timber raw materials if the present installed capacity is maintained.
Under Scenario 2 however, aside from the 1 million m3 from the natural forest, the 200,000 ha of plantation forest that would have been established will yield an additional 2.5 million m3 assuming 12.5 m3/ha/year. Under the scenario 2 therefore, there would more than enough round wood to meet the domestic and foreign markets.